ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

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ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#1 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Aug 13, 2013 2:20 pm

Model discussion for Invest 92L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 13, 2013 2:26 pm

12z UKMET likes 92L.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+84 : 20.0N 94.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 17.08.2013 20.0N 94.0W WEAK

12UTC 17.08.2013 20.2N 94.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 18.08.2013 20.5N 95.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 18.08.2013 21.3N 95.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 19.08.2013 22.1N 96.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 19.08.2013 22.6N 96.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#3 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 13, 2013 2:30 pm

cycloneye wrote:12z UKMET likes 92L.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+84 : 20.0N 94.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 17.08.2013 20.0N 94.0W WEAK

12UTC 17.08.2013 20.2N 94.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 18.08.2013 20.5N 95.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 18.08.2013 21.3N 95.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 19.08.2013 22.1N 96.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 19.08.2013 22.6N 96.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY




those cordinates are in the BOC....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#4 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 13, 2013 2:34 pm

Still the Tropical Models are not out to see how SHIP has 92L on intensity.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#5 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 13, 2013 2:34 pm

12Z FIM9 back west some....now back over eastern LA....

http://fim.noaa.gov
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#6 Postby CaneCurious » Tue Aug 13, 2013 2:52 pm

cycloneye wrote:Still the Tropical Models are not out to see how SHIP has 92L on intensity.

when can we expect the first tropical models to be out?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#7 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 13, 2013 2:54 pm

CaneCurious wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Still the Tropical Models are not out to see how SHIP has 92L on intensity.

when can we expect the first tropical models to be out?


Later this afternoon or evening.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#8 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 13, 2013 2:57 pm

12Z EURO into the BOC still. Develops the low near Honduras attm....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... =Animation
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#9 Postby CaneCurious » Tue Aug 13, 2013 3:11 pm

ROCK wrote:12Z FIM9 back west some....now back over eastern LA....

http://fim.noaa.gov

Rock, can you post a graphic of the FIM?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#10 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 13, 2013 3:19 pm

CaneCurious wrote:
ROCK wrote:12Z FIM9 back west some....now back over eastern LA....

http://fim.noaa.gov

Rock, can you post a graphic of the FIM?


Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#11 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 13, 2013 3:30 pm

ROCK wrote:12Z EURO into the BOC still. Develops the low near Honduras attm....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... =Animation


But further north than earlier runs.
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#12 Postby Rgv20 » Tue Aug 13, 2013 3:38 pm

Looks like the 12zECMWF Ensembles are showing 2 possible scenarios for 92L track....Northern Gulf Coast or Western Gulf Coast. Still plenty of uncertainty as to where 92L is going to go.


Friday Morning
Image

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Saturday Morning...Southern LA or BOC..
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Monday Morning ...NE Mexico/South Texas
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#13 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Aug 13, 2013 3:42 pm

12Z FIM runs seems reasonable to me. I like the timing of development with it as well. Land interaction (mostly the Yucatan) may prove to be the biggest issue here.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#14 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Aug 13, 2013 3:50 pm

18z NAM agrees with the 12z Euro and UKMET moving it into the BOC.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... mageSize=M
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#15 Postby Rgv20 » Tue Aug 13, 2013 4:11 pm

:uarrow: Almost identical to the 12zUKEMT..

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#16 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 13, 2013 4:28 pm

:uarrow: plenty of ridging there.... 8-)
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#17 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Aug 13, 2013 4:52 pm

Momma always said stick with the one that brought you there, NAVGEM picked this development up in the SW Carib. Sea before the others.

So I'm sticking with it, weak to moderate Tropical Storm into the western FL Panhandle. May I not go down with the ship!


:wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#18 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 13, 2013 4:57 pm

18z GFS is stronger.

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#19 Postby petit_bois » Tue Aug 13, 2013 5:00 pm

dang... we are starting to see some consensus here.
GFS, Navy and Canadian with multiple NE GOM'er results.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#20 Postby ronjon » Tue Aug 13, 2013 5:00 pm

Yikes 18z GFS now down in moderate TS range. Looks like wxman57s forecast of a 65 mph TS might come true.
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