Central Caribbean Wave (Gulf Development?) (Is Invest 92L)

[bamajammer4eva]

Levi thinks western gulf 2 in 3 chance in new video

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... in-threat/

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ROCK]

he must be putting more weight into the EURO, UKMET, NAM at this time....whereas the other solution is the GFS,CMC,NAVGEM.....tough call with these 6 models...

since I am a EURO hugger I lean this way but doubts have creeped in this year with its lack of genesis.....guess we will see.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Yes - on Thursday, night to be more precise.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ronjon]

I dunno the Euro has been horrible with cyclone genesis this year. Hard to argue with the GFS this season. I say a TD by thursday night.

[ROCK]

its not going to be in a hurry to develop with 40knts shear that wave in encountering.....greatest 850mb vort is now down by Panama...Low level convergence is spread out all over the place.

what a mess...


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[jlauderdal]

Stewart going out on a limb at 30%... thats still 70% it wont develop...avila will set him straight with a 20%

18Z NAVGEM is spinning up the wave under PR which by the looks of things that is doubtful because that 40knot shear pocket wont let anything stack.....as weak TS if that...takes into West FL panhandle

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

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[ROCK]

18Z FIM9.....shifted a tad west into central LA now...



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[tailgater]

18Z FIM9.....shifted a tad west into central LA now...

http://img4.imageshack.us/img4/4433/pzjs.png

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Rock can you give us a link to that model and thanks for posting those model runs for those of us that are on the road a lot w/o comp. access.

[NDG]

:uarrow: he must be putting more weight into the EURO, UKMET, NAM at this time....whereas the other solution is the GFS,CMC,NAVGEM.....tough call with these 6 models...

since I am a EURO hugger I lean this way but doubts have creeped in this year with its lack of genesis.....guess we will see.

For the last couple of days at least he has been calling for a western track towards NE MX or southern TX versus a northerly track towards the northern gulf coast.
A track towards NE MX or southern TX is nothing close to the Euro, UKMET & NAM which keep the system in the extreme southern BOC.

[perk]

18Z FIM9.....shifted a tad west into central LA now...

http://img4.imageshack.us/img4/4433/pzjs.png

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Rock that's a little more than a tad.

[Steve]

Good video from Levi. Those are exactly two of the scenarios Rock and I were discussing last night back around page 9 and 10. I also agree with Levi on the southwestern scenario being more likely. First there is a model alliance with models I tend to trust more (acknowledging they are further south than I am with it), then there is the WPAC teleconnection. Those are difficult to go against. But you can easily see the panhandle scenario if the system consolidated farther north and was quicker to find the out. GFS 500 brings in the weakness, flattens it out, drives a deep trough across the nc gulf then explodes the sw Atlantic ridge (in GFS fashion only for a short time). He gave the scenarios 2/3 and 1/3. If this develops, I'd go with 35/30/25 north Mexico-south Texas, north gulf landfall east of here, southern Mexico. 10% random west gulf stall, loop, la hit or whatever.

The above post is NOT official information.


Oh yeah Rock. You follow FIM. What tendencies have you noticed with it as far as which models it follows or precedes and what biases to watch for? Thanks man.

[thetruesms]

Re: 5-day percentages, it seems that for better or worse that NHC seems to be slipping into using the product as an awareness effort for how soon advisories may be coming. Or at least, given the limited sample of last year, that's what it appears. Yellow means people can more or less go about their day without caring much. Orange signals that hey, maybe I need to check on some things just in case. Red signals that it's time to rock and roll, we're about to have a TC. With a two-day, you can kind of get away with it, but it's much tougher when going out to five.

In some ways, this may be a better way of doing it because you can kind of acclimate people to the idea of a tropical cyclone without just dropping advisories on them.

But, if you're not going to use the percentages as actual percentages, then why bother with them at all? And while it may be a useful strategy in general, what to do about those quick hitters? It's not a real big deal to ramp people up to the idea of a storm over five days when the final landfall is well beyond that frame. But if it's going to be over and done with in less than or around five days too, it feels a bit slow.

[RL3AO]

According to Knabb, and his graph, they did pretty good from 2009-13 when they did it in house.

http://youtu.be/Z-JBepe2BTs?t=13m6s

It will be interesting to see how they handle it over the rest of the season and what the stats show afterwards.

[mpic]

Is it a sure thing that if it develops and goes west over the Yucatan, that it won't make a sharp east turn like what happened with Ike?

[cycloneye]

The 00z surface analysis has the Low Pressure closer to wave axis.

[Ptarmigan]

If it develops, most probably Friday. As for landfall, that is anyone's guess.

[ROCK]

Hey Steve, as old timers I agree with your thoughts. I just started watching the FIM9 this year so I have really havent seen any biases with it. I can tell you it doesnt deviate to much from run to run. It tends to creep up the coast like it has the last few days. It started with MX and worked up the coast and finally stopped at MS/FL. Now it is creeping back west some. I guess in MET terms it doesnt have the "wild swings" as the NAVGEM throws out every other run. Honestly I think its dealing with timing of this August trof and just how much it breaks down the ridging. Also the subsquent build back. It been holding strong now on formation and been bouncing up and down the Yucatan.

Bottom line is when / if / where this forms will be key. Right now we have a TW running into a 40knt shear zone with the best vort near Panama. I am inclined to think it will form as the NAM has it (YES I SAID THE NAM) near Belize and make its crossing there into the BOC. Same as the EURO and UKMET. Where is goes from there is a big guess. I could buy a break down in steering if it sits in the BOC......also could buy a MX or STX TS hit.....just need to wait and see where a COC forms then watch the models for an upstream environment. right now we have nothing close to a consolidating low.

though I dont disregard the CMC and the GFS, I do think they are too fast with formation which brings it north too soon. Just my thoughts at the moment....probably change in the near future....

The above post is NOT official information.

[ROCK]

:uarrow: he must be putting more weight into the EURO, UKMET, NAM at this time....whereas the other solution is the GFS,CMC,NAVGEM.....tough call with these 6 models...

since I am a EURO hugger I lean this way but doubts have creeped in this year with its lack of genesis.....guess we will see.

For the last couple of days at least he has been calling for a western track towards NE MX or southern TX versus a northerly track towards the northern gulf coast.
A track towards NE MX or southern TX is nothing close to the Euro, UKMET & NAM which keep the system in the extreme southern BOC.

I was talking about the western solution by 3 models vs the northern solution by the other 3.....not so much landfall areas.

[ROCK]

speaking of NAM....0Z into Belize and southern BOC


http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

[Rgv20]

0zNAM thru 84hrs forecast enough ridging to be in place to keep this disturbance heading west into the BOC and like I said yesterday it is going to be crucial as to where exactly this disturbance tries to get organize in the NW Caribbean.



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