Tropical Wave in NW Caribbean/Yucatan (Is Invest 95L)

[Gustywind]

I wonder if thIs pouch going to surprise by sneaking low and try to develop?

Yeah that a good thinking Cycloneye , let's continue to monitor it in case of...

[gatorcane]

I wonder if thIs pouch going to surprise by sneaking low and try to develop?

12Z GEM develops it. Here we are at 126 hours just north of the Leewards.

[cycloneye]

NAVGEM takes this pouch to the islands and has a low pressure.

[gatorcane]

No mention for the 2pm EST TWO.

I circled the area of the pouch that might develop, though chances look low at the moment.

[cycloneye]

Closeup view of weak circulation around 12N-44W.

[cycloneye]

If the pouch can get rid of the ITCZ,it may have an opportunity.

[Gustywind]

8 PM Discussion.


A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING
AN AXIS FROM 21N45W TO 12N45W AND MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE CONTINUE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOWER LEVELS.
HOWEVER...METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DUST AND DRY
AIR SPREADING OVER THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION.

[Hammy]

I'm noticing the low-level westerly flow extending further west as the wave moves west, so I'm wondering if there may be something to some of the models wanting to develop it down the road.

[Gustywind]

2 AM Discussion.


TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N47W
TO 12N47W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR DEEP CONVECTION.

[Gustywind]

8 AM Discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N47W
TO 12N47W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR DEEP CONVECTION.

[ninel conde]

joe bastardi is watching it.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 10m

BTW keep an eye on the sneaky little devil underneath the dry air at 12 n 45 west. We are pic.twitter.com/OQOGXtyb6R

[cycloneye]

Maybe a yellow circle and invest later today?

[perk]

Maybe a yellow circle and invest later today?

http://oi39.tinypic.com/jh7yxg.jpg

I think this one will be of interest in a couple days.

[Steve H.]

Agree with Bastardi. There is some suspicious tumbleweed at around 12/45. This does bear watching. Erin and 92L are losing my interest right now. But not out of the game by any means yet.

[floridasun78]

could this be a invest soon ??looking better by hour

[northjaxpro]

could this be a invest soon ??looking better by hour

The entity is trying to detach itself from the ITCZ. If this happens, it definitely would have a chance to develop approaching the Leeward Islands in a few days. Compared to yesterday, it is acquiring more concentrated convection and looks healthier. We will see what happens.

[tolakram]

Visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[Fego]

Here is another visible floater, from RAMSDIS.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC develops it and sends it through the NE Leewards on a recurve path:

Loop:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... n_atl.html

90 hours from now:

[floridasun78]

no talk about area at 2pm outlook so not buying cmc