Florida please pay attention to Hurricane Isabel

[John]

The forecast is becoming ever so increasingly clear with Hurricane Isabel, latest Guidance is indicating my worst fear, FLORIDA IS LOOKING DOWN A GUN BARREL. I cannot stress enough the importance of this event. yesterday I made mention about the evolution of this upcoming pattern, this morning I can reassure you that things are not looking good, the pieces are falling into place. It's now more likely Florida will have to deal with a very major Hurricane. I also seen what Lexion Avila had to say this morning and fully agree with wxman57."The NHC has to be VERY careful about what is said." Most all of the Dynamical Track Guidance is taking Isabel on a track toward the West, I will say here at the office the chatter began shortly after our morning briefing, should we get any conference calls during the next few days I will be more than happy to elaborate to some degree. I have not changed the thinking here at all, by 2PM Sunday Isabel will be nearing the Bahamas, the big concern here is with the ridge, I really expect it to be shallow along 80 W as Isabel makes land fall somewhere along the FL coast, will use WPB for a reference point based on the shallow ridge causing a late WNW motion prior to land fall, The Hurricane is likely to stall inland for a while as it slowly heads Northward through the state. Again this is subject to many changes but for now it's my best thinking. As the event becomes media things will get crazy so please pay attention, remember what the roads were like during Floyd, as a precaution look now into possible shelter information and who will take animals, this is not to scare you just make you more aware.
More later

[Josephine96]

Very good but chilling advice, I hate to agree with you but this does look like it will be Central or South Florida's storm. It doesn't appear there will be a trough to turn it..

I also wish it were the weekend already so we'd have a much better idea of how strong of a threat she'll be when and if she arrives on Central or South Florida's door

[Anonymous]

Very Good advice John and done in a very calm manor!

[JCT777]

John - agreed that Florida has to watch this very carefully.

Josephine96 - IMO central or south Florida could see a landfalling hurricane, but I also think the trough will turn it more northerly. Unfortunately, this looks like it won't happen until after it makes landfall.

[hwwtdw]

and I stress MAY, is the dreaded Floyd scenario everyone feared with the storm moving up the coast either just offshore or just onshore perhaps all the way up the eastern seaboard? Granted this storm is not as large in diameter as Floyd, but it's still quite a sobering scenario. Is that what some posters may be hinting at? So the models that show a Florida impact and the models showing a Carolinas impact may be showing various stages of the same event????

This isn't a prediction. It's more of a question of what several unconnected posts on several boards may be hinting at. Just curious.

[JCT777]

hwwtdw - I have seen quite a few depictions and descriptions of what Isabel may do. And most of them show the storm turning NW or N either just before hitting Florida or not too long after hitting Florida. I have even seen a few that take Isabel into the GOM before turning her north. I guess we just have to wait and see. Hopefully, by Sunday or Monday there will be a better consensus on what is going to happen.

[wrkh99]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... vanh3.html


watch out FL

[mf_dolphin]

We have links to as many of the state emergency information centers that we could find. Here is the Florida link. It's a fairly slow site but has all the info you could ever want.

http://www.storm2k.org/Weather-Central/ ... lorida.htm

[dixiebreeze]

Thank you John. An excellent, measured analysis. Helps us get a grip on what may/will occur sometime next week.

I highly respect your opinion and plan to take all precautions before Isabel gets to Florida. Even though she will most likely make landfall on the Fla. E. coast, I have little doubt we on the narrow West Central Florida coast will feel the effects of Isabel eventually -- especially if she does make it to the GOM.

[John]

dixiebreeze, you are most welcome.
From what im seeing and again this is very early in the game, Isabel is not likely to head into the Gulf of Mexico, however you are on the W. FL coast so I would expect to feel the full gamut of Hurricane Force conditions should this event happen as suggested. I cannot stress enough the possible flooding potential this system may cause. Once the picture becomes clear IMO portions of the West coast will also be included in the Hurricane Warning area. Again we are many days away from the event so changes will be made. Pay close attention to your local NWS they will always be your best source to channel updated info.
John

[Steve H.]

John, where do you work??

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

As always John...Bravo! Keep us posted!

[Rainband]

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
207 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2003

CURRENTLY...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT WITH NOTHING ON RADAR AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ON PRE-ECLIPSE SAT IMAGERY.

SHORT TERM (WED-FRI)...DRY AIR STILL HANGING TOUGH WITH VIRTUALLY NO
RAINFALL ANYWHERE IN THE FA YESTERDAY. GFS SEEMED TO HANDLE PW'S
QUITE WELL AND WILL BE LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION. MESOETA SUGGESTS
WE WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TO
GENERATE SOME LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST TODAY. IF
THAT HAPPENS...IT PROBABLY WOULDN'T BE UNTIL EAST COAST SURGE
CLEARS THE WEST COAST...AND THAT COULD WELL BE A LITTLE TOO LATE FOR
CONVECTION. WILL KEEP POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGH TONIGHT...
THEN INTRODUCE 20 POPS ON THURSDAY. MESOETA AGAIN SUGGESTING ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE FOR SOME SHOWERS/THUNDER ON THURSDAY. GFS
DRIES US OUT EVEN MORE ON FRIDAY...BUT DONT WANT TO CHASE RUN-TO-RUN
INCONSISTENCIES SO WILL KEEP LOW END SCT POPS IN TO INDICATE AT
LEAST THE START OF HEADING BACK TO NORMAL POPS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WILL STILL SEE LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWER THAN NORMAL DEW POINTS ASSOCIATED WITH
DRIER AIR MASS.

EXTENDED (SAT-TUE)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND EXTEND SWWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS REMNANTS OF HENRI FINALLY WASHES OUT. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE GFS
AND MRF SHOW A FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PENINSULA ON TUESDAY
WHERE IT WILL WASH OUT WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER.
WITH THE RIDGE REMAINING TO OUR NORTH AND EAST AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED...WHICH WILL HELP TO SLOWLY INCREASE MOISTURE
LEVELS ACROSS THE FA. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD FAVOR LOW TO
MID RANGE (30-40%) SCATTERED POPS ALONG SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS EACH
AFTERNOON...AND WILL DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

.MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS AS WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
TPA 089/073 089/073 89 10213
FMY 090/074 090/073 89 10213
GIF 091/071 091/072 90 10213
SRQ 089/071 089/071 88 10213
BKV 088/066 088/066 89 10213

[ColdFront77]

The way things sound now, when Isabel moves toward the Gulf of Mexico, the trough that is currently not expected to turn "her" northward prior to Florida will eventually turn the system more northerly and eventually northeastward at some point.