Tropical Wave just off African Coast (Is Invest 94L)

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS seems to stall this at about 13N 31W from 96hrs to 162hrs so basically a 66hr stall which is probably unlikely unless a mid level low does indeed collapse the steering currents as modeled. Could this be a case of the GFS breaking down ridges too fast or does this have potential to stall in the central atlantic near 13N 40W

looks like it landfalls in So Florida at 372hrs but just like 18z it stalls around 35W with weak steering currents and doesnt really start moving until 180hrs while the 18z recurved to near Bermuda but

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Blinhart]

Something has to happen in the Central Atlantic to get rid of all that dry air, for there to be any decent Cape Verde systems this year. Also with that giant ULL south of the UK wreaking havoc with the upper atmosphere it will be interesting to see what happens in the Far and Central Atlantic this year.

[cycloneye]

Saved image at 14:00 UTC. Notice the big circulation around 10.5N just behind the convection.

[gatorcane]

If anything these strong waves will continue to moisten the MDR setting the stage for some waves to develop and sustain later on as we head into late August and September.

In fact the one I have my eye on is the one the GFS and ECMWF both are bullish on that rolls off Africa in a little more than a week from now.

Posted images in Global Model Discussion thread but soon may warrant a new thread for this system.

[hurricaneCW]

Something's gotta give soon across the Atlantic. I hope these waves could at least jump start the process and we could actually get a quality system in the Atlantic, still not seeing any models being too enthusiastic in the longer range.

[CrazyC83]

The more dry air Erin sucks in, the less dry air this has to deal with...

[cycloneye]

Here is the well defined circulation at the surface.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS shows well this system less than 100 hours..Let's see the rest of run to see how it does.

[SFLcane]

Something's gotta give soon across the Atlantic. I hope these waves could at least jump start the process and we could actually get a quality system in the Atlantic, still not seeing any models being too enthusiastic in the longer range.

ECMWF and GFS MJO ensembles both look very favorable for Atlantic Tropical cyclone development in late Aug/early Sep. Plenty of rising air. We are just into the REAL season.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS mantains the low pressure closer to Lesser Antilles.

[TheStormExpert]

How does the pattern look? Is it a recurve pattern or a U.S. threat type pattern?

[SFLcane]

How does the pattern look? Is it a recurve pattern or a U.S. threat type pattern?

Last time i checked the GFS ensembles have been showing pretty decent ridging over East US. No EC trough like late August-September 2010-12. On this particular gfs run the system recurves

[Hurricaneman]

How does the pattern look? Is it a recurve pattern or a U.S. threat type pattern?

Last time i checked the GFS ensembles have been showing pretty decent ridging over East US. No EC trough like late August-September 2010-12. On this particular gfs run the system recurves

I would monitor this just because any little change like a weaker trough or stronger ridge than modeled by the GFS could spell trouble along the east coast in 12 to 15 days


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[gatorcane]

Here is the 12Z GFS that just ran...regarding this wave, looks like we will need to watch it. Here it is at 168 hours and holding together.

I expect NHC to shade this wave when it rolls of Africa, maybe even the next outlook as it looks like development is a "go" for this one.

[cycloneye]

No mention at 2 PM TWO.

[alienstorm]

Won't be mentioned at the earliest tomorrow. Circulation still well inland over western Africa but I agree this will commence the heart of the season.

[gatorcane]

Won't be mentioned at the earliest tomorrow. Circulation still well inland over western Africa but I agree this will commence the heart of the season.

Maybe I am not quite understanding the 5-day Outlooks but certainly this would warrant at least a code yellow chance of development the next 5 days. Here is the 12Z GFS at 120 hours showing some development:

[Extratropical94]

Won't be mentioned at the earliest tomorrow. Circulation still well inland over western Africa but I agree this will commence the heart of the season.

Maybe I am not quite understanding the 5-day Outlooks but certainly this would warrant at least a code yellow chance of development the next 5 days. Here is the 12Z GFS at 120 hours showing some development:

http://img404.imageshack.us/img404/2826/wmyd.png

Agreed.

It was the same with pre-Erin, as long as the wave was inland no one cared too much about development chances in the five day range, but then both the 48 and the 120 hr chances went up rapidly.
I also think this wave will be completely over water in 5 days, thus a 0/20 chance would be reasonable.
I guess the forecasters need to gain a few months/years of experience with the new forecasts, so they can make them more accurate in the long term.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

['CaneFreak]

Don't think it has anything to do with forecaster experience. If there is a disturbance that is not an immediate threat to develop plus it is over land, why outlook it at all? Why not wait until it at least hits the water? I mean, there is effectively a 0 % chance of tropical cyclone formation when the disturbance is over land. The only reason they outlooked 92L the other day at 0/20 in 48 hours/5 days was because it had a lot of model support and it was already over water.

Agreed.

It was the same with pre-Erin, as long as the wave was inland no one cared too much about development chances in the five day range, but then both the 48 and the 120 hr chances went up rapidly.
I also think this wave will be completely over water in 5 days, thus a 0/20 chance would be reasonable.
I guess the forecasters need to gain a few months/years of experience with the new forecasts, so they can make them more accurate in the long term.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

12Z ECMWF tracks this system in a west to westnorthwest direction through 240 hrs. Here's the link
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTRO ... ml#picture