ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[hurricanekid416]

Anybody have the most recent ascat pass

[ROCK]

I think some of these WFOs are out to lunch in their ECMWF hugging. Totally ignoring everything the model has shown this season world wide

you go with what got you here. ..the EURO on average has outperformed the GFS and every other model the past 3 years. That is factual data. Unitl it falls on its face it must be considered...or falls on its face more than what it has this season....

[NDG]

I think some of these WFOs are out to lunch in their ECMWF hugging. Totally ignoring everything the model has shown this season world wide

Even ECMWF last night abondoned its earlier idea of a westward track towards MX showing the trough/weakness to stick around the MS river valley and not to progress eastward like the CMC now shows.

[NDG]

I think some of these WFOs are out to lunch in their ECMWF hugging. Totally ignoring everything the model has shown this season world wide

you go with what got you here. ..the EURO on average has outperformed the GFS and every other model the past 3 years. That is factual data. Unitl it falls on its face it must be considered...or falls on its face more than what it has this season....

Didn't you see the facts from last year? The Euro did not outperformed the GFS last year. The ECMWF only made up some ground with Sandy, only in its longer range.
And so far this year, the Euro has not done any better than the GFS, IMO.

[SouthDadeFish]

I think some of these WFOs are out to lunch in their ECMWF hugging. Totally ignoring everything the model has shown this season world wide

you go with what got you here. ..the EURO on average has outperformed the GFS and every other model the past 3 years. That is factual data. Unitl it falls on its face it must be considered...or falls on its face more than what it has this season....

It has performed better with track for systems that are already established. I think what Alyono is saying is that the Euro has missed genesis many times this past year.

[ROCK]

the EURO will be out in a hour or so....I think WxMn57 gets it early since he pays for it....(hint)...this run should clear everything up....

[ROCK]

I think some of these WFOs are out to lunch in their ECMWF hugging. Totally ignoring everything the model has shown this season world wide

you go with what got you here. ..the EURO on average has outperformed the GFS and every other model the past 3 years. That is factual data. Unitl it falls on its face it must be considered...or falls on its face more than what it has this season....

Didn't you see the facts from last year? The Euro did not outperformed the GFS last year. The ECMWF only made up some ground with Sandy, only in its longer range.
And so far this year, the Euro has not done any better than the GFS, IMO.

I did not say last year did I? I said on average of the past 3 years the EURO has outperformed the GFS and every other model. Its one hiccup was Debby.....and that was because of her center relocations....please read my entire post..

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like a center is forming farther north...convection is consolidating.

[Alyono]

I think some of these WFOs are out to lunch in their ECMWF hugging. Totally ignoring everything the model has shown this season world wide

you go with what got you here. ..the EURO on average has outperformed the GFS and every other model the past 3 years. That is factual data. Unitl it falls on its face it must be considered...or falls on its face more than what it has this season....

if you would have followed the other basins as I do for my job, one would see that the EC has been utter trash until there is a major TC all year. Must have totally botched their parameterization as NOTHING develops now in the EC. Following the EC for genesis is to totally ignore science

[SouthDadeFish]

It would be nice to get a hit from ASCAT soon since recon isn't going out today.

[Alyono]

I'm not seeing anything on satellite imagery that would warrant a recon today

[SouthDadeFish]

Most likely will see a red circle out there for the 2pm outlook (in my opinion). Waters are very warm and shear seems pretty light at the moment.

[northjaxpro]

Man it never fails. The model wars get tired and old people. They really do. Let'ss just wait for a true LOL fix to be established and initalized, then we can get to the nuts and bolts as to what data the models can go from that point forward.

If you all want to fuss and argue about the models and discuss model wars, keep it in the Models discussion forum.

[Alyono]

Man it never fails. The model wars get tired and old people. They really do. Let'ss just wait for as true LOL fix to be established and initalized, then we can get to the nuts and bolts as to what data the models can go from that point forward.

If you all want to fuss and argue about the models and discuss model wars, keep it in the Models discussion forum.

This is such a common mistake that really needs to be addressed.

DYNAMICAL models are capable of forming their own center. They do NOT need a center initialized by NHC. In fact, the ECMWF makes NO relocation or insertion of the initial vortex. Only the normal data assimilation scheme is used. The other models do use a relocation scheme. However, this relocation is usually on the order of 10s of km.

If there is no center at all, the models are still quite useful as they can show where a center is likely to form and the general environment. Still very valid tracks. Saying they are not is simply wrong.

ONLY the statistical models need to wait for a center to become established

[ROCK]

that X is way to far NE...get on a 1KM scan and look...you will see a weak rotation in the midlevels.

[BigA]

I definitely see a mid-level circulation developing around roughly 18.2 N 83.5 W. If a low-level circulation develops (or is currently developing) under it, we've got a tropical cyclone in the works.
This would also be a bit north of where most of the models initialize the system, indicating that a more northerly track is more likely.

A lot of times a mid-level circulation isn't indicative of a low-level circulation forming, so this is no guarantee that we're in the process of cyclogenesis. The next several hours should give a good indication of if the mid-level circulation is transient, or associated with a low-level circulation.

[petit_bois]

Man it never fails. The model wars get tired and old people. They really do. Let'ss just wait for a true LOL fix to be established and initalized, then we can get to the nuts and bolts as to what data the models can go from that point forward.

If you all want to fuss and argue about the models and discuss model wars, keep it in the Models discussion forum.

any of us on the gulf could be impacted withing 3 days...
it's ok if we try and sort through the models at this point
rather than waiting until we have 24 hours to plan.

[northjaxpro]

The models are indeed useful. I am not stating that at all. I am just one who is waiting for Recon to go out there and confirm the data needed for more validation of a true fix of where the center is located.

I just get tired of the repeated model war discussion. I just think worrying about EURO vs GFS and how they have performed over the past few years are for another time and afor discussion. That is just my opinion.

[NDG]

I'm not seeing anything on satellite imagery that would warrant a recon today

I agree, there is no defined COC at the surface that I can see, it still looks very broad. The recon would had not found an LLC had it gone out today.
I think it has a better chance of an LLC getting going by later tonight or tomorrow morning.

[ROCK]

The models are indeed useful. I am not stating that at all. I am just one who is waiting for Recon to go out there and confirm the data needed for more validation of a true fix of where the center is located.

I just get tired of the repeated model war discussion. I just think worrying about EURO vs GFS and how they have performed over the past few years are for another time and afor discussion. That is just my opinion.

you should have been here in 2004.....