WPAC: UNALA - Post-Tropical

[jaguarjace]

An area of low pressure centered about 475 miles south of the Big Island of
Hawaii is moving west at 15 to 20 mph. This system has shown some improvement
in organization over the last 6 to 12 hours. Further development, if any, will be slow
to occur, and this system has a low chance, near 20 percent, of becoming a
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

[Extratropical94]

12Z:

CP, 90, 2013081512, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1591W, 30, 1008, LO

2. An area of low pressure centered about 675 miles south of Kauai is moving west near 20 mph. This system continues to show signs of improved organization, with thunderstorms recently increasing near the center. Environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive for further development, and this system has a medium chance, near 40 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

[supercane4867]

An area of low pressure centered about 650 miles south of Kauai is moving west near 20 mph. This system continues to show signs of improved organization, and a tropical depression may be developing, as strong thunderstorms are increasing near the center. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for further development, and this system has a high chance, 80 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

About to become the first tropical cyclone forms in the CPAC since 2009

[CrazyC83]

What is the next CPAC name?

[Weatherguy173]

man did this thing rapidly get going!

[CrazyC83]

That looks like much more than a depression - I'd say a solid tropical storm.

[Weatherguy173]

What is the next CPAC name?

I think Pewa

[Yellow Evan]

What is the next CPAC name?

Pewa

[Yellow Evan]

1. An area of low pressure centered about 650 miles south of Kauai is moving west near 20 mph. This system continues to show signs of improved organization as thunderstorms increased in coverage overnight, and a tropical depression may be developing. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for further development, and this system has a high chance, 80 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

[Kingarabian]

Isn't this the system that the GFS bombs into a strong Hurricane once it reaches the WPAC?

[Yellow Evan]

Isn't this the system that the GFS bombs into a strong Hurricane once it reaches the WPAC?

Hold on, let me check.

Edit: Yes, it shows a couple storng TS, but not strong cance's on the last run near the dateline.

Pewa and Unala 276 hours out.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert Issued



WTPN21 PHNC 151430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.4N 158.4W TO 13.8N 167.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
151400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N
159.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 159.1W,
APPROXIMATELY 500NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HILO, HAWAII. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
LLCC. A 151226Z NOAA-19 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE NORTH
QUADRANT WITH SHALLOW, BROAD BANDING ELSEWHERE. RECENT SCATTEROMETER
DATA INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED WITHIN AN AREA OF SHARP
TROUGHING WITH NO INDICATION OF A SURFACE REFLECTION; HOWEVER,
STRONG MID-LEVEL TURNING IS EVIDENT WITH FORMATIVE BANDING. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
161430Z.//
NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

Any re-number?

[Hurricane_Luis]

Any re-number?

Not yet, Sure there will be one soon though.

[cycloneye]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH OF KAUAI
IS MOVING WEST NEAR 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AS THUNDERSTORMS INCREASED IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE DEVELOPING.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Yellow Evan]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH OF KAUAI
IS MOVING WEST NEAR 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AS THUNDERSTORMS INCREASED IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE DEVELOPING.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

That's 90'C.

[cycloneye]

Moved the posts from 91C to this one.

[Hurricane_Luis]

[jaguarjace]

Saved loop.

[Yellow Evan]

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 675 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF KAUAI IS MOVING WEST NEAR 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF
SLOWLY IMPROVED ORGANIZATION IN THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MAY BE DEVELOPING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.