ATL: ERIN - Models

[South Texas Storms]

Model discussion for Invest 93L here.

[cycloneye]

The 12z ECMWF develops 93L.

[cycloneye]

Still the Tropical Models are not out to see how SHIP has 93L on intensity.

[ROCK]

the long range FIM9.....sends this to about 55W then up and out to sea....but its the long range so taken with a grain of salt.

[TheStormExpert]

Still the Tropical Models are not out to see how SHIP has 93L on intensity.

Any word on when they should be out?

[South Texas Storms]

Still the Tropical Models are not out to see how SHIP has 93L on intensity.

Any word on when they should be out?

Probably will run them with the 0z runs in about 4 hours.

[ozonepete]

The 12Z NAVGEM from this morning has a solution which makes a lot of sense. It shows the wave in front of 93L moving more slowly and developing less which allows 93 to catch up with it and then they merge. The GFS has something pretty close to this although it kind of fades the first wave out as their energy converges.



The models since yesterday have been showing the first wave as a very small area of vorticity ahead of a much larger one. That's actually a pretty impressive forecast: Just look at the latest rgb satellite image. There's the leading little wave with it's small bubble of convection and the much larger one (93L) behind it. Two waves this close that have just come off the African coast frequently converge so I'll bet this forecast validates.

Luis, isn't that first wave what we were calling Pouch 20L?

[Gustywind]

The 12Z NAVGEM from this morning has a solution which makes a lot of sense. It shows the wave in front of 93L moving more slowly and developing less which allows 93 to catch up with it and then they merge. The GFS has something pretty close to this although it kind of fades the first wave out as their energy converges.



The models since yesterday have been showing the first wave as a very small area of vorticity ahead of a much larger one. That's actually a pretty impressive forecast: Just look at the latest rgb satellite image. There's the leading little wave with it's small bubble of convection and the much larger one (93L) behind it.

Luis, isn't that first wave what we were calling Pouch 21L?

Very interresting there Ozonepete . Nice analysis. Looks like things are slightly heating up as we're approaching mid august.

[cycloneye]

First model plots.

WHXX01 KWBC 132331
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2331 UTC TUE AUG 13 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932013) 20130813 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130813 1800 130814 0600 130814 1800 130815 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 17.0W 14.2N 19.2W 14.8N 22.0W 15.5N 25.0W
BAMD 14.0N 17.0W 14.1N 18.9W 14.4N 20.8W 15.0N 23.0W
BAMM 14.0N 17.0W 14.2N 19.2W 14.7N 21.6W 15.2N 24.3W
LBAR 14.0N 17.0W 14.0N 19.5W 14.3N 22.4W 14.8N 25.2W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 29KTS 36KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 29KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130815 1800 130816 1800 130817 1800 130818 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.9N 28.3W 16.1N 35.8W 15.4N 42.0W 14.5N 47.5W
BAMD 15.9N 25.3W 18.3N 30.1W 21.5N 33.3W 24.1N 34.0W
BAMM 15.9N 27.2W 17.2N 33.2W 18.4N 37.6W 19.0N 40.9W
LBAR 15.4N 28.4W 17.5N 34.5W 19.8N 39.3W 21.5N 42.6W
SHIP 44KTS 55KTS 55KTS 54KTS
DSHP 44KTS 55KTS 55KTS 54KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 17.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 14.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 12.1W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

00z plots.

WHXX01 KWBC 132348
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2348 UTC TUE AUG 13 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932013) 20130814 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130814 0000 130814 1200 130815 0000 130815 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.9N 18.0W 13.3N 19.7W 14.1N 21.9W 14.9N 24.7W
BAMD 12.9N 18.0W 13.1N 19.6W 13.5N 21.2W 14.2N 23.0W
BAMM 12.9N 18.0W 13.3N 19.9W 13.9N 21.9W 14.6N 24.2W
LBAR 12.9N 18.0W 13.0N 20.2W 13.5N 22.8W 14.0N 25.5W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 29KTS 36KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 29KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130816 0000 130817 0000 130818 0000 130819 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.4N 27.8W 15.9N 34.5W 14.9N 39.3W 13.4N 42.5W
BAMD 15.3N 25.0W 18.0N 29.7W 20.8N 33.6W 22.9N 36.0W
BAMM 15.4N 26.8W 17.2N 32.4W 18.5N 36.8W 19.4N 40.7W
LBAR 14.9N 28.4W 17.1N 34.3W 19.3N 39.2W 19.8N 42.9W
SHIP 45KTS 58KTS 57KTS 57KTS
DSHP 45KTS 58KTS 57KTS 57KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.9N LONCUR = 18.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 13.3N LONM12 = 16.0W DIRM12 = 262DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 13.4N LONM24 = 13.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[gatorcane]

Latest model plots, saved image:

[Steve H.]

The deep tropic models will start bending westward over time.

[hurricaneCW]

I am curious about its future track prospects. Seems like there will be a few weaknesses if the gfs is correct heading forward, which would induce recurvature around 50-55W, however that's too far out to know for sure and we don't even know if this will develop into anything significant.

[CrazyC83]

Pretty aggressive on the intensity, bringing it to near hurricane intensity despite the surrounding conditions...

[floridasun78]

i see this have same issue as other dry air and cool water

[TheStormExpert]

Pretty aggressive on the intensity, bringing it to near hurricane intensity despite the surrounding conditions...

I thought 92L was the one that they were being more aggressive with and bringing to near hurricane status?

[hurrtracker79]

Appears the 8/14 0Z GFS is now developing 93L into at least a depression.

[Blown Away]

06z TAFB 72 hour position has both our Invests as "Possible Cyclones" with 92L heading towards Mexico in the southern BOC and 93L moving slowly across the Atlantic...


Shear not the issue longterm per 00z...

[cycloneye]

This is the 06z run. The 12z should come out shortly.

WHXX01 KWBC 141200
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1200 UTC WED AUG 14 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932013) 20130814 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130814 0600 130814 1800 130815 0600 130815 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.9N 19.5W 13.5N 21.3W 14.2N 23.6W 15.0N 26.5W
BAMD 12.9N 19.5W 13.0N 21.0W 13.4N 22.6W 14.2N 24.5W
BAMM 12.9N 19.5W 13.2N 21.4W 13.6N 23.5W 14.3N 26.0W
LBAR 12.9N 19.5W 13.0N 21.7W 13.5N 24.2W 14.1N 26.9W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 31KTS 40KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 31KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130816 0600 130817 0600 130818 0600 130819 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.5N 29.8W 15.5N 35.7W 14.2N 39.6W 13.5N 42.3W
BAMD 15.4N 26.8W 18.4N 31.4W 20.7N 34.7W 22.3N 36.9W
BAMM 15.1N 28.7W 16.6N 33.9W 17.0N 38.2W 17.2N 42.2W
LBAR 15.1N 29.8W 17.7N 35.3W 19.8N 39.9W 19.9N 43.3W
SHIP 50KTS 62KTS 61KTS 61KTS
DSHP 50KTS 62KTS 61KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.9N LONCUR = 19.5W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 13.1N LONM12 = 17.1W DIRM12 = 262DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 13.4N LONM24 = 14.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Blown Away]

06z...Shear not the issue longterm for 93L