Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[cycloneye]

Here is the Global Hazard update for the next 2 weeks and shows possible TC development on week 1 in BOC and on week 2 in MDR.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /ghazards/

[SFLcane]

As we approach the peak season If you live in South Florida you might wanna read this post from CBS4 Craig Setzer..

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=517568304980062&set=a.146336542103242.33903.146331668770396

[Ntxw]

MJO remains very weak. I know the GFS has been trying to move it along but this to me looks bogus. It loops it back closer to P8 from P1 which cannot happen. Probably confusing it with a Kelvin wave. The euro does hint at maybe a weak MJO signal going into the IO but we've seen both these models try this before and hasn't worked out. Activity right now can be credited to the latest Kelvin wave moving in from the EPAC and crossing the Atlantic basin. Once this passes shortly there's no other good signal to point towards more activity at this time.

[MiamiensisWx]

I find it odd that NO ONE in the forecasting of numbers community can foresee the instability issues and yet it has been there for the past several seasons. It also rarely seems to be addressed. I also find it amusing that one particular person, who we all know, was practically SCREAMING about his "nightmare" back in March based on a change in the 400mb temps etc. Just wondering how all of this can be accounted for? Huge signs go missed. Others seem to make up signs that aren't there. What gives?

Very good question. Perhaps models are not taking into account that the Indian Ocean has become warmer, perhaps due to feedback via climate change. This +IOD pattern means less instability and possibly more upper lows (=weaker subtropical high) in the Atlantic. Interestingly, one of the expected impacts of climate change would be fewer storms in the Atlantic due to more upper-level lows and/or stable air, and we have seen both since 2005--and especially since 2008. You can argue about anthropogenic and natural factors, but the general idea--that the climate is warmer now than it was for some period of Earth's history--seems reasonable. Like any other climate change in the past, this one would have sensible impacts on weather and tropical cyclones. Perhaps the Atlantic is more susceptible than are other basins, thus accounting for the fact that the Pacific is still active.

[ConvergenceZone]

Not quite ready to lower numbers yet for the season. Only if 92L and 93L don't develop, THEN time to lower the numbers.......

[ninel conde]

MJO remains very weak. I know the GFS has been trying to move it along but this to me looks bogus. It loops it back closer to P8 from P1 which cannot happen. Probably confusing it with a Kelvin wave. The euro does hint at maybe a weak MJO signal going into the IO but we've seen both these models try this before and hasn't worked out. Activity right now can be credited to the latest Kelvin wave moving in from the EPAC and crossing the Atlantic basin. Once this passes shortly there's no other good signal to point towards more activity at this time.

93L'S fate will tell alot about the remainder of the season

[beoumont]

Well, August 15th is tomorrow; the start of the real hurricane season: August 15-October 20. Preseason finally over.

Batten down the hatches.
Here come da judge.
Fire up the doobbie.
Pop open that cold one.
Take down your hair.
The Postman Always Rings Twice.

[hurricanehunter69]

MJO remains very weak. I know the GFS has been trying to move it along but this to me looks bogus. It loops it back closer to P8 from P1 which cannot happen. Probably confusing it with a Kelvin wave. The euro does hint at maybe a weak MJO signal going into the IO but we've seen both these models try this before and hasn't worked out. Activity right now can be credited to the latest Kelvin wave moving in from the EPAC and crossing the Atlantic basin. Once this passes shortly there's no other good signal to point towards more activity at this time.

93L'S fate will tell alot about the remainder of the season

Remember, TD10 dissipated in the MDR and then eventually became Katrina. Oh, and FWIW. We will only be 2 named storms behind 2005's pace After the very likelyhood of Erin and Fernand being put in the books tomorrow.....I get where you're comin from though. The question is what will the strength of the storms be this year? Not even close to 2005 at this point, but I'm betting on several majors from here on out nonetheless.

[gatorcane]

Aug 15th and 384 hour runs of the GFS show some activity as would be expected as we move into late August and early September but nothing of real consequence and several recurving systems.

