Central Caribbean Wave (Gulf Development?) (Is Invest 92L)

[BigB0882]

What is the NAM showing just NE of Puerto Rico? Is that something trying to close off or is that an ULL?

[Rgv20]

What is the NAM showing just NE of Puerto Rico? Is that something trying to close off or is that an ULL?

That is an ULL at the 500mb level.


Looks like the 0zGFS backed away from any significant development..

[bamajammer4eva]

Looks to me on the GFS on this run like it doesn't develop anything from the Caribbean at all but instead a weak low moves south out of AL and then it moves back north.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Maybe we are at that time where the models start having runs showing no development then by tomorrow night start showing it again. My memory is not that great but seems to me they have done this many times before. Or maybe they are right and nothing will develop at all like I voted for

[ROCK]

the EURO didnt do much with it either. Maybe it wasnt out to lunch....

GFS- that low looks frontal in nature.....and not so much tropical....hard to tell.

0Z NAVGEM is running....developes it pretty fast and thru the Yucatan channel at 84hrs......from 72hrs to 84hrs hardly moves?

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ROCK]

still ends up same as 18Z.....FL panhandle as a TS

[bamajammer4eva]

FWIW, the GFS and Navgem both have the apparent low in the same position @ 114hrs. Much stronger on Navgem but on the GFS anomaly loop, it does show it coming from the Caribbean instead of being frontal.

GFS Loop http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html



NAVGEM Loop http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

[southerngale]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NORTHEASTWARD TO HISPANIOLA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER BERG

[Senobia]

Curious as to why there's no invest yet, being all the models show 'something'. Thoughts?

[Hurricane Alexis]

Curious as to why there's no invest yet, being all the models show 'something'. Thoughts?

There's no low to track and any development seems to be after 3 days, so it can all change.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[fci]

Curious as to why there's no invest yet, being all the models show 'something'. Thoughts?

It's that new world of 5 day forecasting where you can have very little now but a better chance in a few days. Like the other response said; nothing to track yet.

[Hammy]

At this point given what the models have been showing, it seems that the low will probably not form until about Wednesday--that's about when the invest will likely show up.

[chaser1]

FWIW, the GFS and Navgem both have the apparent low in the same position @ 114hrs. Much stronger on Navgem but on the GFS anomaly loop, it does show it coming from the Caribbean instead of being frontal.

Watched Levi Cohen's video and was a "good watch". I disagree on one particular point however. He was leaning towards a more southern development of the Caribbean wave presently in the East/Central Caribbean. On one point, he was tending to lean toward the more southern Euro model. Not only is the Euro less detailed in seeing small scale cyclogenisis, but that model hardly notices the wave verses the CMC, FIM, and NOGAPS which lean more northward. Other point of note, is Levi makes a reference to Florence of 1988 as an analogue storm/set up. Based on that set up, his analysis is that a newly forming cyclone (especially if a few degrees farther south), would tend to be shoved more westward and then ultimately be forced west under the Texas "heat ridge". Looking at the 500mb flow that he showed however, the comparison to those dates during 1988 is not nearly as similar as one might think. Back then, the Westerlies were very zonal and if one looks at the mean 576mb line, it pretty much cuts across the country at about Detroit Michigan's latitude. In fact, the only perturbance in the flow is a weak cutoff low and this is the limit of any factor that might have weakened the ridge at that time. Nonetheless, enough of a weakness prevailed to allow Florence to move northward, then bend back to the NW as this weakness pulled out.

In our current scenario, I see the flow as a bit more progressive and notice how there is a somewhat more pronounced shortwave (also well underneath the much receded westerlies) and winds are southerly near Yucatan starting at 90 hours and as time progresses the entire S. Gulf has southerly winds out through 120 hrs. Interesting to note, the 576 line at about this time frame is north of the US/Canadian border. Since no real energy extends to the south, those steering winds are light and any storm would not seem to move much more than 10mph. Lastly, it seems to me that the CMC and GFS are often notorious in their models being a "bit fast". So, I would guess that any development, might take more than the 48 hours or so than those models are indicating. I anticipate the GFS to soon jump on the bandwagon with this system, but probably not for about 24 hours.

[caneman]

Sure looks to be coming together this morning. Consolidating with cloud curvatures.

[Blown Away]

Nearing the heart of the season and these models still continue to develop weak systems at best...The path this wave may take is over warm Caribbean/GOM waters, but it has to be unfavorable upper levels and/or dry air these models see...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR JAMAICA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA

[cycloneye]

The Cayman Islands radar wlll be interesting to watch as the wave moves west.

[perk]

Nearing the heart of the season and these models still continue to develop weak systems at best...The path this wave may take is over warm Caribbean/GOM waters, but it has to be unfavorable upper levels and/or dry air these models see...

Check out the OZ CMC,it has a potent system in the eastern Atlantic.

[ninel conde]

Nearing the heart of the season and these models still continue to develop weak systems at best...The path this wave may take is over warm Caribbean/GOM waters, but it has to be unfavorable upper levels and/or dry air these models see...

2010, 2011, 2012 and now this season the northern gom, north of 25n has simply been unfavorable. isaac last year hit as a cat1 but struggled to get that strong. we still have this season a ridge over texas which isnt allowing much to happen. it appeared a few days ago a big trough was going to replace it. not so sure now. any low that gets into the northern GOM is going to deal with alot of shear.

[jlauderdal]

Nearing the heart of the season and these models still continue to develop weak systems at best...The path this wave may take is over warm Caribbean/GOM waters, but it has to be unfavorable upper levels and/or dry air these models see...

sept 1 prime time starts here, anything before is "gravy"