WPAC: UTOR - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

landfall occurred in CASIGURAN, AURORA based on PAGASA radar


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[phwxenthusiast]

here's another look at the landfall, courtesy of Aparri radar...



here's the link for the latest radar images (thankfully, looks like Aparri is staying online and is updated)...

http://prsd.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tuguegar ... dar-images

[vrif]

I found this picture of a cloudsat pass 0811 0424Z


Also, OSCAT 0811 1543Z pass

[vrif]

Looking at the model track, looks like CMC forecasts a fast retreat of the subtropical high.

[CrazyC83]

Looking at satellite and radar, I would say the landfall intensity was 110 kt.

[cycloneye]

Any news from Luzon?

[ManilaTC]

I found this picture of a cloudsat pass 0811 0424Z


Also, OSCAT 0811 1543Z pass

Hi can I kindly ask for links for the two images?

[vrif]

Hi can I kindly ask for links for the two images?

Both photos were either enlarged or stitched together. The first one, I found it online. The OSCAT image I stitched two images on top of one another in photoshop. Enjoy!

Cloudsat: http://www.cloudsat.cira.colostate.edu/

The cloudsat pass is here.
http://www.cloudsat.cira.colostate.edu/ ... 00_1AA.htm

Oscat: http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/data ... ATData.php

[vrif]

Utor is half way through Luzon

edit: New advisory from HKO: Severe Typhoon Utor is moving steadily across Luzon and is expected to enter within 800 km of Hong Kong this afternoon. Hong Kong Observatory will consider issuing the Standby signal, No. 1, later today. (12-08-2013 09:00)




WTPQ20 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1311 UTOR (1311)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120000UTC 16.5N 121.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 130000UTC 18.4N 115.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 140000UTC 19.8N 112.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 150000UTC 21.8N 110.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

[HurricaneBill]

Laguna:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=euqWZ-wRPX0[/youtube]

Pangasinan:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rt8LsbxRoTw[/youtube]

[vrif]

2Z Satellite image. Utor may have entered the SCS.

[Typhoon Hunter]

HKO will be flying synoptic recon around Utor once it's in the S China Sea. Should help gather valuable data on steering flow etc. It will be interesting to see how much of an effect 97W will have on Utor's track. The models suggesting it will pull it west for a while.

[phwxenthusiast]

HKO will be flying synoptic recon around Utor once it's in the S China Sea. Should help gather valuable data on steering flow etc. It will be interesting to see how much of an effect 97W will have on Utor's track. The models suggesting it will pull it west for a while.

that would be cool! i'm also interested with the potential cyclogenesis being depicted by models happening in the East China Sea (near Taiwan) after Utor makes landfall; looks like an enhancement of vorticity happening over there by the weekend...

anyway, do you know if they'll post updates and VDM during those recon missions (like NOAA does in the Atlantic) or will it be like Taiwan's DOTSTAR where the data appears a few hours after the flight??

[vrif]

anyway, do you know if they'll post updates and VDM during those recon missions (like NOAA does in the Atlantic) or will it be like Taiwan's DOTSTAR where the data appears a few hours after the flight??

HKO doesn't report the data on their website. They may post the images of the flight in their reports when the storm has past.

[vrif]

ASCAT 0812 0110Z pass

[RobWESTPACWX]

Busy day busy night, not just this but record breaking heat across Japan today as well. Ill be on NHKWORLD tonight covering it all.

Still doing my webcast though.... Thanks for helping sharing all this info guys!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ibNbStHTaOM[/youtube]

[vrif]

HKO's 11am track update showing probably landfall location. Looks like they are following the track consensus from the other models.

Code: Select all

Forecast Positions and Intensities
Date time   Position   Classification   Maximum sustained wind near centre
11:00 HKT 13 August 2013   18.7 N   114.7 E   Severe Typhoon   165 km/h
11:00 HKT 14 August 2013   20.4 N   112.4 E   Severe Typhoon   175 km/h
11:00 HKT 15 August 2013   22.7 N   110.8 E   Tropical Storm   85 km/h

[vrif]

In agreement with the model consensus.



WTPQ20 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1311 UTOR (1311)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120600UTC 17.2N 119.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 130600UTC 18.6N 114.0E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 140600UTC 20.2N 111.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 150600UTC 22.5N 109.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

[vrif]

Looks like Utor is in the process of reforming the eye.

[vrif]

OSCAT 0812 0358Z. GFS and EC 10m wind forecast are in good agreement with the OSCAT pass.