ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

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BigB0882
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#221 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Aug 14, 2013 9:36 pm

I think I may be just far enough to the West to not have to worry about rain. Unless the models shift this thing further West, we will be on the dry side it looks like. I wouldn't mind a nice rainy weekend to lounge at the house BUT we have had some really decent rain the last 3 days so I think flooding would be a big problem with a tropical system.
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Tyler Penland
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#222 Postby Tyler Penland » Wed Aug 14, 2013 9:42 pm

deltadog03 wrote:I would say maybe 4-6" total rain from today through Sunday around here possible. I would say 2-4" for yall


Thanks. Pretty much what I was thinking.
Also, if a mod could delete my bonus posts I'd appreciate it. My phone is being ridiculous.
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#223 Postby Rgv20 » Wed Aug 14, 2013 9:42 pm

0zNAM for entertainment purposes only....Well developed TC heading North by 72hrs.

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#224 Postby N2tropicAL » Wed Aug 14, 2013 9:48 pm

right at a 2 ft rainfall surplus for 2013 in my backyard rain gauge in anniston AL... will be watching the models with interest in regards to flooding possibilities.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#225 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 14, 2013 9:50 pm

69hr NAM loop

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php


84hr NAM heading towards upper Texas coast or SW LA....
Last edited by ROCK on Wed Aug 14, 2013 9:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#226 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Aug 14, 2013 9:52 pm

0z NAM ends up stalling a TS south of the TX/LA border in 84 hours.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_27.png
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Nikki
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#227 Postby Nikki » Wed Aug 14, 2013 9:53 pm




This link doesn't work for me... :cry:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#228 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 14, 2013 9:54 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:0z NAM ends up stalling a TS south of the TX/LA border in 84 hours.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_27.png



not stalling moving wnw towards upper texas coast on last frame...

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php? ... mageSize=M
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#229 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Aug 14, 2013 9:56 pm

ROCK wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:0z NAM ends up stalling a TS south of the TX/LA border in 84 hours.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_27.png



not stalling moving wnw towards upper texas coast on last frame...

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php


Yeah Rock it's crawling WNW at the end there.


Nikki wrote:



This link doesn't work for me... :cry:



Try this one: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#230 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 14, 2013 9:59 pm

yeah its crawling for sure...thats why it misses the trof completely..allowing it to pull out,,,ridge builds back in...simliar to the CMC sort of....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#231 Postby Nikki » Wed Aug 14, 2013 9:59 pm

That one worked, thank you South Texas Storms!!!! :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#232 Postby Blinhart » Wed Aug 14, 2013 10:19 pm

So the Sabine Pass idea I threw out a few hours ago is not as far fetch as some had thought???
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#233 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Aug 14, 2013 10:29 pm

I have to say the NAM commonly spits out plausible forecast tracks for TC's but has it ever been right ? :lol: . Could be good news for Texas to fill up those reservoirs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#234 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 14, 2013 10:36 pm

0Z GFS rolling out 33hrs from my site.....

low is crossing Yucatan and into the BOC....850mb vort is stretch out big time....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_12.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_12.png

48hrs in the BOC....I guess,, :lol:


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_17.png


63hrs in the BOC with one lonely isobar

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_22.png
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#235 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 14, 2013 10:57 pm

I think the GFS is following its ensembles from 18Z... :D

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_31.png

its finally moving NW.....eerliy similar to the 0Z NAM...


117hr finally send it into Brownsville....whats left of it anyway....thats a pretty big shift

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#236 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Aug 14, 2013 11:12 pm

GFS has really backed away from the development table. Quite a change from 24 hrs ago...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#237 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Aug 14, 2013 11:13 pm

IMHO, flacid, won't be much. Look east for bad boys, TD5, and the one after that, currently over Africa. GN!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#238 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Wed Aug 14, 2013 11:17 pm

Yep. Don't think its shown anything other than a north gulf landfall. I'm not sure on which direction it might take but I am feeling more certain the gfs and euro have the intensity correct, or lack thereof. I remember when they were calling for dissipation for Chantal and Dorian and everyone was saying no way not going to happen. For run after run now they are showing nothing for this system as well and until proven otherwise I must agree.
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#239 Postby bamajammer4eva » Wed Aug 14, 2013 11:56 pm

00Z Canadian

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#240 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Thu Aug 15, 2013 12:00 am

Windshield wiper effects still going at high speed. This is becoming almost comedic. That is two huge swings by gfs and cmc.
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