ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5899
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#341 Postby MGC » Wed Aug 14, 2013 4:21 pm

Yes, no doubt there is now some obvious cyclonic spin to 92L at the mid levels. So, where will the LL center form if it does? UL conditions are near ideal right now, down the road when it gets into the GOM it might be a different story. That ULL or shear axis is stubborn or so it appears, so expect so increased shear as 92L enters the GOM. I am going with the northern solution. On WWL TV at noon, the model the met ran showed a TC approaching the Louisiana coast, can't remember the name of the model but it was one the station pays for, not the GFS or Euro......MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.
0 likes   

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#342 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 14, 2013 4:23 pm

thats where I have the low as well on that map....easy to see on 1KM view.... :uarrow: NWS in Houston has good idea. Follow the EURO.... :lol:

if its moving at 15 knts and 180 east of the Yucatan, I was off by 2 hours...10pm.. 8-)
Last edited by ROCK on Wed Aug 14, 2013 4:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
tailgater
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3339
Joined: Sun Jul 11, 2004 9:13 pm
Location: St. Amant La.

Re: Re:

#343 Postby tailgater » Wed Aug 14, 2013 4:24 pm

hurricanekid416 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Here is an image of where NHC has the low. Looks like it is on the western side of the big blob, so that would mean there is some shear impacting this system:

Image



I doubt that's where the llc is if there was a llc which it may not have its where the storm is wrapping up not saying nhc is wrong because they are professionals


NHC has all the tools to tell where an LLC is, now that's not saying one will not form to the northeast with the T-storms but I think they have it right and this system will likely stay weak if the Low level circualtion and mid level circulation don't align which is very possible.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 29112
Age: 73
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#344 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Aug 14, 2013 4:25 pm

wxwatcher4405 wrote:Is there a chance this makes it as far west as Tx/La border?

I think the possibilities that have been previously discussed are the most likely. Those are N Gulf Coast from NO East to the FL panhandle or Northern Mexico somewhere S of Brownsville. Personally I am still split on which one to go with, but if the LLC initializes further West than the convection I would pick the Southern route. However, based on modeling right now I think the N Gulf solution is most likely. Intensity is up in the air for me.
0 likes   
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Image

cigtyme
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 69
Age: 51
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2010 10:57 am
Location: Houma, La

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#345 Postby cigtyme » Wed Aug 14, 2013 4:26 pm

MGC, sure it wasn't BoB Breck and his damn Vipr model. LoL
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5899
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#346 Postby MGC » Wed Aug 14, 2013 4:31 pm

Not Bob Breck, it was Ch 4. It will be interesting to see what Bob has to say tonight.....MGC
0 likes   

User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#347 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Aug 14, 2013 4:34 pm

It was prolly the RPM
0 likes   

User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3383
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#348 Postby tropicwatch » Wed Aug 14, 2013 4:38 pm

This is a starting to be a nice looking system with outflow to the north and northeast. It also appears to be being pulled a little more northward.

Image
0 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'

User avatar
stormhunter7
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 762
Joined: Mon May 26, 2008 3:13 pm
Location: Panama City Beach, Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#349 Postby stormhunter7 » Wed Aug 14, 2013 4:46 pm

Just a note, IMO... The NAVGEM (New Navy Model) has done extremely well with 92L and its current position is pretty close to what system had on sun/mon/tues.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

User avatar
CaneCurious
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 160
Joined: Wed Aug 25, 2004 1:40 pm
Location: Kenner, LA

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#350 Postby CaneCurious » Wed Aug 14, 2013 4:48 pm

MGC wrote:Not Bob Breck, it was Ch 4. It will be interesting to see what Bob has to say tonight.....MGC

It was Derek Kevra on WWL and it was the Precisioncast Model. He posted on his Facebook page that the model changed its tune this afternoon and shows more of a sheared system affecting us here in SELA.
0 likes   

Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2776
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#351 Postby Frank P » Wed Aug 14, 2013 4:49 pm

Gee, if it continues that path as shown in the vis sat loop above it might just clip the NE section of the Yucatan Pens... and not spend very much time over land...
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#352 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 14, 2013 4:56 pm

Frank P wrote:Gee, if it continues that path as shown in the vis sat loop above it might just clip the NE section of the Yucatan Pens... and not spend very much time over land...


