Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Here are the GFS ensembles that are on a mainly west track so let's continue to watch what happens with TS Five in the next few days.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A rainy pattern will start on Friday with a series of troughs and Tropical Waves moving thru the area.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS OVR PR WILL MOVE WWD INTO HISPANIOLA FRI.
SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA OVR THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER TUTT WILL ESTABLISH NORTH OF PR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODIS AQUA AOD PRODUCT FROM WED SHOWED SAHARAN DUST
OVR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THIS SHOULD BE OVR PR TODAY. TUTT
AXIS OVR PR TODAY WITH ISOLD LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW PR
UNDER A NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW.

FIRST FEATURE OF INTEREST IS TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATION ALONG 56W.
THIS FEATURE WILL REACH THE LEEWARDS AFTER 00Z TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST
PR AND USVI AFTER 06Z. MODELS SHOW A SHARP INCREASE IN PW AFTER
06Z TONIGHT WITH VALUES INCREASING MORE THAN HALF INCH IN LESS
THAN 6 HRS WITH PRETTY DECENT SFC CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OVR NORTHEAST PR. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
SQUALLS/THUNDERSTORMS FRI WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
MAINLY NORTHEAST PR WHERE SIG OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY.

MID-LEVELS DRY OUT SAT AND SUN UNDER BUILDING SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE
BUT EXPECT TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVR NORTHWEST PR UNDER A
SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW.

SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W EXPECTED TO
REACH THE AREA BY TUE MORNING. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A VERY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH
ANOTHER TUTT FCST TO ESTABLISH NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WAVE IS LIKELY TO BRING A TWO-DAY PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH SIG RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON TUE.

TD FIVE IS VERY FAR AWAY MORE THAN 2000 MILES FROM THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN AND IS FCST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL WAVE BEYOND DAY 5
TUE ACCORDING TO NHC/WPC OFFICIAL MEDIUM RANGE FCST. EVEN IF IT
WERE TO IMPACT THE AREA IT WOULD NOT BE UNTIL NEXT FRI AUG 23.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES DURNG THE NEXT 24 HRS. SHRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW
SECTIONS OF PR BTWN 15/18Z-21Z. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING
SHRA/TSRA IN AND AROUND TNCM/TKPK AFTER 16/00Z. ATTM...VCTS WERE
INCLUDED IN TNCM AND TKPK AFTER 15/23Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE EAST UP TO 2 KT...THEN AFT 15/13Z AT AROUND 10
TO 20KTS...WITH GUSTS AT AROUND 20 TO 25KTS AT TJSJ/TJBQ/TIST/TISX.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20 KT. POSSIBLE SQUALLS FRI
ASSOCIATED WITH TUTT INDUCED SFC TROUGH. TSTMS WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARD OVR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 82 89 81 / 10 70 80 50
STT 90 82 90 82 / 10 70 70 30

[Gustywind]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
500 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013

...DEPRESSION APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT PASSES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 25.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SW OF BRAVA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Gustywind]

TD 5 has increased and now we have TS Erin...


000
WTNT35 KNHC 151138
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
800 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ERIN WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 25.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF BRAVA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[msbee]

706
WTNT35 KNHC 151138
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
800 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ERIN WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 25.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF BRAVA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OF MAIO...SANTIAGO...FOGO...AND
BRAVA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS
STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ERIN.

AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.6 WEST. ERIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERIN WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY
IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN ON THE ISLANDS.

RAINFALL...ERIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Gustywind]

