ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

[ROCK]

Windshield wiper effects still going at high speed. This is becoming almost comedic. That is two huge swings by gfs and cmc.

Agree...it's almost worthless to look at them now...for me anyway

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 151230
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1230 UTC THU AUG 15 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922013) 20130815 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130815 1200 130816 0000 130816 1200 130817 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.8N 87.6W 19.7N 89.7W 20.2N 91.3W 20.5N 92.7W
BAMD 18.8N 87.6W 19.3N 89.2W 19.5N 90.6W 19.7N 92.2W
BAMM 18.8N 87.6W 19.5N 89.3W 19.8N 90.8W 20.1N 92.4W
LBAR 18.8N 87.6W 19.8N 89.4W 20.9N 91.3W 22.1N 93.2W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 30KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 31KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130817 1200 130818 1200 130819 1200 130820 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.6N 94.0W 20.6N 96.7W 20.2N 99.6W 19.8N 102.5W
BAMD 19.9N 93.7W 20.3N 96.5W 20.6N 98.8W 20.9N 101.0W
BAMM 20.2N 93.8W 20.4N 96.6W 20.2N 99.2W 20.0N 101.9W
LBAR 23.5N 94.5W 27.7N 95.3W 32.6N 93.8W 36.3N 89.2W
SHIP 44KTS 52KTS 55KTS 55KTS
DSHP 45KTS 53KTS 33KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.8N LONCUR = 87.6W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 17.8N LONM12 = 85.9W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 17.1N LONM24 = 83.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HouTXmetro]

Nothing to see here? Have all the models written the area off?

[ROCK]

I have been posting so much I forgot I needed to work for a living...

[CrazyC83]

Once it gets into the BOC, it looks like its track could be quite erratic. The trough looks to leave this behind, and that means steering currents collapse?

[Rgv20]

Once it gets into the BOC, it looks like its track could be quite erratic. The trough looks to leave this behind, and that means steering currents collapse?

Correct, if it manages to hold together and head to the BOC a second landfall could come in as late as Tuesday. It could easily just dissipate as the trough keeps robbing it moisture....We shall see what happens.

[Dean4Storms]

12z GFS brings a sheared TS into P'Cola with 50kt winds at 900mb on Sunday.

[Stormcenter]

I think it showed the same thing on Monday.

12z GFS brings a sheared TS into P'Cola with 50kt winds at 900mb on Sunday.

[Dean4Storms]

NAVGEM 12z still AL/MS area with TS...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

[ROCK]

I think it showed the same thing on Monday.

12z GFS brings a sheared TS into P'Cola with 50kt winds at 900mb on Sunday.

[Dean4Storms]

I think it showed the same thing on Monday.

12z GFS brings a sheared TS into P'Cola with 50kt winds at 900mb on Sunday.

I think you're right. Back to where it once belonged.

[Dean4Storms]

12z GGEM toward the FL Panhandle with a TS.


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

[ROCK]

yep they are getting comical as they all seem to hedge their bets and leave something behind in the BOC. Honestly I dont think what the CMC forms is 92L but one of her offspring...


EURO out in a few....that will clear things up...ha

[gatorcane]

12z GGEM toward the FL Panhandle with a TS.


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

You will also notice from this loop it also develops Pouch 20L and has it just north of the Leewards in 126 hours.

That pouch is being discussed here:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115379

[ROCK]

12Z NAM is all over the place also....sends something from the top portion of this wave to MS/AL....leaves something in the BOC that starts to head towards TX at 84hr...crazy NAM!!

[Dean4Storms]

Could have a split in this. The northern part maybe even more sub-tropical and highly sheared.

[Steve]

For the record, late this past Sunday night.

PS the caveat could be split energy with some riding up the front and the rest moving west across the yucatan...

This was a point to a post regarding some of the differences in the model camps and possibly why.

Steve

[ROCK]

For the record, late this past Sunday night.

PS the caveat could be split energy with some riding up the front and the rest moving west across the yucatan...

This was a point to a post regarding some of the differences in the model camps and possibly why.

Steve

nice call Steve.....

[Steve]

Thanks Rock. That was from a discussion us night owls were having after you posted the NAVGEM's solution of having energy sit down in the bottom lip (?) of the BOC. At the time, I had that as 3rd most likely possibility (favoring North Mex/South Tex and then FL Panhandle). But the way a piece of the energy could certainly end up in the extreme Southern Gulf was if it was a wave moving through after decoupling (whether or not it evolved on that side of the Yucatan or if it just piled up and sort of stalled or slowed down there).

As an aside, this year on Bob Breck's Weathering the Storm, they interviewed a typical weather geek (could have been any of us, but it wasn't me) whose page was actually on Storm2k during the interview. The reporter asked a question about all the information on the web - essentially is there too much, is it too confusing, do enthusiasts know what they're talking about, etc. He said that you just have to learn to filter who and what out there is of value. The stuff I usually filter out is the state wars. I even go a step further (regardless if it undermines my credibility) by often arguing against anything hitting here in SELA unelss it's obvious (e.g. Gustav 08, Cindy & Katrina 05, Isaac 12, Bill 03, Matthew 04, etc.). The stuff that's posted in good fun (like you usually do with a smile face) is all good. It's the posts where people take their "turf" too seriously and argue for every wobble, model change, etc. that I filter out. Hey, at least it's something learned over the years.
Steve

[Steve]

>>yep they are getting comical as they all seem to hedge their bets and leave something behind in the BOC. Honestly I dont think what the CMC forms is 92L but one of her offspring...

You are the model king. What was the one Monday or Tuesday (CMC???) that sat a piece of energy down the BOC and ejected up like 2 or 3 other "closed" isobar pieces?