That would probably send it racing northeast with the trough as well...so many possibilities.
0 likes   

Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#353 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Aug 14, 2013 5:00 pm

It gets deeper and organized more than the models have indicated before the Yucatan it very well could go more poleward against the weakening Atlantic Ridging over the Gulf.
0 likes   

User avatar
Blinhart
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2079
Age: 48
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:13 pm
Location: Crowley, La.

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#354 Postby Blinhart » Wed Aug 14, 2013 5:05 pm

My question is what is the likely hood of 92L to miss the trough that is dipping down into the Northern GoM and end up staying in the GoM meandering around for a few days until there is something there to actually direct it to go either West, North, or North East?

Right now my thinking is that if it develops a little faster and a little more to the East than what the NHC is depicting right now, I have a feeling final landfall will be somewhere in between Sabine Pass and Tallahassee. Now if it decides to stay a week wave and doesn't form, it could possibly die over the flats of the Yucatan Peninsula.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

wxwatcher4405
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 7
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 9:52 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#355 Postby wxwatcher4405 » Wed Aug 14, 2013 5:24 pm

Blinhart wrote:My question is what is the likely hood of 92L to miss the trough that is dipping down into the Northern GoM and end up staying in the GoM meandering around for a few days until there is something there to actually direct it to go either West, North, or North East?

Right now my thinking is that if it develops a little faster and a little more to the East than what the NHC is depicting right now, I have a feeling final landfall will be somewhere in between Sabine Pass and Tallahassee. Now if it decides to stay a week wave and doesn't form, it could possibly die over the flats of the Yucatan Peninsula.




Wow...Sabine Pass...do you really think it can go that far west?
0 likes   

User avatar
Blinhart
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2079
Age: 48
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:13 pm
Location: Crowley, La.

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#356 Postby Blinhart » Wed Aug 14, 2013 5:29 pm

wxwatcher4405 wrote:
Blinhart wrote:My question is what is the likely hood of 92L to miss the trough that is dipping down into the Northern GoM and end up staying in the GoM meandering around for a few days until there is something there to actually direct it to go either West, North, or North East?

Right now my thinking is that if it develops a little faster and a little more to the East than what the NHC is depicting right now, I have a feeling final landfall will be somewhere in between Sabine Pass and Tallahassee. Now if it decides to stay a week wave and doesn't form, it could possibly die over the flats of the Yucatan Peninsula.




Wow...Sabine Pass...do you really think it can go that far west?


The difference between Sabine Pass and New Orleans is only a couple hundred miles, so yeah I think that is the furthest West it would be able to make it if it takes the Northern Path, normally I usually would of said Vermillion Bay, but my gut is telling me to look at the Sabine Pass area.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#357 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 14, 2013 5:32 pm

I am almost 99% sure Sabine Pass is a tad west of guidance or east depending on what camp you are in.... :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22978
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#358 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 14, 2013 5:33 pm

Blinhart wrote:
The difference between Sabine Pass and New Orleans is only a couple hundred miles, so yeah I think that is the furthest West it would be able to make it if it takes the Northern Path, normally I usually would of said Vermillion Bay, but my gut is telling me to look at the Sabine Pass area.


But that's a big difference with respect to the predicted mid to upper-level wind flow. East of Vermilion Bay, winds are out of the southwest aloft. West of there, NW winds aloft. Hard for a storm to track against the upper level winds and get to Sabine Pass.
0 likes   

User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#359 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Aug 14, 2013 5:35 pm

I still say if it doesn't really develop, heads to south TX, if it does develop (and I think it will) should move quicker and make a landfall near MS/AL
0 likes   

User avatar
Rgv20
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2466
Age: 38
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 5:42 pm
Location: Edinburg/McAllen Tx

#360 Postby Rgv20 » Wed Aug 14, 2013 5:37 pm

Afternoon Discussion out of the NWS in San Antonio..

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN RAIN
FREE SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY WITH ONE CAVEAT. THERE IS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE YUCATAN MOVING WESTWARD. THIS FEATURE MAY
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND THEN MOVE INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ON FRIDAY. SOME NUMERICAL MODELS FORECAST A SFC
CIRCULATION FORMING BY SATURDAY OVER THE SW GULF. THE MOVEMENT OF
THIS FEATURE MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR RAIN-FREE FORECAST FOR
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TREND TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Return to “2013”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests