ATL: ERIN - Models

[cycloneye]

12z run.

WHXX01 KWBC 141238
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1238 UTC WED AUG 14 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932013) 20130814 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130814 1200 130815 0000 130815 1200 130816 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.9N 20.8W 13.7N 22.5W 14.7N 25.1W 15.6N 28.3W
BAMD 12.9N 20.8W 12.8N 22.5W 13.0N 24.2W 14.0N 26.1W
BAMM 12.9N 20.8W 13.3N 22.6W 14.0N 24.8W 15.0N 27.5W
LBAR 12.9N 20.8W 13.1N 23.0W 13.5N 25.5W 14.3N 28.4W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 49KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130816 1200 130817 1200 130818 1200 130819 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.4N 31.8W 16.5N 37.8W 15.5N 42.0W 14.9N 45.4W
BAMD 15.5N 28.3W 19.3N 32.9W 22.0N 36.2W 24.0N 38.0W
BAMM 16.1N 30.4W 18.1N 35.8W 19.1N 40.6W 20.3N 44.9W
LBAR 15.3N 31.3W 17.9N 36.8W 19.8N 41.1W 19.8N 44.2W
SHIP 57KTS 63KTS 57KTS 54KTS
DSHP 57KTS 63KTS 57KTS 54KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.9N LONCUR = 20.8W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 19.1W DIRM12 = 266DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 13.3N LONM24 = 16.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

The 12z GFS no longer shows a weakness in the central Atlantic as it depicts 93l moving towards the northern islands at 180 hours.

[otowntiger]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013081412/gfs_mslp_wind_atltropics.html

The 12z GFS no longer shows a weakness in the central Atlantic as it depicts 93l moving towards the northern islands at 180 hours.

you're right but if that solution verifies intensity wise it would seem to be of little consequence.. It looks as if it barely makes it across with a closed circulation. (of course intensity is most difficult to predict)

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

12z CMC and 12z GFS tracks the system in a general westward direction through 180 hrs...

12z CMC
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

12z GFS
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[galaxy401]

If the air wasn't so stable, this storm could be a problem down the road.

[abajan]

GFDL Ensembles

http://data1.gfdl.noaa.gov/hurricane/gf ... ensity.gif

But this is the 93L Models thread, not 92L

[Ivanhater]

GFDL Ensembles

http://data1.gfdl.noaa.gov/hurricane/gf ... ensity.gif

But this is the 93L Models thread, not 92L

Doh!

[alienstorm]

The models are getting busier

[Blown Away]

12z Intensity...

[MiamiensisWx]

Interestingly, the more-reliable DSHP and LGEM models are the most aggressive in this case. Perhaps they rely upon a more-southerly track than that of the ECMWF, for instance. Models have shifted SW in the first three days, meaning more time over warmer water (=more unstable air).

[gatorcane]

If the air wasn't so stable, this storm could be a problem down the road.

It could still be a problem down the road because it just means it could get further west and then redevelop once it finds better conditions.

I am definitely paying attention to the fact the models are bringing this further west.

[Blown Away]

18z...Track seems to be flattening out through 120 hours...Never understand why models like to jump NW in the far E Atlantic and many times the system ends up moving WSW initially...

[gatorcane]

Latest model plots:

[cycloneye]

Much,much west at 18z GFS.

[Blinhart]

Anyone else noticing a Katrina/Andrew like path?

[cycloneye]

Continues west.

[pgoss11]

Continues west.

http://oi39.tinypic.com/o0un1s.jpg

Looks like this system could be trouble down the road. Strong ridging keeps it on a westerly track.

[CrazyC83]

With all those ridges, this may be a storm with no recurve at all...also notice that new storm up towards the Azores...

[Gustywind]

Continues west.

http://oi39.tinypic.com/o0un1s.jpg

Cycloneye, something to keep an eye if this trend west amplifies in the next runs. Beginning to be close of the Northern Windwards, Southern Leewards... Hopefully we're (for the moment ) far away from reality .