ATL: ERIN - Models

[OURAGAN]

I hope this GFS track Will not verify

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[hadassah1024]

So could be Erin before 92L gets to be

[jeff]

Global models and hurricane forecasting models yet again not overly impressed with this system. While it looks good now...there may be struggles that lie ahead.

[gatorcane]

Yes but what we will want to watch for with this invest is if it does end up struggling, it has a chance to go quite far west especially when I look at the 500MB 18Z GFS out through 240 hours where the overall pattern across the subtropical Atlantic and North America is very zonal.

It could find better conditions much further downstream. Several of the 18Z GFS ensembles are bring this quite far west also.

Plenty of time to model watch on this one

[ninel conde]

Global models and hurricane forecasting models yet again not overly impressed with this system. While it looks good now...there may be struggles that lie ahead.

GFS fades it away as it heads west. sst's are fine and its not going to fly at 30 mph like dorian. do the models take into consideration conditions are more stable than normal?

[blp]

[Gustywind]

That's close to the Leewards islands and the Northern Leewards too. Let's hope that GFS track solution will not be like what my untrained eyes are seeing. Let's wait and see for the next runs...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Might not have to much to worry about on the other hand. Obviously nothing has been blowing up this year. And looking at model runs for this and 92 nothing is changing.

[BigB0882]

Might not have to much to worry about on the other hand. Obviously nothing has been blowing up this year. And looking at model runs for this and 92 nothing is changing.

Very true but this is so far out that it is many days away from first possible landfall and even further from a possible US hit. Conditions could be completely different by that time. The storm staying weak could mean a more Western track so I am keeping an eye on it.

[Hurricane Alexis]

That's close to the Leewards islands and the Northern Leewards too. Let's hope that GFS track solution will not be like what my untrained eyes are seeing. Let's wait and see for the next runs...

It will probably be weak by then but conditions could always change like BigB0882 said.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Blown Away]

At this pace I have a funny feeling this will be an agonizing system to watch down the road...It's dead, it's not dead, oops convection building, bones on standby, etc...Then maybe a nice cane pops out for us to track...

[Gustywind]

585
WHXX04 KWBC 151142
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE 05L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 15

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 14.3 24.9 290./14.0
6 14.6 26.0 282./11.4
12 14.9 27.4 282./14.0
18 15.1 29.0 278./15.6
24 15.2 30.6 273./15.5
30 15.3 32.1 274./14.4
36 15.6 33.4 284./12.7
42 16.0 34.6 290./12.2
48 16.5 35.6 296./11.2
54 17.1 36.6 300./10.5
60 17.7 37.4 305./10.2
66 18.5 38.3 313./12.0
72 19.1 39.4 302./11.5
78 19.6 40.3 296./10.4
84 20.2 41.5 296./11.9
90 20.7 42.7 295./12.8
96 21.6 43.8 309./13.2
102 22.3 44.6 310./10.8
108 23.4 45.5 319./13.5
114 24.6 46.6 318./15.3
120 25.8 47.2 332./13.1
126 26.3 48.0 307./ 8.8

[cycloneye]

12z plots.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1232 UTC THU AUG 15 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN (AL052013) 20130815 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130815 1200 130816 0000 130816 1200 130817 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.4N 25.7W 15.5N 28.3W 16.4N 31.1W 17.2N 33.6W
BAMD 14.4N 25.7W 15.3N 27.9W 16.5N 30.4W 17.9N 32.8W
BAMM 14.4N 25.7W 15.3N 28.2W 16.3N 30.7W 17.4N 33.1W
LBAR 14.4N 25.7W 15.5N 28.2W 16.8N 30.8W 18.4N 33.5W
SHIP 35KTS 43KTS 51KTS 56KTS
DSHP 35KTS 43KTS 51KTS 56KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130817 1200 130818 1200 130819 1200 130820 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.8N 35.7W 18.3N 39.5W 18.7N 43.6W 20.0N 48.0W
BAMD 19.4N 35.0W 22.1N 38.7W 24.8N 41.7W 27.2N 42.1W
BAMM 18.3N 35.3W 19.8N 39.3W 21.4N 43.5W 23.8N 47.4W
LBAR 19.8N 35.7W 22.5N 38.8W 25.2N 41.0W 27.6N 41.3W
SHIP 57KTS 56KTS 55KTS 58KTS
DSHP 57KTS 56KTS 55KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 25.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 13.8N LONM12 = 23.0W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 13.0N LONM24 = 20.7W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 30NM

[Stormcenter]

Yawn!!!!!!!!!!

[Blown Away]

12z

[gatorcane]

Based on the last advisory for Erin, the NHC is going with the GFS and it's ensembles for track over the UKMET and ECMWF as they expect Erin to weaken and get steered by low-level flow. Snippet from discussion:

THE FIM...GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
HWRF ALL SHOW A WESTWARD TRACK...CONSISTENT WITH A SHALLOWER SYSTEM
BEING STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST AT DAYS 3
THROUGH 5 CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THIS SOUTHERN CAMP OF MODELS AND IS
LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1440.shtml

GFS ensembles below:

[BigA]

To me, this looks like the type of system that can go west if it stays weak, though there are no guarantees that there will be more favorable conditions farther west.

Looking at the 500 mb geopotential maps from the GFS ensemble mean, it looks like there is a little weakness at about 55-60 West in 5 days that the storm could find, but after that some pretty stout 500 mb ridging builds in over the western Atlantic

5 day GFS ensemble mean 500 mb geopotential



7 day GFS ensemble mean 500 mb geopotential



Of course, if this thing is a remnant wave that doesn't redevelop, this is all purely academic, but I see a scenario where this could continue westward.

[HouTXmetro]

I agree, weak means the likelihood of being steered further west in the low level flow rises. Makes it more of a threat down the road.

[Fego]

12UTC GFS run sends Erin to North Atlantic's open waters.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

[Blown Away]

12z