ATL: ERIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Great loop.

http://tropicaltidbits.com/satellite/images/eatl_ir.gif

[TheStormExpert]

Looks as if the Atlantic is finally coming to life!

[Blown Away]

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL932013 08/15/13 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
SHEAR (KT) 11 9 6 3 2 4 12 14 13 14 13 8 4

Shear values low longterm...

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al932013_al052013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201308150146
NONE
NOTIF

[cycloneye]

AL, 05, 2013081500, , BEST, 0, 138N, 230W, 30, 1008, TD

[ninel conde]

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL932013 08/15/13 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
SHEAR (KT) 11 9 6 3 2 4 12 14 13 14 13 8 4

Shear values low longterm...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... t_VSHD.gif

atlantic shear showing a bit below normal.

[TheStormExpert]

I know I said this yesterday but I hope it doesn't pull another Dorian and struggle a good portion of it's life while teasing us here and there of maybe regenerating. That storm was a pain!

Knowing that it's now Mid-August I would assume we could expect it to be able to hold together even with some of the unfavorable conditions expected unlike Dorian since that was Mid to Late July.

[BigB0882]

Next step is getting a name! It seems odd to see a Tropical Depression. So often they go straight to TS these days.

[TheStormExpert]

Next step is getting a name! It seems odd to see a Tropical Depression. So often they go straight to TS these days.

I know about every storm this season so far has went straight to Tropical Storm status.

[Cainer]

93L was only first mentioned in the 5-day TWO yesterday at 2:00 PM and was given a 20% chance of developing. Just goes to show how quickly things can change in the tropics, and how difficult it can be to forecast development even with all the tools available to the professionals over at the NHC.

[stormhunter7]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
1100 PM AST WED AUG 14 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EAST ATLANTIC...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 23.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[stormhunter7]

btw... it's Capt. Stewart again with berg working the shift! haha
"FORECASTER BERG/STEWART"

[gatorcane]

[Blown Away]

Another system forecast to weaken longterm and TD5 is located in the heart of the MDR and near primetime of the season...

[TheStormExpert]

Another system forecast to weaken longterm and TD5 is located in the heart of the MDR and near primetime of the season...

This is really starting to remind me of 2009 and that was a strong El Nino year!

[JonathanBelles]

Update on both TD 5 and 92L: http://jonathanbelles.com/2013/08/14/td ... erin-form/

[Blinhart]

Katrina/Andrew/Lili all come to mind with this kind of set up.

[cycloneye]

This may get close or reach the Hebert Box at 20N-60W so let's wait and see what happens after it reaches that area in terms of track.

[Gustywind]

This may get close or reach the Hebert Box at 20N-60W so let's wait and see what happens after it reaches that area.

You might be right on that Cycloneye. We should ,us, in the EC keep an eye on TD5. After 3days NHC track seems indicate a west bound beginning near the 40W.

ONCE WEAKENING BEGINS IN 4 TO 5 DAYS...LOWER-LEVEL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER AND SHOULD STEER THE
SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK.
So, we have plenty of time to watch the situation. Wait and see.

[CaneCurious]

Katrina/Andrew/Lili all come to mind with this kind of set up.

That's not something that I want to hear