Good job Msbee

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST THU AUG 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH
THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY. VERY WET WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE FOR NEXT
WEEK. TROPICAL STORM ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH NO
THREAT TO LAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DURING THE DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. LITTLE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AFFECTED SAINT CROIX...AND BEGAN TO
AFFECTED THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE
TROUGH...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY FRIDAY.
THEREFORE...AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS FEATURE.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOONS BOTH DAYS. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A VERY ACTIVE
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WAVE
WILL BE ACCOMPANY BY A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. THEREFORE...A VERY WET WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST STARTING
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM ERIN DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
PER LATEST NHC FORECAST...ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
NORTHWEST NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...STAYING WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THIS AFT SW PR PROB NOT REDUCE CONDS AT
TJMZ/TJPS. SCT SHRA/TSRA INCR TONITE MAINLY TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK...
SOME WI MVFR CIGS. WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA TO CAUSE PDS OF MVFR MOST
TAFS FRI AFT. WINDS BLO FL150 ENE 16-27 KT BCMG E ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 88 / 20 80 50 40
STT 82 90 82 90 / 40 60 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A Trough interacting with a Tropical Wave will bring scattered showers to the PR area today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
434 AM AST FRI AUG 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS OVER HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD TO
BUILDING SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE FROM THE EAST. ANOTHER TUTT WILL
ESTABLISH NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SFC TROF WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED NEXT MON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SFC TROUGH WITH AXIS OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE EAST OF TROF AXIS
IS SEEN ON BLENDED TPW AND CIRA LPW PRODUCTS AND EXTENDS UP TO
ABOUT 600 MB PER LATEST GOES SOUNDER DATA. EXPECT MAINLY SHALLOW
CONVECTION TO BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS LATER THIS MORNING AS CYCLONIC
VORTICITY AND OROGRAPHICS ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN THIRD OF PR. BEST CHANCE FOR HIGHEST RAINFALL RATES IS
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS AROUND 21Z.

WX IMPROVES OVER THE WEEKEND UNDER SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WITH
SIGNIFICANT LESS SHOWER CVRG AND MAINLY CONFINED TO WRN PR.
A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 47W WILL REACH THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN MON AND INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH ANOTHER TUTT FCST TO
ESTABLISH NORTH OF THE AREA TO BRING UNSETTLED WX CONDITIONS. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE A SIG DRYING
COMMENCES WED NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS FCST TO WEAKEN INTO A
TROPICAL WAVE DY6 WED AND DISSIPATE ON DY7 THU ACCORDING TO
OFFICIAL NHC/WPC MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST AND NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
PLAYER IN OUR LOCAL WEATHER ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...VCSH TILL 16/12Z MAINLY NE TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TNCM/TKPK...
TJBQ/TJMZ. PASSING SHRA MAY LEAD TO TEMPO MVFR AND MTN TOP OBSCR
WITH LOW CIGS. AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER PR/USVI...SHRA/TSRA
WILL INCREASE...THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BTWN 16/15Z-21Z
MAINLY AT TJSJ/TIST/TISX...HOWEVER TEMPO GROUPS WERE INCLUDED AT
TJMZ/TJBQ. SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE FM THE E-NE BTW 5 AND 15KTS...
THEN AFT 16/12Z AT 10 TO 20KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...NMRS SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS SFC TROF
MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20
KNOTS BUT HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN TSTMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 81 89 81 / 80 50 30 30
STT 89 82 90 82 / 70 30 30 40

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 160831
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
500 AM AST FRI AUG 16 2013

...ERIN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 30.5W
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.5 WEST. ERIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[msbee]

News Release

Department of Communication (DCOMM), Ennia Bldg., Longwall Rd., Philipsburg, Sint Maarten W.I. Tel. +1 721 543-1162, 542-4119, Fax: 543-1169; Email: gis at sintmaarten.net or dcomm at sintmaartengov.org; Website: http://www.sintmaartengov.org

For Immediate Release: Thursday, August 15, 2013/N245

Fifth Storm of the Season TS Erin Poses No Threat to Country Sint Maarten

GREAT BAY, Sint Maarten (DCOMM) – The fifth storm of the Atlantic hurricane season formed on Thursday morning – Tropical Storm (TS) Erin - in the Atlantic Ocean several thousand miles from the Eastern Caribbean island chain.
The Department of Disaster Management (ODM) will monitor the progress of TS Erin which formed on the day of the start of the peak period of the hurricane season. The storm does not pose a threat to the country.
On Thursday the storm was tracking West North West at 14 miles per hour (mph). Maximum wind speeds at that time were 40 mph.

The Office of Disaster Management reiterates to the nation that they should have already completed storm/hurricane preparations for the 2013 season; for those who have yet to make preparations such as putting together a family plan on where you would ride out a storm in case your home is vulnerable to a storm/hurricane (wind, flooding, storm surge); to have a disaster supply kit containing items that you will need regardless of where you will ride out a storm/hurricane.

Remember, it only takes one hurricane to make the season a bad one.

The remaining storm names for the 2013 season are: Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Ingrid, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van and Wendy.

The hurricane season runs through November 30.

