ATL: ERIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SunnyThoughts]

May beat out 92L with a renumber

[floridasun78]

so 93l going beat 92l to be next name system?

[cycloneye]

Small tight circulation.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Small tight circulation.

http://oi41.tinypic.com/119z8ue.jpg

Quicker to organise then?

[OURAGAN]

If i am correct, this tight circulation is at about 12-12,5N and not at 13°N.

[chaser1]

If i am correct, this tight circulation is at about 12-12,5N and not at 13°N.

Yeah, that looks about right to me too. Maybe around 12.5 and near 22W?? On the other hand, while looking at the loop, there still seems to be some level circulation that hangs back to the east a bit so just not sure. Based on the tighter COC based on the recent pass, one would think 93L might develop first, but am gonna throw my guess in....that 92L develops into a depression first, and into a named storm first. Main reason simply because 93L still remains too embedded within the ITCZ for the moment, though it'll likely end up wrapping up the whole damn thing right into it in time.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Brand new ASCAT.

Seems to me like we have a tropical cyclone.

[cycloneye]

Impressive closeup ASCAT pass made at 6:30 PM EDT.

[cycloneye]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE NEAR THE CENTER OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT A HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AFTER THAT...
THE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AND IT HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...THE LOW WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[TheStormExpert]

Tropical Cyclone tonight @ 11pm?

[northjaxpro]

Tropical Cyclone tonight @ 11pm?

Looking at the latest ASCAT Pass, I don't see any reason why not.

[Gustywind]

8 PM Discussion.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM
19N22W TO THE LOW NEAR 13N22W. THE SYSTEM REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR ON THURSDAY.
A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 22W-
25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 07N-15N
BETWEEN 16W-33W. CURRENTLY...THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND THURSDAY AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[CrazyC83]

That definitely looks closed. Do they pull the trigger right away though, or wait for persistence?

[Gustywind]

Latest SSD numbers. Not much changes in terms of intensity.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
14/2345 UTC 13.8N 22.4W T1.0/1.0 93L
14/1745 UTC 13.1N 21.8W T1.0/1.0 93L
14/1200 UTC 12.5N 20.8W TOO WEAK 93L

[CrazyC83]

Latest SSD numbers. Not much changes in terms of intensity.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
14/2345 UTC 13.8N 22.4W T1.0/1.0 93L
14/1745 UTC 13.1N 21.8W T1.0/1.0 93L
14/1200 UTC 12.5N 20.8W TOO WEAK 93L

That's a sign they might wait a bit for more convection, even though we have a closed LLC.

[Caribwxgirl]

So what are the conditions ahead of 93L and what are the early thoughts on where is it likely to end up?

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 93, 2013081500, , BEST, 0, 138N, 230W, 30, 1008, LO

[cycloneye]

So what are the conditions ahead of 93L and what are the early thoughts on where is it likely to end up?

Too early to tell a track as is 7 days away from the islands. There is some dry air in Central Atlantic that may stop development.

[Caribwxgirl]

Ok thanks. I'm gonna keep a close watch over next 7 days then

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

No reason not to upgrade.