Central Caribbean Wave (Gulf Development?) (Is Invest 92L)

[SunnyThoughts]

I remember Erin in '95 that hit here in the Pensacola area. (Santa Rosa County, just to the east of Pensacola) Was the first hurricane we decided to actually stay home and ride out, considering it was cat1/2..we thought ok, not a huge deal..probably knock out power knock down a couple small trees..etc. Man were we wrong. It went on for hours and hours..saw trees bending and breaking everywhere. We lost about 20 trees on our property..I"d say more than 100 in our neighborhood. Had debris knee deep as far as you could see..twigs, leaves, limbs..etc. Took 7 days for the power to be restored. No damage to the house, but very scary watching it all unfold. WE said then and there...never again would we ride out an 80mph cane. Hope this latest depiction by the models of yet another "Erin" doesn't do the same thing. Thanks for all the analysis from the mets as well as the more learned posters who have studied cyclones for years. Everybody watching closely in this area.

[gatorcane]

12Z FIM into Louisiana:

[Tireman4]

Maybe they follow JB on twitter.

If they are using the ECMWF to predict genesis, I'd suggest they all be entenced to do a case study as to how and why the EC has FAILED on nearly every single world wide TC this year at predicting genesis. Why use the model that missed both major typhoons and everything else in the deep tropics?

They like intrigue? LOL

[RL3AO]

Maybe they follow JB on twitter.

If they are using the ECMWF to predict genesis, I'd suggest they all be entenced to do a case study as to how and why the EC has FAILED on nearly every single world wide TC this year at predicting genesis. Why use the model that missed both major typhoons and everything else in the deep tropics?

Right now it seems to be the only major model not developing something. Even if they do put a lot into the ECMWF, 20% still seems quite low. A 1/5 chance of something forming in the GOM in mid-August when most models form it just seems off, as you have noted.

[ROCK]

FIM clips the Yucatan as do the CMC, GFS...forms more north than before....unlike the EURO,NAM,UKMET

[hurricanehunter69]

How is NHC getting 20 percent chance of development? Very strange forecast from them. Basically, they are saying this will NOT develop and they are very confident that it will NOT develop

Good point. I'm still adjusting my brain to the 5 day TWO. This will pretty much be done in five days.

If I were a betting man, I'd be assigning much higher odds of development. Not sure what NHC is seeing here

I'd make a bet on this disturbance. It appears to be coming together rather well today, and might be a nice sized system as well. It appears the main inhibitor for it is shear. Good thing too, otherwise we could be looking down the barrel of a dangerous landfall situation. I'll nevertheless bet on the intensity forecasts gradually increasing to a cat 1. The GFS shear models are showing a window of opportunity in the NW caribbean and Mid GOM. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[otowntiger]

Thanks![/quote]

50-60% chance of development within 120 hrs. Landfall between SE LA and Apalachicola, FL Saturday PM to Sunday AM as a 65 mph TS.[/quote]

thanks for the reply and for your insight wxman57!

[Nimbus]

With the current shear model forecasts I would be expecting to read about this system in the active storms section as an invest by now?
At least we have a good ball park forecast in place here.

[wxman57]

Considering the environment in its path, I wouldn't forecast it to be a large storm. It will be forming between pockets of dry air and wind shear. This typically results in a smaller-than-average-sized storm.

[ROCK]

Maybe why the EURO refuses to see it?

[gatorcane]

Today's HPC snippet on the system confirms some weight being given to the ECMWF/UKMET solutions so far:

OVER THE LOWER LATITUDES THE 00Z/06Z GFS AND 00Z CMC TRY TO BRING
SOME SHORT RANGE ENERGY/MSTR FROM THE SRN CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND TOWARD THE GULF COAST WHILE ECMWF/UKMET RUNS SHOW A
MORE WWD TRAJECTORY. SUN AUG 11 COORDINATION WITH NHC INDICATED A
TROPICAL WAVE REACHING THE SWRN GULF BY FRI-SAT WHICH IS
REFLECTIVE OF AN ECMWF-TYPE SOLN. WEIGHTING OF THE 06Z GFS IN THE
FAVORED OVERALL BLEND IS SUFFICIENTLY SMALL NOT TO HAVE AN ADVERSE
IMPACT ON THE FCST OVER THIS AREA. THE UPDATED SFC FCST ISSUED BY
19Z WILL REFLECT TODAYS 17Z NHC COORDINATION

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... isc=pmdepd

[ROCK]

18Z NAM out 57hrs....still going into Belize

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

[NDG]

Euro vorticity shows this system buried deep in the BOC at 96 hours.

120hr also....so the EURO really hasnt moved from its runs....another GFS vs EURO battle....nice...

A battle that the GFS has won so far this season, within the 5-7 day range.

[ROCK]

18Z NAM is slower and brings this feature into the lower Yucatan heading towards the BOC at 84hrs...

[NDG]

Nice convergence starting to take place with the vorticity between Hispaniola and Venezuela.
IMO, this is the system to watch, not the vorticity north of Panama.

[petit_bois]

I'll fill my cans early this week.

[Bluefrog]

yeah no joke on the gas cans ..... BTW .... caught some sharks at petit bois last week

[CrazyC83]

Re: multi-day forecasts - we were all watching Sandy from beyond the 7 day timeframe for its (correctly predicted) final destination...

[ROCK]

Re: multi-day forecasts - we were all watching Sandy from beyond the 7 day timeframe for its (correctly predicted) final destination...

that was totally different scenario as Sandy was well established...

[Sanibel]

Nice convergence starting to take place with the vorticity between Hispaniola and Venezuela.
IMO, this is the system to watch, not the vorticity north of Panama.

I noticed that too on the visible loop.


It's like a disturbance trying to form with a TUTT pressing down on it.