ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[ROCK]

looks to be moving WNW and should be inland later tonight or early morning...it wont have time to develop...cloud tops are warming already...

[USCG_Hurricane_Watcher]

Looks like we're going to be busy this weekend...awesome.

[stormhunter7]

Hurricane Field Program Update – Wednesday, Aug. 14, 2013 4:30 PM Eastern

http://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2013/08/14 ... m-eastern/

[Steve]

Panama, not sure what you are seeing. The envelope is moving almost due west right now based on the visible link you posted,

[colangie]

Im thinking Landfall anywhere between Lousiana to Navarre Florida. Maybe as a CAT 1 ....who knows...waiting game...

Ok hope thats better!

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[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I wouldn't be surprised to see this become a tropical depression or even a tropical storm before moving ashore late tomorrow morning. Rotation in the lower levels is becoming increasingly apparent on satellite animations and the overall structure of 92L is much better defined compared to this morning. Convection has weakened over the past few hours, but that should've been expected given diurnal minimum.

As far as my thoughts on the system after making landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula tomorrow, I think it should feel the developing weakness and start turning more poleward. By the weekend, it should start a north-northeast turn into eastern Louisiana or Mississippi.

Intensity is complicated. The Gulf of Mexico shouldn't be excessively favorable, but if the trough hangs back like some models are suggesting, the system could benefit from being on the southeast flank of an upper-level trough where divergence is maximized. Divergence helps create thunderstorms which lower pressures and help cyclones intensify. In addition, if we actually have a developed system by the time it enters the Gulf of Mexico, it could keep its anticyclone which could mitigate the negative effects of shear. The GFDL ensembles depict this...perhaps a little too much.

[Alyono]

looks to be moving WNW and should be inland later tonight or early morning...it wont have time to develop...cloud tops are warming already...

maybe tomorrow afternoon is when it will move over the Yucatan. Not before

[ozonepete]

looks to be moving WNW and should be inland later tonight or early morning...it wont have time to develop...cloud tops are warming already...

maybe tomorrow afternoon is when it will move over the Yucatan. Not before

For my two cents, it crosses the northern Yucatan tomorrow morning. But that's the model consensus so I'm not going out on a limb here.

Oh, and Rock, buddy, Luis already pointed out it's at DMIN now so we expect warming tops. But DMAX will be coming soon...

[Alyono]

as I said in the model thread, still looking for a June-like sheared mess weak TS. I am thinking the model depictions of a cane are hogwash. One can alreayd see on satellite that conditions are starting to become less favorable. It has outrun the upper high and should be in SW shear until final landfall now

[cycloneye]

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH...AND IS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE IN SQUALLS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE
DISTURBANCE REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. AFTER
THAT...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO SPREAD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND BELIZE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.



[/b]

[Gustywind]

Latest on 92L. Here is the TWD.


A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM
22N85W TO THE LOW NEAR 17N84W TO 14N84W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 KT. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE
DISTURBANCE REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 14N-24N BETWEEN
79W-90W WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION BEING E OF THE LOW AND S
OF WESTERN CUBA. AFTER THURSDAY...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 92, 2013081500, , BEST, 0, 178N, 850W, 30, 1007, LO

[Gustywind]

Latest SSD numbers. Stays at same intensity.


DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
14/2345 UTC 17.5N 84.3W T1.0/1.0 92L
14/1745 UTC 17.7N 84.8W T1.0/1.0 92L
14/1145 UTC 17.6N 82.6W TOO WEAK 92L

[Gustywind]

Latest on 92L. Here is the TWD.


A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM
22N85W TO THE LOW NEAR 17N84W TO 14N84W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 KT. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE
DISTURBANCE REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 14N-24N BETWEEN
79W-90W WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION BEING E OF THE LOW AND S
OF WESTERN CUBA. AFTER THURSDAY...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

92L not 98L, sorry for the mistake . My apologizes my friends .

[cycloneye]

Gusty,I fixed it.

[Gustywind]

Gusty,I fixed it.

Thanks You're everywhere Cycloneye .

[stormhunter7]

any reason why 92L was taking of SSD Floater page?

[hcane27]

any reason why 92L was taking of SSD Floater page?

They have it in the Eastern Pacifi c ....

[ROCK]

any reason why 92L was taking of SSD Floater page?

Weird it was removed.....you can go to RAM and get 4km floaters....or you can due Nasa and get 1km view but only in infared and water vapor..

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[wxman57]

00Z tropical models in (ignore BAMs). Good concentration toward SE LA/MS/AL. Only the old NGP (NOGAPS) and Canadian take it west. Good sign, as I always worry when my track is close to the NGP. Still looks like no less than light to moderate shear in its path. On the high side of moderate north of 25-26N. Could have an exposed center west of convection at landfall on N. Gulf Coast.