# # #

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
213 PM AST FRI AUG 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND WILL EXIT
THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY. A WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE BROUGHT SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WERE MOVING
QUICKLY...WHICH LIMITED THE RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER...THE
AXIS OF THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE LOCAL REGION TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
MAINLY ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND BETTER RAINFALL ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED. AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE
WEEKEND MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED AROUND 50
WEST LONGITUDE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
MONDAY. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
ITCZ WHICH WILL CREATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA. LATEST SJU-GFS PROGNOSIS SOUNDING ARE INDICATING PW VALUES
WILL INCREASE UP TO 2.25 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...UNDER A
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW BETWEEN 0-3KM LAYER. THESE FACTORS...WILL
COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...BETWEEN MONDAY AD WEDNESDAY NEXT
WEEK. KEEP INFORMED ON LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE HOW THIS
SITUATION EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
PR AND USVI TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 17/00Z...AS A TROPICAL WAVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. AFT 17/00Z...MOSTLY VFR
WITH PASSING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TIST AND TISX. EASTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE BTW 10 AND 20KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 89 81 89 / 50 30 30 30
STT 82 90 82 89 / 50 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Next Tropical Wave will bring plenty of rain to the islands and that wet period begins on Sunday as it interacts with a trough.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST SAT AUG 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER PR TODAY AND MOVE
INTO HISPANIOLA SUN AFTERNOON. TUTT OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL
RETROGRESS OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS AND ESTABLISH NORTH OF THE AREA TUE.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ATLC MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MUCH DRIER AND WARMER TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
STRONG SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WITH SIG LESS SHRA CVRG THAN YDAY.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CNTRL ATLC ALONG 54W WILL ENTER THE ERN
CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT AND WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ALSO SHOWING SIG TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH WAVE PASSAGE ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN. WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN
AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE WITHIN THE ITCZ. SINCE EMBEDDED
MOSTLY IN THE ITCZ NO TC DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BUT EXPECT WAVE
TO BRING SVRL DAYS OF ACTIVE WX SUN-TUE WITH TUE LOOKING LIKE THE
MOST ACTIVE DAY WHEN MODELS SHOW BEST INTERACTION WITH BEST 850 MB
VORTICITY AND DEEP TUTT TO THE NORTH.

WX BEGINS TO IMPROVE ON WED AS SAHARAN AIR LAYER ESTABLISHES OVR
THE AREA. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL THEN START LOOKING MORE LIKE SEP
AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE ATLC AND BECOMES THE
DOMINANT WX FEATURE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

NICE LOOKING WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEST AFRICAN MONSOON TROF EXITED
THE AFRICAN CONTINENT YESTERDAY. THIS WAVE ORIGINATED FROM A LARGE
MCS OVR WEST AFRICA AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF 10N. THIS
WAVE HAS SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE WAVE TROUGH AND
HAS DEEP MOISTURE IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE LOOKS LIKE A VERY GOOD
CANDIDATE TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE EVENTUALLY IN THE NEXT 5-10
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL DURG PRD. LOCALLY ISOLATED
PASSING -SHRA/SHRA MAINLY ACROSS TJSJ SURROUNDING WATERS. MTN TOP
OBSCR OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY MORNING OVR ERN CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF
PR DUE TO LOW SCUD CLDS AND PASSING SHRA. POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSRA
IN THE VCNTY OF TJMZ...BTWN 17/1730Z-23Z. SFC E WIND UP TO 10 KTS
TIL 17/13 THEN SFC WIND MAINLY FROM E AT 10-20 KTS BL0 2KFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS UP 20 KT. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE WITH INCLEMENT WX ALL
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN TSTMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 82 88 76 / 10 50 50 40
STT 89 82 89 81 / 30 50 50 50

[Gustywind]

Good morning. Next Tropical Wave will bring plenty of rain to the islands and that wet period begins on Sunday as it interacts with a trough.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST SAT AUG 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER PR TODAY AND MOVE
INTO HISPANIOLA SUN AFTERNOON. TUTT OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL
RETROGRESS OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS AND ESTABLISH NORTH OF THE AREA TUE.
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ATLC MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MUCH DRIER AND WARMER TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
STRONG SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WITH SIG LESS SHRA CVRG THAN YDAY.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CNTRL ATLC ALONG 54W WILL ENTER THE ERN
CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT AND WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ALSO SHOWING SIG TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH WAVE PASSAGE ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN. WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN
AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE WITHIN THE ITCZ. SINCE EMBEDDED
MOSTLY IN THE ITCZ NO TC DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BUT EXPECT WAVE
TO BRING SVRL DAYS OF ACTIVE WX SUN-TUE WITH TUE LOOKING LIKE THE
MOST ACTIVE DAY WHEN MODELS SHOW BEST INTERACTION WITH BEST 850 MB
VORTICITY AND DEEP TUTT TO THE NORTH.

WX BEGINS TO IMPROVE ON WED AS SAHARAN AIR LAYER ESTABLISHES OVR
THE AREA. SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL THEN START LOOKING MORE LIKE SEP
AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE ATLC AND BECOMES THE
DOMINANT WX FEATURE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

NICE LOOKING WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WEST AFRICAN MONSOON TROF EXITED
THE AFRICAN CONTINENT YESTERDAY. THIS WAVE ORIGINATED FROM A LARGE
MCS OVR WEST AFRICA AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF 10N. THIS
WAVE HAS SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE WAVE TROUGH AND
HAS DEEP MOISTURE IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE LOOKS LIKE A VERY GOOD
CANDIDATE TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE EVENTUALLY IN THE NEXT 5-10
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL DURG PRD. LOCALLY ISOLATED
PASSING -SHRA/SHRA MAINLY ACROSS TJSJ SURROUNDING WATERS. MTN TOP
OBSCR OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY MORNING OVR ERN CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF
PR DUE TO LOW SCUD CLDS AND PASSING SHRA. POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSRA
IN THE VCNTY OF TJMZ...BTWN 17/1730Z-23Z. SFC E WIND UP TO 10 KTS
TIL 17/13 THEN SFC WIND MAINLY FROM E AT 10-20 KTS BL0 2KFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS UP 20 KT. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE WITH INCLEMENT WX ALL
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN TSTMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 82 88 76 / 10 50 50 40
STT 89 82 89 81 / 30 50 50 50

Very interresting discussion. So, we should keep an eye on our next candidate much more potent and souther than the previous one. Let's wait and see how the situation evolves during the next couple of days.

[msbee]

Good morning
is that the "blob" that is currently NE of us?

[Gustywind]

Good morning
is that the "blob" that is currently NE of us?

No Barbara, it's about the newly area of disturbed weather with a strong circulation, who is exiting Africa. Here is the thread :
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115440&start=40&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

[Gustywind]

Good morning
is that the "blob" that is currently NE of us?

The bloob you're speaking is an area of showers and tstorms associated with a twave in vicinity...
Here is the feature mentionned by the NHC from the 8 AM Discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N70W
TO 13N71W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. PORTION OF THE WAVE N OF 16N IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE COVERING THE AREA FROM
PUERTO RICO TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 64W-75W
INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.

[msbee]

thanks Gusty....as always!

[Gustywind]

thanks Gusty....as always!

No problem always...a pleasure. It's our tent here and all my friends are my specials guests . Tell that Cycloneye Maybe i'm grabbing the informative virus

[Gustywind]

One thing is sure my friends, the season is heating steadily and we should look carefully to those all these twaves moving towards our direction. Cycloneye, will not said the contrary as many others islanders.

[cycloneye]

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
EXPECTED TO EXTENT INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC/GREATER ANTILLES AND
THE BAHAMAS EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 57 WEST WILL
MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING TO RESULT IN CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SURROUNDING WATER...
THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME WETTER AS TROPICAL WAVE...NOW LOCATED ALONG 57
WEST...MOVES MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...RIDGE ALOFT WILL ERODE AND TUTT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL EXTENT INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND THE GREATER ANTILLES/BAHAMAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE
ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY.

THE WAVE PASSAGE...THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT AS WELL AS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY LOOKING
LIKE THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING LIKELY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOOD IN ISOLATED AREAS.

A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN WITH LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE
THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL DURG PRD WITH SOME VCSH INTO
EVE. POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSRA IN THE VCNTY OF TJMZ...BTWN
17/1930Z-23Z. AT TNCM AND TKPK...TSRA OR VCTS AT THESE TAF SITES
THRU THE PRD. SFC WIND MAINLY FROM E AT 10-20 KTS BL0 2KFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS UP 18 KT. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY WITH INCLEMENT WEATHER
ALL COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 88 79 88 / 50 50 40 40
STT 82 89 81 89 / 50 50 50 50