ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Oh come on steve, have a little fun. You should want the models pointing at us here in LA cause you know that means it will never happen, unless we're less than 24 hrs out and even then...

[ROCK]

>>yep they are getting comical as they all seem to hedge their bets and leave something behind in the BOC. Honestly I dont think what the CMC forms is 92L but one of her offspring...

You are the model king. What was the one Monday or Tuesday (CMC???) that sat a piece of energy down the BOC and ejected up like 2 or 3 other "closed" isobar pieces?

yeah it was odd run...92L has been odd....remember when we had a stable hurricane to track...you know, the ones that had an actual eye...those were the fun days!!

[Steve]

Dynogel > Hurricanes

[Rgv20]

12zUKMET has 92L missing the trough and slipping until the BOC in 48hrs. By 72hrs it shows strong 850mb Vorticity and low shear for 92L to start consolidating a bit....The forecast models have not been consistent at all so take it with a grain of salt. IMO if 92L can get to the BOC there might be sufficient time and low wind shear for 92L to develop a bit.

48hrs


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72hrs


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[Stormlover2012]

What does euro show?

[Rgv20]

18zGFS looks like it splits the 850mb Vorticity...1 towards SE LA and the other in the BOC..


Forecast valid for Saturday Evening..


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[cycloneye]

00z Plots.

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0007 UTC FRI AUG 16 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922013) 20130816 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130816 0000 130816 1200 130817 0000 130817 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.8N 89.1W 20.6N 90.7W 21.4N 92.0W 22.0N 93.1W
BAMD 19.8N 89.1W 20.0N 90.5W 20.3N 92.0W 20.6N 93.4W
BAMM 19.8N 89.1W 20.2N 90.6W 20.7N 92.1W 21.1N 93.5W
LBAR 19.8N 89.1W 20.5N 90.8W 21.4N 92.7W 22.6N 94.3W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130818 0000 130819 0000 130820 0000 130821 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.7N 93.9W 23.4N 95.3W 24.0N 97.3W 25.1N 100.0W
BAMD 20.9N 94.6W 21.6N 96.4W 22.0N 98.1W 22.9N 100.1W
BAMM 21.5N 94.6W 22.0N 96.4W 22.3N 98.4W 22.9N 100.9W
LBAR 24.0N 95.6W 29.1N 96.6W 33.1N 96.3W 36.1N 93.9W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.8N LONCUR = 89.1W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 18.8N LONM12 = 87.6W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 17.8N LONM24 = 85.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Rgv20]

0z Model Tracks



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[ROCK]

looks pretty much correct...I think that north half of 92L might split off and head towards the NE at some point. Some models still showing that...Even the NAM...

so whats left after it hits the BOC? might try to develop and head north before the ridge builds back in...might get as far as STX...dont know...its like we will start all over once it gets into the BOC...

[ROCK]

Looks like the NAM wants to send a weak TS into the mid-texas coast at 84hrs...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... nd_us.html

[ROCK]

Looks like the 0Z CMC wants to take a 990MB into mid-texas coast....

[Sambucol]

Looks like the 0Z CMC wants to take a 990MB into mid-texas coast....

At this point, that wouldn't surprise me.

[Dean4Storms]

Anyone know what happened to the 06z GFS runs? It's 7am cst and nothing anywhere that I can find!

[ninel conde]

Anyone know what happened to the 06z GFS runs? It's 7am cst and nothing anywhere that I can find!

cant find them either

[Steve]

06GFS is on the NCEP site. Try this link. If it doesn't direct link, then go google 'NCEP Models" click Model Guidance and then Western Atlantic WATL I think.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php

[duris]

From Twitter: "NCEP reporting major disk error, GFS and other models are not available from NOMADS."

[Ptarmigan]

I notice the models take it towards Texas or Mexico. Had the storm developed before it entered Yucatan Peninsula, it would of went northward towards Northern Gulf Coast instead of Western Gulf Coast.

[HouTXmetro]

It would be nice if somebody could post the models. Seems like just the other day we couldn't get enough of models being posted.

[Dean4Storms]

NCEP Ensembles......

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al922013_ens.png

[Rgv20]

:spam: It would be nice if somebody could post the models. Seems like just the other day we couldn't get enough of models being posted.

Too much wind shield wiping going on in the model world! lol Besides the two best models (GFS&ECMWF) Don't show much of 92L.


0zECMWF Ensembles does show some uncertainty with sea level pressures in the Western GOM..


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