ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Bailey1777]

no doubt 21.5 91.5 naked swirl.....wxman57 could this be our prayers for rain---or does it bury itself into mexico

['CaneFreak]

I think it heads west and stays south of the shear axis. Will it be well organized? Not likely. Most of the convection will be supressed to south and east.

is becoming better organized now. No question about it.

Still, with the strong shear expected in the west Gulf in about 48 hours, this would only be a TD or a weak TS. The Canadian seems clueless as it is developing the system despite a very high shear environment

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Upper-level high pressure is already expanding across much of the western Gulf. Once this upper-level low weakens, we should see 92L become a tropical cyclone.

[tolakram]

live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[Ntxw]

Definitely agree it's pretty organized, just lacks convection. If it gets it's act together quickly might get interesting.

[Bailey1777]

circulation seems to be well established at the surface---wheres the convection---not moving much----

[Bailey1777]

will convection to the east wrap---or is it going to get robbed

['CaneFreak]

Yes the convection will wrap around it once the ULL to the east dies (in the process now).

will convection to the east wrap---or is it going to get robbed

[GCANE]

Moderate rain rate is helping to slowly erode the ULL.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_a ... W.77pc.jpg

In fact, it looks like rain rate is increasing.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_a ... xico.0.jpg


The higher the rain rate and the closer it moves to the COC, the faster the ULL will disappear.

[Pearl River]

Joe B's tweet from about 20 minutes ago.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

Gulf system modeled after July 4th ALAFla event.further west. Likely to strong winds, heavy rains on weekend for n cent gulf named or not

[Bailey1777]

so what is keeping 92l basically stationary right now and if the trough was going to effect it shouldnt we have seen some move towards the north by now

[wxman57]

so what is keeping 92l basically stationary right now and if the trough was going to effect it shouldnt we have seen some move towards the north by now

It's too weak and far south to be picked up by that upper trof. More likely it will track slowly WNW. Could be some significant rain for south Texas early next week. Possibly even rain up to the mid to upper TX coast.

[Nikki]

so what is keeping 92l basically stationary right now and if the trough was going to effect it shouldnt we have seen some move towards the north by now

It's too weak and far south to be picked up by that upper trof. More likely it will track slowly WNW. Could be some significant rain for south Texas early next week. Possibly even rain up to the mid to upper TX coast.

It will stay weak, right? If so this is some very good news for Texas!!

[HurriGuy]

This probably throws Louisiana in the mix for rainfall total too?

['CaneFreak]

There will most likely be some severe weather too. That's a potent trough for this time of year. Add in a little low level shear from a tropical system to the south and could see some tornadoes.

It's too weak and far south to be picked up by that upper trof. More likely it will track slowly WNW. Could be some significant rain for south Texas early next week. Possibly even rain up to the mid to upper TX coast.

[Bailey1777]

thanks wxman57 just want rain...where is everyone.. post guys i want some reading material.

[Dean4Storms]

12z GFS still with at least an 850mb Vort headed for AL/MS border.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_13.png

[Rgv20]

Steering for 92L as of 3z today.....Basically no steering should drift to the WNW/NW for today.



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92L still showing that it has some strong 850mb vorticity, if convection can fire in the center 92L can attain TD status pretty easily.


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[Stormcenter]

Ok sounds like JB obviously is not seeing the TX scenario here. He is calling for a N.Central GOM event. I personally will believe it when I see
it in reference to any of the predictions being made concerning 92L. It's not an easy call. IMO

Joe B's tweet from about 20 minutes ago.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

Gulf system modeled after July 4th ALAFla event.further west. Likely to strong winds, heavy rains on weekend for n cent gulf named or not

[wxman57]

12z GFS still with at least an 850mb Vort headed for AL/MS border.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_13.png

Yeah, 12Z GFS has not a drop of rain for TX from it. Still tremendous uncertainty in its future track. I am fairly sure it will move ashore somewhere between Veracruz and Key West.