ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[ROCK]

I agree. I think tomorrow is going to be the day. I am going to go out on a limb and say that they bypass TD and designate it a weak TS when Recon gets in tomorrow.

good call....so close to land and a threat to intensify rapidly....

[Tyler Penland]

I think I see somewhat of a MLC taken shape around 17.9N 84W.....might be upgraded tomorrow once back over water IMO....

Area looks suspicious, but what do you mean "back over water"? 17.9N, 84W is over water.

Also, a snippet from FFC's AFD this morning:

THE 00Z GFS IS CONSIDERED OUT TO LUNCH AS IT BRINGS A TROPICAL
LOW TO THE FL/AL COAST SATURDAY MORNING. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS
CONSIDERED TO BE MORE REASONABLE.

So we can add them to the list of offices dismissing the north GOM.

[ROCK]

I think I see somewhat of a MLC taken shape around 17.9N 84W.....might be upgraded tomorrow once back over water IMO....

Area looks suspicious, but what do you mean "back over water"? 17.9N, 84W is over water.

cross the Yucatan tomorrow...

[wxman57]

wxman57 as of right now assuming it does develop where do you see 92L possibly making landfall?

No clear signs of an LLC yet. I suspect it'll be upgraded tomorrow.

Somewhere between Veracruz, MX and Tampa, FL.

My money is still on the northward track maybe between New Orleans and Apalachicola. However, I'm starting to hedge my bet a little and putting a few bucks on the west to Mexico track. There's a question as to the trof will be deep enough to pick it up.

[Tireman4]

wxman57 as of right now assuming it does develop where do you see 92L possibly making landfall?

No clear signs of an LLC yet. I suspect it'll be upgraded tomorrow.

Somewhere between Veracruz, MX and Tampico, FL.

Wait, they pay you thousands of dollars for that? LOL. My goodness. Ha ha...no I agree with you...this could be interesting...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tropicwatch]

Somewhere between Veracruz, MX and Tampico, FL.

[ROCK]

wxman57 as of right now assuming it does develop where do you see 92L possibly making landfall?

No clear signs of an LLC yet. I suspect it'll be upgraded tomorrow.

Somewhere between Veracruz, MX and Tampa, FL.

My money is still on the northward track maybe between New Orleans and Apalachicola. However, I'm starting to hedge my bet a little and putting a few bucks on the west to Mexico track. There's a question as to the trof will be deep enough to pick it up.

the NAM, NAVGEM so far dont think so....

[wxman57]

Somewhere between Veracruz, MX and Tampico, FL.

I don't see "Tampico" in my post.

[Rgv20]

wxman57 as of right now assuming it does develop where do you see 92L possibly making landfall?

No clear signs of an LLC yet. I suspect it'll be upgraded tomorrow.

Somewhere between Veracruz, MX and Tampa, FL.

My money is still on the northward track maybe between New Orleans and Apalachicola. However, I'm starting to hedge my bet a little and putting a few bucks on the west to Mexico track. There's a question as to the trof will be deep enough to pick it up.

It's a very hard forecast...reminds me of Debby from last year. My thinking from the start has been west to Mexico.

[CrazyC83]

Trough timing is the key I believe. Trough miss = stuck in the southern Gulf, crawling towards Mexico. Trough hit = rush to the northern Gulf coast. A few hours could change everything...

[BigA]

Trough timing is the key I believe. Trough miss = stuck in the southern Gulf, crawling towards Mexico. Trough hit = rush to the northern Gulf coast. A few hours could change everything...

Very true. And where the LLC forms is also critical. A degree or two farther north or south could be important down the line as to whether the trough picks it up.

[wxman57]

I wish I was more confident it would be picked up by the trof and taken northward. There's no guarantee of that. I see the 12Z GFS backed off on development. I'd say it's probably wrong.

[NDG]

The problem with the GFS is that it has been wanting to get the H85 vorticity move away from the disturbance way too fast northwards,
I think it still has the right idea of the movement in the longer term but I don't see how in the world it will make landfall in SE LA like it shows by late Friday night/predawn hours of Saturday morning.
Reminds me of the issues it had with TS Andrea.

[fendie]

NWS WFO in Houston/Galveston, TX made a graphic illustrating the model discrepancies (two most likely scenarios for track). See image and disco below:



"Quite a bit of talk about the tropics this morning. Still some uncertainty regarding the eventual evolution of the tropical wave currently in the Caribbean. Models are generally grouped in two camps as depicted above. Thier solutions will likely deviate from run-to- run until something actually gets better organized. While fun to look at, don't put a lot of confidence on individual models just yet..."

[tropicwatch]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think the western wave scenario is becoming less and less likely due to 92 giving the appearance that it will organize and possibly be a TD or better in the next 24hrs.

[SunnyThoughts]

Considering both systems we are watching now (92L, 93L) Will be interesting to see which one develops first in order to become a named storm. I suppose its possible that neither develop to that point..doesn't seem very likely though.

[ScottNAtlanta]

There seems to be a problem with buoy 42057 not reporting. The data is over 2hrs old. It reported W winds at 7:50...the last report was SE. Of course, it is right in the middle of where you would want to receive data

[weatherwindow]

Trough timing is the key I believe. Trough miss = stuck in the southern Gulf, crawling towards Mexico. Trough hit = rush to the northern Gulf coast. A few hours could change everything...

The New Orleans WFO forecast discussion mentioned a concern about the trof tending to set up further west(of the CWA) which would increase the chances a track near/over them...althought the discussion is long...scroll to tropical wave section
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/product.php?sit ... suedby=LIX

Grtz from KW, Rich

[NDG]

12z CMC/GEM shows 92L missing the trough and track westward towards the upper MX/southern TX coast.
It shows the trough coming down the MS river valley progressing eastward, showing a weaker Bermuda ridge thus allowing for the trough to continue eastward instead of digging down across the MS river valley like the GFS keeps showing.

[Alyono]

I think some of these WFOs are out to lunch in their ECMWF hugging. Totally ignoring everything the model has shown this season world wide