ATL: ERIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hurricaneCW]

With the conditions in the Atlantic still quite unfavorable and systems like Dorian and Erin becoming at best mid level tropical storms before getting destroyed, when will we actually see a decent storm, or even just a hurricane for that matter. Even 92L managed to fizzle out or won't be much anymore when yesterday some believed it could have been a hurricane.

If this were an El Nino and all agencies were forecasting a quiet season then this would all make sense, but I have to concur that there's something not quite right in the Atlantic right now. Going forward, there's no model out there developing any significant systems for the rest of this month, which is definitely a red flag.

I suppose a hyperactive September and October could easily make up for it, but it might get to the point where we're going to need a hyperactive Sept/Oct to verify the numerous/most above normal season forecasts.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I never see much accuracy in shear values that far out. Have to wait and see.

[adam0983]

Hopefully no storms at all this year. No one needs any damage or destruction.

[HURRICANELONNY]

In fact. Looking at sat vis. loop. I think it will make it to hurricane strength before some weakening happens. But my opinion. Not back to a wave. Not official.

[HurricaneDREW92]

I'd agree with that Weather Channel meteorologist. Very good chance Erin will weaken back to a wave in 5 days and very unlikely to be any threat to the East U.S. Coast. Just looked at the high-res 12Z Euro and it weakens Erin back to a wave in 3-4 days, as does the GFS and Canadian. Though wind shear isn't too much of an issue presently, the GFS indicates 35-45 kts of shear in a couple of days and persistent shear beyond then. Same with Canadian & Euro. You can see the interaction of Erin and the shear on Levi's page:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

Just for fun, I went over to the Coastal Services Center and set a location where Erin currently is with a circle of radius 75 miles. Plotted all storms that have come within 75 miles of Erin's current location. I see the big 1915 Galveston hurricane in there, a big 1947 Miami hurricane in there, the 1928 Lake Okeechobee hurricane in there and 3-4 East Coast hurricanes. Over 90% missed the Caribbean and the U.S., though. And those that did hit the U.S. probably didn't have the same flow pattern that exists out there today.

http://csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#

Still wxman, not sure if they should say it so confidently so far out. The met didn't even mention there being a chance it survives TMK

[floridasun78]

was my post delete? about wx

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Storm Erin

[ninel conde]

Carl Parker had said that Tropical Storm Erin would fall apart in 5 days. Just an opinion not a forecast.

JB says the of dry air will get it.

[northtxboy]

Tropical Storm Erin

That just looks awesome

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 05, 2013081600, , BEST, 0, 152N, 285W, 35, 1007, TS

[Hurricane Alexis]

It'll probably begin to fall apart when it detaches itself from the ITCZ and ingests dry air into it's center.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanekid416]

The same thing will happen to every wave unless the high pressure moves north to make the air less stable out in the central atlantic

[hurricanes1234]

The following is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution, including Storm2k.org. For official information, please see the NWS products.

The cloud tops are warming considerably. Is this from the dry air the NHC was speaking about in the previous advisories?

[ninel conde]

The following is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution, including Storm2k.org. For official information, please see the NWS products.

The cloud tops are warming considerably. Is this from the dry air the NHC was speaking about in the previous advisories?

just saw cantore on TWC. massive amount of dry air is dominating the atlantic. very likely the 3rd one in a row to die over deep tropical waters.

[Hurricane Alexis]

The same thing will happen to every wave unless the high pressure moves north to make the air less stable out in the central atlantic

Yep. This year doesn't seem favorable out in that area. But, once the waves and storms get to 55 west and beyond they have more instability to work with so homebrews might be an issue.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Gustywind]

Latest SSD numbers.


15/2345 UTC 15.3N 27.9W T1.5/2.0 ERIN
15/1745 UTC 14.9N 26.7W T2.0/2.0 ERIN
15/1145 UTC 14.5N 25.8W T2.0/2.0 ERIN
15/0545 UTC 14.2N 24.6W T1.5/1.5 05L

[Gustywind]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
1100 PM AST THU AUG 15 2013

...ERIN HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 29.1W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

[hurricanes1234]

The following is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution, including Storm2k.org. For official information, please see the NWS products.

Who knows, the dry air and wind shear has destroyed two storms thus far unexpectedly, Chantal and Dorian, so I won't be shocked to see that Erin may already be going downhill. However, even if it gets severely affected before it is forecast, I think it will at least make it to 45 mph. Reminds me of Florence from last year, it developed as soon as it exited Africa, but didn't make it very far (60 mph).

[ninel conde]

looks like the dry air got it sooner than expected.

[Gustywind]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
500 AM AST FRI AUG 16 2013

...ERIN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 30.5W
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES