Blown Away wrote:I'm still puzzled why no significant activity being shown in these long range GFS/Euro models given the above average predictions...GFS 384 gets you to September, so any CV system at that point would be 10 days off before any land threat...I guess I'm use to past models showing so many phantom storms and maybe these updated models are getting so precise that they are only supposed to show @15 storms this season...Plenty of time for that...

I think it's simply because the models aren't reliable past one week. Too many variables. I expected something this week, and if that doesn't come to pass and model runs at the end of this week don't start to show consistent development then I think we're realistically looking at no development until September, or possibly very late August.
This Friday runs will be good (my opinion only) at showing development until the 23rd (the following Friday).
Here's the thing i think we should all be looking forward too.
If this is a slow season, though all signs point to an active season, it will be a terrific opportunity to learn why and improve forecasting. You learn more from failure than success IMO.