WPAC: PEWA - Tropical Storm

[Extratropical94]

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INVEST, CP, C, , , , , 91, 2013, DB, O, 2013081512, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , CP912013
CP, 91, 2013081500, , BEST, 0, 76N, 1673W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 60, 0, 0,
CP, 91, 2013081506, , BEST, 0, 78N, 1681W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 60, 0, 0,
CP, 91, 2013081512, , BEST, 0, 81N, 1687W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 60, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

This is the thread I created moments before they assigned the invest number:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115438

[Yellow Evan]

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INVEST, CP, C, , , , , 91, 2013, DB, O, 2013081512, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , CP912013
CP, 91, 2013081500, , BEST, 0, 76N, 1673W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 60, 0, 0,
CP, 91, 2013081506, , BEST, 0, 78N, 1681W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 60, 0, 0,
CP, 91, 2013081512, , BEST, 0, 81N, 1687W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 60, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

This is the thread I created moments before they assigned the invest number:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115438

Why didn't you post it in the 2013 EPAC season thread


Anyhow, latest TWO:
2. An elongated trough of low pressure about 1150 miles southwest of Kauai is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Further development, if any, will be slow to occur, as this trough moves west at about 15 mph. There is a low chance, 20 percent, that this system will develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

[Extratropical94]

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INVEST, CP, C, , , , , 91, 2013, DB, O, 2013081512, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , CP912013
CP, 91, 2013081500, , BEST, 0, 76N, 1673W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 60, 0, 0,
CP, 91, 2013081506, , BEST, 0, 78N, 1681W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 60, 0, 0,
CP, 91, 2013081512, , BEST, 0, 81N, 1687W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 60, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

This is the thread I created moments before they assigned the invest number:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115438

Why didn't you post it in the 2013 EPAC season thread


Anyhow, latest TWO:
2. An elongated trough of low pressure about 1150 miles southwest of Kauai is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Further development, if any, will be slow to occur, as this trough moves west at about 15 mph. There is a low chance, 20 percent, that this system will develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

Disturbances like this get their own threads in the Atlantic, thats why.
No, jk, I simply forgot that the Season thread existed.

[Yellow Evan]

2. An area of low pressure about 1175 miles southwest of Kauai has shown signs of increased organization over the past several hours, with thunderstorms increasing in coverage and intensity. Conditions are conducive for development as this feature moves west near 20 mph. This system has a high chance, 60 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Wow just wow. 2 systems in the central pacific at the same time.

[Yellow Evan]

Wow just wow. 2 systems in the central pacific at the same time.

Not quite. They are not TD's yet.

[Cyclenall]

I was amazed when I saw the Cpac today...some type of switch was turned on here. I don't think I have ever seen two circled red areas for high chance at formation like that and close too. Also different, the ITCZ is not really involved here which is also rare. Both look like TDs and TSs already with the best looking organization on the planet currently (Erin and Utor don't look as good currently IMO). Very interested to see where this goes. After years of almost no homegrown activity maybe this will be its shinning moment after that Gil problem. Mid-August tends to be the peak of the Cpac as well.

[jaguarjace]

Saved loop.

[Yellow Evan]

Saved loop.

Looks close.

[jaguarjace]

An area of low pressure about 1175 miles southwest of Kauai has shown signs
of increased organization over the past six hours, with thunderstorms increasing in
coverage and intensity. Conditions are conducive for development as this feature
moves west near 20 mph. This system has a high chance, 80 percent, of becoming
a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

[hurricanes1234]

The following is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution, including Storm2k.org. For official information, please see the NWS products.

Does anyone have information as to whether it got renumbered yet?

[jaguarjace]

TCFA


WTPN22 PHNC 152300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151421Z AUG 13//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
280 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.4N 168.9W TO 12.1N 178.1W WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 151730Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 169.8W. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 169.8W,
APPROXIMATELY 1015 NM SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU, HAWAII. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSOLIDATING BANDS OF DEEP
CONVECTION BUILDING TOWARDS A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LLCC IS SUPPORTING FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. BASED ON THE PROXIMITY TO
THE ANTICYCLONE AXIS, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AT
MODERATE LEVELS (10 TO 20 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE (28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS) THROUGH THE REGION SURROUNDING
THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
162300Z.//

[mrbagyo]

91C will be a basin crosser

[Cyclenall]

Looking at that loop this is obviously a tropical cyclone.

[supercane4867]

What are the CPHC waiting for?

[cycloneye]

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[hurricanes1234]

It's Tropical Storm Pewa!

CP, 01, 2013081612, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1730W, 35, 1005, TS,

[Yellow Evan]

Pewa has arrived after 3 years of waiting!

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

TROPICAL STORM PEWA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012013
1500 UTC FRI AUG 16 2013

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 173.5W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 15SE 15SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 173.5W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 173.0W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 10.8N 175.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 11.4N 177.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.2N 179.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.0N 177.8E
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.0N 172.5E
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 17.0N 167.0E
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 19.0N 162.0E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.2N 173.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$

[Meow]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 10.2N 173.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 10.8N 175.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 11.4N 177.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 12.2N 179.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 13.0N 177.8E 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 15.0N 172.5E 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 17.0N 167.0E 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 19.0N 162.0E 35 KT 40 MPH

If Pewa follows what CPHC forecasts, JMA will issue warnings of Pewa at 00Z on Sunday. If the TD east of Taiwan becomes Trami before Sunday, Pewa will be 1313, or Pewa will be 1312.