Central Caribbean Wave (Gulf Development?) (Is Invest 92L)

[ROCK]

0Z GFS is holding serve and follows the 18Z

only 1009MB so intensity wise not very strong...weak TS maybe


whats different is that is barely clips the Yucatan whereas the other models having it going across a big chunk and into the BOC...or SGOM...

[ROCK]

0Z CMC just started....lets see where it goes....the 12Z had South Texas / Baffin Bay

[Rgv20]

0zGFS has a very weak system heading toward the Florida Panhandle by Sunday Morning....Looks like the GFS starts developing this disturbance in the NE tip of the Yucatan. Its going to be crucial to track as to where and if at all this disturbance emerges of the Yucatan, Western tip of the Yucatan would be a more westward tack.



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[Alyono]

0zGFS has a very weak system heading toward the Florida Panhandle by Sunday Morning....Looks like the GFS starts developing this disturbance in the NE tip of the Yucatan. Its going to be crucial to track as to where and if at all this disturbance emerges of the Yucatan, Western tip of the Yucatan would be a more westward tack.

http://img845.imageshack.us/img845/2558/5sby.png

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doesnt really matter in the GFS. Too much shear for anything to develop. Major flip from recent runs

[Hurricaneman]

I look at it this way for track, It bears watching anywhere from Veracruz Mexico to Tampa Florida as for intensity I expect a mid grade tropical storm like 60mph if it goes more north or northeast but maybe up to 80mph if it goes into Mexico or south Texas

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[duris]

From Twitter (no idea who this guy is, retweeted by someone else): “@EricHolthaus: Experimental NOAA model puts quite large hurricane near New Orleans in 7 days. Will watch closely. http://t.co/8mAtNUcN9r (click 'animate')”

[beoumont]

For the first time in NHC history they have mentioned possible development four days down the road.

"AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA OR THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT TIME.


And here are those forecast conducive 84 hr. environmental conditions in the NW. Carib:

[Rgv20]

0zGFS has a very weak system heading toward the Florida Panhandle by Sunday Morning....Looks like the GFS starts developing this disturbance in the NE tip of the Yucatan. Its going to be crucial to track as to where and if at all this disturbance emerges of the Yucatan, Western tip of the Yucatan would be a more westward tack.

http://img845.imageshack.us/img845/2558/5sby.png[/img]

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doesnt really matter in the GFS. Too much shear for anything to develop. Major flip from recent runs

True, if the recent runs of the GFS were to verify the ceiling for this would be a very sheared/ugly TS.

[Steve]

So it's got a weaker system, further north and east getting picked up. It also figures That erin(?) would be faster or else it develops the low out front of the trough and moves it out through the panhandle. I like that idea for later in the season even though it could verify. But if the trough flattens or pulls out, which it should by late weekend, the idea of a Texas or Mexico hit teleconnected by Utor becomes much more likely. The process should be evolving all week and will make for an interesting week ahead.

[Rgv20]

From Twitter (no idea who this guy is, retweeted by someone else): “@EricHolthaus: Experimental NOAA model puts quite large hurricane near New Orleans in 7 days. Will watch closely. http://t.co/8mAtNUcN9r (click 'animate')”

That is the Experimental 12zHWRF Basin Scale and it only goes out to 126hrs....Shows a TC in 5 days in the BOC.

[bamajammer4eva]

00z NAVGEM 120hr 6 MB stronger than 18z 126h

[Rgv20]

0zNAVGEM has it way south in the BOC in 5 days. Quite a change from the 12z run which had it moving north..



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[Alyono]

Canadian, like the GFS, has backed WAY off and now has a weak TS hitting Louisiana.

Seems the expected favorable environment is going to be hostile if the models are correct

[ROCK]

Canadian, like the GFS, has backed WAY off and now has a weak TS hitting Louisiana.