But still today marks the climatological start of the Cape Verde season which generally lasts for 4 weeks, so lots of time left plus we really need to watch the potential for homegrown systems that form closer to the U.S. and islands that form from waves that move from Africa but don't develop enough to recurve.

In other words so far so good, but the ramp up is just beginning...

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The Atlantic has just begun its ramp-up in activity. Global models are in decent agreement that we should see a more bonified MJO signal evolve over the western hemisphere over the next two weeks, progressing through octants 8, 1, and eventually 2. The MJO is associated with rising air which promotes the development of thunderstorm activity. In addition, we should continue to see a series of kelvin waves progress across the basin through the beginning of September; in case you were wondering the potency of these features, Erin was spawned nearly wholeheartedly because of one. If you've been following wind shear maps, you will notice there's a lot less wind shear now than there was a week ago -- this is because the Atlantic is undergoing a pattern change in which upper-level ridging is becoming the dominant feature. Upper-level ridging is characterized by anticyclonic flow aloft which is characterized with favorable shear for cyclones. There's not much on the global models yet...what's new?...but the CFS has been consistent with a barrage of tropical cyclones soon.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Inc ... 6_2013.pdf

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE
ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 16 - AUGUST 29, 2013

We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by above-average amounts
(greater than 130 percent) of activity relative to climatology.

(as of 16 August 2013)

...

We believe that the next two weeks will be characterized by activity at above average levels (greater than 130 percent of climatology). The average ACE accrued
during the period from 1950-2010 from August 16-August 29 was 15 units, and
consequently, our forecast for the next two weeks is for greater than 18 ACE units to be
generated.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Only thing is they are hedging that forecast on the models being right and developing another storm off Africa in 5-7 days. Would have thought they would have played it more save and said things should be average. Not betting on something developing a week out because the gfs says so.

[SFLcane]

Here we go! atleast lets hope..

[TheStormExpert]

As of right now with the way Erin is showing signs of trending downward overall and will most likely be the 3rd storm to struggle and fall apart over tropical waters, I'd take a season like last year over a season like this year in a heartbeat! Rather watch oddly strong systems in the Subtropical Atlantic than pathetic barely surviving storms in the Tropical Atlantic any day! As long as they cause little to no harm. Better hope things are starting to ramp up like are stating above.

[Frank2]

We are now up to the E system, but thankfully not one has been a hurricane - not sure what the "record" would be for getting this far down the list without a hurricane...

[ninel conde]

still have a way to go to set the record. joe bastardi has not given up.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 6m

The God of Dry air awaits Erin, but look out, http://weatherbell.com sees classic US threat pattern evolving in coming weeks. More than ave

im still waiting for him to release his new forecast to the public so it can be posted in the experts thread.

[tolakram]

In JB's premium content he shows how he thinks things start up in about a week.

Always next week.

So it seems to me one can look at seasonal activity in two ways now.

1. Storms are still developing even though conditions would normally not allow it. This is a precursor to a very active season.

-or-

2. Anything that develops stays week due to persistent negative conditions and I will believe they'll change when I see it.

[Extratropical94]

We are now up to the E system, but thankfully not one has been a hurricane - not sure what the "record" would be for getting this far down the list without a hurricane...

In 2011 Irene was the first cane, so it's at least 8 storms.
I don't know if there has been a season before that with 9 or more storms and no hurricane though.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think that's the question everyone has. Weak storms will always come and go, but the question is, when will these storms start developing and actually holding together??
I'm waiting for the "wait until sometime in September" posts to start coming in...

[ninel conde]

In JB's premium content he shows how he thinks things start up in about a week.

Always next week.

So it seems to me one can look at seasonal activity in two ways now.

1. Storms are still developing even though conditions would normally not allow it. This is a precursor to a very active season.

-or-

2. Anything that develops stays week due to persistent negative conditions and I will believe they'll change when I see it.

right now ill believe it when i see it. so, i select num 2, lol. to be fair to JB several mets are saying things will get better.