Central Caribbean Wave (Gulf Development?) (Is Invest 92L)

[bamajammer4eva]

:uarrow: I think they were bringing up Camille just because it's the 44th anniversary to the very weekend, jmo.

Yes I think most people know that storms like Camille develop from much longer tracked systems further out in the Atlantic. I would expect this one should just be your run in the mill, local, homegrown storm if it even forms.

[perk]

:uarrow: I think they were bringing up Camille just because it's the 44th anniversary to the very weekend, jmo.

Yes I think most people know that storms like Camille develop from much longer tracked systems further out in the Atlantic. I would expect this one should just be your run in the mill, local, homegrown storm if it even forms.

Hurricane Carla originated in the southwest carribean.It was a very intense storm.

[ROCK]

Carla was in 1961 Sept 3-16...and originated just about the same position as this one is supposed to form. Carla jogged around the Yucatan so the core never reached land until the Mid-Texas coast. This feature looks to go over the Yucatan unless guidance changes....

Carla was a cat 5 with 175mph winds....landfall as a cat 4 931MB with winds of 145mph...if that was to hit Galveston it would probably cripple the gas production producing fuel shortages nationwide. Not to mention finish up where IKE left off in taking out the island infrastructure.

[tolakram]

The Gulf is the only area at the moment with slightly above normal instability.



If shear drops as forecast I think some heightened concern is warranted, though needless hype is always a bad thing.

[perk]

Carla was in 1961 Sept 3-16...and originated just about the same position as this one is supposed to form. Carla jogged around the Yucatan so the core never reached land until the Mid-Texas coast. This feature looks to go over the Yucatan unless guidance changes....

Carla was a cat 5 with 175mph winds....landfall as a cat 4 931MB with winds of 145mph...if that was to hit Galveston it would probably cripple the gas production producing fuel shortages nationwide. Not to mention finish up where IKE left off in taking out the island infrastructure.

Rock you're right,but my point was that intense storms can originate close to home.

[Alyono]

:uarrow: I think they were bringing up Camille just because it's the 44th anniversary to the very weekend, jmo.

Yes I think most people know that storms like Camille develop from much longer tracked systems further out in the Atlantic. I would expect this one should just be your run in the mill, local, homegrown storm if it even forms.

That statement is not based upon fact. Honestly, it is the farthest from the truth as one can be

Camille developed in the Caribbean. In fact, most of the most intense hurricanes have developed either in the Caribbean or subtropical western Atlantic

Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Camille, 1935 Labor Day, Mitch, etc

[ninel conde]

here is larry cosgroves facebook thoughts on GOM development

https://www.facebook.com/larry.cosgrove?fref=ts

[bamajammer4eva]

:uarrow: I think they were bringing up Camille just because it's the 44th anniversary to the very weekend, jmo.

Yes I think most people know that storms like Camille develop from much longer tracked systems further out in the Atlantic. I would expect this one should just be your run in the mill, local, homegrown storm if it even forms.

That statement is not based upon fact. Honestly, it is the farthest from the truth as one can be

Camille developed in the Caribbean. In fact, most of the most intense hurricanes have developed either in the Caribbean or subtropical western Atlantic

Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Camille, 1935 Labor Day, Mitch, etc

My mistake. I was thinking about the many storms that when they form close by from a cold front it's slow and they never make it to be very strong or when they get picked by a trough and cold front, like the GFS is showing, often are sheared apart as they approach the Northern Gulf Coast. Definitely not always though

[perk]

here is larry cosgroves facebook thoughts on GOM development

https://www.facebook.com/larry.cosgrove?fref=ts

I don't I have a Facebook account.What did he say.

[Alyono]

My mistake. I was thinking about the many storms that when they form close by from a cold front it's slow and they never make it to be very strong or when they get picked by a trough and cold front, like the GFS is showing, often are sheared apart as they approach the Northern Gulf Coast. Definitely not always though

This isnt forming from a cold front. It's forming from a wave

[jeff]

My mistake. I was thinking about the many storms that when they form close by from a cold front it's slow and they never make it to be very strong or when they get picked by a trough and cold front, like the GFS is showing, often are sheared apart as they approach the Northern Gulf Coast. Definitely not always though

This isnt forming from a cold front. It's forming from a wave

Indeed the "modeled" development is from tropical origins out of the SW/W Caribbean. I would advise folks to beware of placing much stock in any given model solution at this time as we are still a few days from any potential development and where/if a low level center forms will likely have some bearing on the eventual track. I would put the chances of development at 50% by Friday...not sure how helpful that is nor this 5-day TWO. Looks like decent model agreement on development in 5-days will get NHC to place a 20%.

[ninel conde]

here is larry cosgroves facebook thoughts on GOM development

https://www.facebook.com/larry.cosgrove?fref=ts

I don't I have a Facebook account.What did he say.

he expects it to become tropical storm erin and hit near morgan city and be a big rainmaker inland west of I85. then he thinks a stronger storm may form from another wave and head to the GOM on a more west track

[ROCK]

0Z NAM....not looking at our feature more than I am looking at that trof lifting out quickly at 84hrs...

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

[perk]

here is larry cosgroves facebook thoughts on GOM development

https://www.facebook.com/larry.cosgrove?fref=ts

I don't I have a Facebook account.What did he say.

he expects it to become tropical storm erin and hit near morgan city and be a big rainmaker inland west of I85. then he thinks a stronger storm may form from another wave and head to the GOM on a more west track

Thanks.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I enjoy eading Larry Cosgrove's opinions but don't see how somebody can pinpoint an exact location, like Morgan city, 4-5 days before something even develops. Seems pretty irresponsible to me.

[ROCK]

I enjoy eading Larry Cosgrove's opinions but don't see how somebody can pinpoint an exact location, like Morgan city, 4-5 days before something even develops. Seems pretty irresponsible to me.

from what I understand he is a MET....but nailing a landfall this far out is pure speculation..IMO

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Oh I know he is,but all it does is get people all hyped up and start to panic over nothing. Now if there was already a storm out in the gulf and said morgan city that is a different story.

[ROCK]

0Z GFS is running

out 57hrs...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_20.png

out 72hrs

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_25.png

99hrs

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_34.png

[BigB0882]

Which low are we watching on the 99 hour map. The one north of Yucatan or the one way south inland. That makes a huge difference.

It would be pretty funny if this run had it hitting Morgan City.

[Alyono]

GFS quite a bit weaker this run. Main reason is there is no longer an upper high over the Gulf. There is now SW shear