Global model runs discussion

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gatorcane
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Re:

#5801 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 13, 2013 12:14 pm

CalmBeforeStorm wrote:http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

The 12z GFS tracks a 1009-1012 low in the MDR that ends up at about 18n 42w but moving west under a nice ridge. Hard to believe that a low in that position at this time of year wouldn't develop.


The 06Z GFS has this low also (see my post a few posts up).
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5802 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 13, 2013 12:23 pm

Blown Away wrote:I'm still puzzled why no significant activity being shown in these long range GFS/Euro models given the above average predictions...GFS 384 gets you to September, so any CV system at that point would be 10 days off before any land threat...I guess I'm use to past models showing so many phantom storms and maybe these updated models are getting so precise that they are only supposed to show @15 storms this season...Plenty of time for that... :D


I think it's simply because the models aren't reliable past one week. Too many variables. I expected something this week, and if that doesn't come to pass and model runs at the end of this week don't start to show consistent development then I think we're realistically looking at no development until September, or possibly very late August.

This Friday runs will be good (my opinion only) at showing development until the 23rd (the following Friday).

Here's the thing i think we should all be looking forward too.

If this is a slow season, though all signs point to an active season, it will be a terrific opportunity to learn why and improve forecasting. You learn more from failure than success IMO.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5803 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Aug 13, 2013 2:39 pm

Blown Away wrote:I'm still puzzled why no significant activity being shown in these long range GFS/Euro models given the above average predictions...GFS 384 gets you to September, so any CV system at that point would be 10 days off before any land threat...I guess I'm use to past models showing so many phantom storms and maybe these updated models are getting so precise that they are only supposed to show @15 storms this season...Plenty of time for that... :D


GFS 240 for a pattern update, GFS 144 for something solid to get excited about...anything beyond is taking up your bandwidth and time you will never get back..this board is getting like nfl players at the end of training camp, they just want the season to get started and hit something... :double:
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#5804 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Tue Aug 13, 2013 11:55 pm

Active days ahead being portrayed by the CMC.

Image

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Re:

#5805 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Aug 14, 2013 12:10 am

Hurricane Alexis wrote:Active days ahead being portrayed by the CMC.

Image

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question i have is 93l suppose slow down because this model got 93l in gulf by next tue still ???
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5806 Postby Blinhart » Wed Aug 14, 2013 5:14 pm

looks like they decided to make 92L meander in the gulf a little longer before heading towards Sabine Pass as a pretty descent size storm. 93L looks like will take a Katrina, Andrew path.
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Re: Re:

#5807 Postby ninel conde » Wed Aug 14, 2013 5:33 pm

floridasun78 wrote:
Hurricane Alexis wrote:Active days ahead being portrayed by the CMC.

Image

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question i have is 93l suppose slow down because this model got 93l in gulf by next tue still ???



i cant believe thats 93L in the GOM. no way on earth it gets there in 6 days. i assume its 92L
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Re: Re:

#5808 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Wed Aug 14, 2013 5:56 pm

ninel conde wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:
Hurricane Alexis wrote:Active days ahead being portrayed by the CMC.

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

question i have is 93l suppose slow down because this model got 93l in gulf by next tue still ???



i cant believe thats 93L in the GOM. no way on earth it gets there in 6 days. i assume its 92L


The CMC showed the steering currents collapsing in the GOM if 92L misses the trough. The Euro is currently showing that.
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Re: Re:

#5809 Postby RL3AO » Wed Aug 14, 2013 5:57 pm

ninel conde wrote:
i cant believe thats 93L in the GOM. no way on earth it gets there in 6 days. i assume its 92L


93L is approaching the islands in that image.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5810 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 15, 2013 7:23 am

18Z GFS shows another storm gaining strength at 160H at the same time it destroys Erin further west.

Image
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5811 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Thu Aug 15, 2013 11:27 am

I don't see Erin like the mets are saying in the future. They talk about SAL, cooler sst's and shear after 5 days. The GFS disappates Erin. This is the model that showed nothing in the long range. Too much model hugging is my perspective. I don't see those factors being a huge affect on erin. That's my take and not official by any means. Whatever that means. :D
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#5812 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 15, 2013 12:40 pm

12Z GEM has a strong system possibly impacting Bermuda on a recurve path well East of the United States.

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5813 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Aug 15, 2013 11:46 pm

00z GFS 384HR

Double fish

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#5814 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 16, 2013 8:12 am

The 00Z ECMWF shows a large area of low pressure that rolls off Africa a little more than a week from now heading in a WSW direction south of the Cape Verde Islands. It also shows a couple of stronger waves that emerge over the next week that will likely continue to moisten the air over the Atlantic.

This one you see here just SW of the Cape Verde Islands could be one to watch here on Aug. 26th:

Image

The GFS also shows the system as well:
Image
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5815 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Fri Aug 16, 2013 11:35 am

According to CSU Aug 15-31 should be active. They mention MJO phase1-2 coming and the wave about to come off Africa. If the models are correct active times ahead. :eek:
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#5816 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 16, 2013 12:44 pm

Judging by the 12Z GFS, things are about to crank up the next couple of weeks.

Here is a loop of the 12Z GFS:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... n_atl.html
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Re:

#5817 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 16, 2013 9:21 pm

gatorcane wrote:Judging by the 12Z GFS, things are about to crank up the next couple of weeks.

Here is a loop of the 12Z GFS:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... n_atl.html


Finally some good action coming our way...Fortunately all mostly recurve fishy storms...I think predicting this year would bring more landfalls seems like a guess based on these GFS runs...
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Re: Re:

#5818 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Aug 16, 2013 9:26 pm

Blown Away wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Judging by the 12Z GFS, things are about to crank up the next couple of weeks.

Here is a loop of the 12Z GFS:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... n_atl.html


Finally some good action coming our way...Fortunately all mostly recurve fishy storms...I think predicting this year would bring more landfalls seems like a guess based on these GFS runs...

Mentioned this in another thread, but doesn't the GFS have a tendency to underestimate ridging though?
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Re: Re:

#5819 Postby hurricaneCW » Fri Aug 16, 2013 9:33 pm

Blown Away wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Judging by the 12Z GFS, things are about to crank up the next couple of weeks.

Here is a loop of the 12Z GFS:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... n_atl.html


Finally some good action coming our way...Fortunately all mostly recurve fishy storms...I think predicting this year would bring more landfalls seems like a guess based on these GFS runs...[/quot

I don't know about that, there's much more ridging in the east than in previous years. Anything beyond a certain time frame becomes extremely sketchy and the gfs often either under forecasts a ridge or breaks it down too quickly in the long range. It also tends to show storms plowing into ridges sometimes. Saying they will fish right now is really just a guess until we actually start seeing the storms form.

We are finally seeing the storms though on the gfs, which strongly suggests activity is about to really pick up, the wave over western Africa could be the beginning.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#5820 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Fri Aug 16, 2013 10:08 pm

Not necessarily. The gfs has shown waves of storms lined up a couple times already this season with no developments. Same with 92l. Might have some waves coming off but until conditions out in the Atlantic change don't expect much action out there unless you like watching storms like the last three.
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