Seems the expected favorable environment is going to be hostile if the models are correct

that CMC run was jacked IMO....it had 3 lows at one point from the BOC all the way up to LA....only after 166hr did it finally consolidate to one low....also it just clipped the Yucatan vs the 0Z NAVGEM that eats a good portion of it.

[ROCK]

So it's got a weaker system, further north and east getting picked up. It also figures That erin(?) would be faster or else it develops the low out front of the trough and moves it out through the panhandle. I like that idea for later in the season even though it could verify. But if the trough flattens or pulls out, which it should by late weekend, the idea of a Texas or Mexico hit teleconnected by Utor becomes much more likely. The process should be evolving all week and will make for an interesting week ahead.

I agree...

[Steve]

It's a question of timing and consolidation. We should know wed/thurs one way or the other. The earlier scenario brings a lot of rain with the system combined with the boundary to fl, ga and sc. The slower solution, and I think the navgem is too far south with it (unless the ridge roars back with a vengeance), should bring rain a lot of rain into Texas. It's unclear though if that will be in the rgv or possibly farther north into hill country. Fwiw, I don't see a Louisiana hit without either the trough hanging around an extra couple of days or if it were to slow off the west gulf coast and a reinforcing trough slipped by and picked it up early next week. I could be wrong, but LA is low on my target list.

Post is not official information.

PS the caveat could be split energy with some riding up the front and the rest moving west across the yucatan. That scenario would lead more to the navgem solution (which IMHO is the 3rd most likely scenario if we get development behind tx and fla.)

[abajan]

Notice that even though the latest TWO states there's a "near 0 percent" chance of this becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours, there's no yellow circle with "0%":

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MID TO LATE
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN



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Nice change!

[ninel conde]

Canadian, like the GFS, has backed WAY off and now has a weak TS hitting Louisiana.

Seems the expected favorable environment is going to be hostile if the models are correct

GOM has been unfavorable north of 20n for awhile now. its best chance to be anything other than a sheared mess is to be deep in the BOC where conditions are ok

[cycloneye]

From New Orleans NWS:

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS THIS WAVE IN THE
CARIBBEAN. THE GFS MADE THE BIGGEST CHANGE OVER THE LAST 24 HRS WITH
RESPECT TO THE TROPICS WHILE THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT WITH NOTHING REALLY
DEVELOPING. THE GFS MOVES THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE
ERN/CNTRL CARIBBEAN TO THE WEST UNTIL IT REACHES THE FAR WRN
CARIBBEAN AND THEN STARTS TO TURN IT INTO THE TROUGH IN THE GULF. BY
LATE SAT A SFC LOW OVER THE CNTRL/N-CNTRL GULF DEVELOPS AND THEN
BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE NE AND INTO THE AL/FL COAST AS A TROPICAL
SYSTEM OR POSSIBLY A HYBRID. THE GFS IS PLAUSIBLE BUT NOT BUYING WHY
SUCH A WEAK SYSTEM WOULD START TO TURN RIGHT AND RE-CURVE IN THE
GULF. TYPICALLY WEAKER SYSTEMS WITHOUT A WELL DEFINED MID LVL
STRUCTURE DONT TEND TO FOLLOW THE STEERING CURRENTS AS MUCH AND WILL
JUST KEEP MOVING WEST...WHICH IS WHAT THE ECMWF DOES. IN FACT THE
ECMWF NEVER EVEN GETS THE WAVE NORTH OF 20N LAT. IF THIS WAVE DOES
NOT DEVELOP BEFORE IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN THEN THE ECMWF MAKES
FAR MORE SINCE AND THUS WHY WE ARE USING THE ECMWF WINDS RIGHT NOW
FOR FRI-SUN. IF THE WAVE CAN GET SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED IN THE CARIBBEAN
THEN WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY WATCH THIS SYSTEM AND THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MAY BE RIGHT. /CAB/

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

CORRECTED FOR MISSING SENTENCE

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR THE FORMATION OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA OR THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY MIDDLE TO LATE
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA