Central Caribbean Wave (Gulf Development?) (Is Invest 92L)

[ronjon]

Convection increasing south of JAM this am. There is also a broad CC circulation present. If convection continues to flare and given the model support, we may have an INVEST today.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-avn.html

[cycloneye]

Here is this mornings update of 16L by the pouch group.

ECMWF: One could argue that this feature is simply the Panama Low, which the models tend to overdevelop. Similar to yesterday, tracking toward the Bay of Campeche, with minimal increase in OW.

GFS: Outlier! The feature tracked remains SEPARATE from the Panama Low. P16L is only an OW max for the first 36 hours, becoming a pouch during the 48-60 hour period as it passes just west of Cuba. Once in the Gulf, P16L weakens to an OW max again. Not as strong as in yesterday's forecast. "Landfall" in the Florida panhandle at 108 hours.

UKMET: Similar to ECMWF. I track a tiny trough on the northern side of the Panama Low for the first 36 hours. At 48 hours, a distinct pouch is finally depicted. It is only a distinct pouch again at 72 hours as it tracks over southern Yucatan, becoming a very tiny and dissipating OW max in the Bay of Campeche, weakening over water.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013/P16L.html

[ronjon]

Wow I guess that pouch group never use the CMC or NAVGEM - too funny. No wonder the GFS is termed an outlier.

[NDG]

Wow I guess that pouch group never use the CMC or NAVGEM - too funny. No wonder the GFS is termed an outlier.

Good point!!!

[Frank2]

I'd have to agree with the Pouch Group - it's just the same area of regional convection just moreso and probably not much will develop from this...

[Stormcenter]

Andrew and Katrina were in August.

Nearing the heart of the season and these models still continue to develop weak systems at best...The path this wave may take is over warm Caribbean/GOM waters, but it has to be unfavorable upper levels and/or dry air these models see...

sept 1 prime time starts here, anything before is "gravy"

[Frank P]

and Camille on Aug 17th... my opinion is that the season normally gets cranked up the last two weeks in August...

[Frank P]

Will be interesting to see what model camp wins out with this next system... winner could be the model of choice for the following storms to come... regardless, climatologically it's time for things to crank up, and sooner rather than later... esp since most of the expects are forecasting an above normal season...

[gatorcane]

The 06Z GFS has been trending away from development. In fact the 06Z run looks like it just has some weak low in the Gulf. With the GFS and ECMWF so lackluster on development now, the NHC call of 30% development chances may not be looking too bad afterall despite all the criticism they got from this board yesterday

[Tireman4]

Andrew and Katrina were in August.

Nearing the heart of the season and these models still continue to develop weak systems at best...The path this wave may take is over warm Caribbean/GOM waters, but it has to be unfavorable upper levels and/or dry air these models see...

sept 1 prime time starts here, anything before is "gravy"

Allen and Alicia were in August....

[ROCK]

GFS has backed off and the EURO has never been so keen on anything but something in the BOC.....

the FIM9 still thinks AL/MS as of 06Z....still hasnt given up....NAVGEM either

guess we will see....right now there is nothing really organized down there...

[ROCK]

06Z NAM still thinks BOC also

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

[Ptarmigan]

Charley was in August.

[senorpepr]

Recon mission cancelled. Another in the outlook for the 15th at 1800Z.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 131401
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT TUE 13 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-074

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 22.5N 89.0W AT 15/1800Z.
3. REMARKS: INVEST IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FOR
13/2100Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 13/1130Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP

[perk]

Will be interesting to see what model camp wins out with this next system... winner could be the model of choice for the following storms to come... regardless, climatologically it's time for things to crank up, and sooner rather than later... esp since most of the expects are forecasting an above normal season...

I certainly expect things to ramp up soon.

[Frank P]

Well looking at the latest sat vis loops, it sure looks like it slowly continues to improve its overall structure, and starting to get that nice sharp wave look to it too... would expect an INVEST to be declared soon if this progress continues... my non-professional opinion only...

[Dean4Storms]

Well looking at the latest sat vis loops, it sure looks like it slowly continues to improve its overall structure, and starting to get that nice sharp wave look to it too... would expect an INVEST to be declared soon if this progress continues... my non-professional opinion only...

Agree and you can see a ridge aloft beginning to take shape over it. If convection continues to grow this is a player in my opinion.

[northjaxpro]

Well looking at the latest sat vis loops, it sure looks like it slowly continues to improve its overall structure, and starting to get that nice sharp wave look to it too... would expect an INVEST to be declared soon if this progress continues... my non-professional opinion only...

Agree and you can see a ridge aloft beginning to take shape over it. If convection continues to grow this is a player in my opinion.

Yes, I agree. You can definitely see an anticyclone developing over the area in the western/southwestern Caribbean.

[tailgater]

Really starting to get it's act together on Visible sat. loop. Should be a Floater on it already IMHO and a Invest later today. Elongated SW to NE ATTM. Which will win out, the Trough to the SW or the Wave the NE, if any?

My bad, I didn't see the earlier few post.

[tropicwatch]

Wind shear is still high but is starting to come down some, no 40kts over it anymore. Also you can see the high reaching over the area.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=