ATL: ERIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Gustywind]

SSD numbers.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
16/0545 UTC 16.0N 30.0W T1.5/2.0 ERIN
15/2345 UTC 15.3N 27.9W T1.5/2.0 ERIN
15/1745 UTC 14.9N 26.7W T2.0/2.0 ERIN
15/1145 UTC 14.5N 25.8W T2.0/2.0 ERIN

[Gustywind]

8 AM Discussion.


TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 15.5N 29.1W AT 16/0300 UTC
OR ABOUT 295 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 13
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUST TO 45 KT. PLEASE SEE
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-16N
BETWEEN 28W-31W.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track still a TS but looks pathetic.

AL, 05, 2013081612, , BEST, 0, 166N, 316W, 35, 1007, TS

[Gustywind]

Steady decreasing numbers.


DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
16/1145 UTC 16.7N 31.4W T1.0/1.5 ERIN
16/0545 UTC 16.0N 30.0W T1.5/2.0 ERIN

[HurricaneDREW92]

Gaining some convection..

['CaneFreak]

Fixing to be downgraded to a TD at 11 am due to a lack of convection. This thing is toast.

[cycloneye]

Downgraded.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 16 2013

...ERIN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 32.1W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[Hurricane_Luis]

Dry air probably caused Erin to weaken. Just a naked swirl now.

[hurricaneCW]

Yawn. Another dead system. CSU showed above average activity coming up the next two weeks though they did mention some of those ACE units would be from Erin, which now is a dead stick, so I wonder if the forecast is closer to normal for the next two weeks.

[hurricanes1234]

The following is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution, including Storm2k.org. For official information, please see the NWS products.

Erin most likely peaked in strength yesterday morning, when its satellite presentation was best. Even though the NHC is forecasting it to remain a tropical cyclone for some time again, I think it will follow the classic storm pattern of this year and degenerate into a wave by tonight or very early tomorrow, if not sooner. Then, its remnants could possibly linger for days as a convectionless vortex, or probably a system that is severely sheared. As to whether it will redevelop in the future, I really can't say this far out.

[Ntxw]

Satellite view. Detached from the ITCZ and moving away. If this was last year heading north might have been a savior but not this year, instability in the subtropics are not that favorable. I don't think we'll see much more from Erin or what's left. Maybe some convection here and there daily, no harm keeping a half open eye on this one.

[ninel conde]

Yawn. Another dead system. CSU showed above average activity coming up the next two weeks though they did mention some of those ACE units would be from Erin, which now is a dead stick, so I wonder if the forecast is closer to normal for the next two weeks.

i was wondering why they expected erin to add much to the ACE.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Well we are at DMIN...

['CaneFreak]

They are several hours ahead of us here in the US so its not really DMIN. It's mostly stable, dry air and cooler SSTs.

Well we are at DMIN...

[HurricaneDREW92]

They are several hours ahead of us here in the US so its not really DMIN. It's mostly stable, dry air and cooler SSTs.

Well we are at DMIN...

Ik. It's 5-6 there right now. That's about DMIN.

['CaneFreak]

Not really. Sun is going down and the mid levels are starting to cool a bit. Again, dry air and cooler ssts are the problem not the time of day.

THE OBSERVED WEAKENING IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STABLE AIR...AS SEEN IN THE GOES-R PROVING GROUND AIRMASS PRODUCT.

Ik. It's 5-6 there right now. That's about DMIN.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Not really. Sun is going down and the mid levels are starting to cool a bit. Again, dry air and cooler ssts are the problem not the time of day.

Ik. It's 5-6 there right now. That's about DMIN.

I know dry air is the problem, I'm just pointing out some convection may pop soon.

[CrazyC83]

One thought: maybe the name was wasted and Erin was never more than a tropical depression? Dvorak never got above T2.0, and the only data supporting an upgrade was a 33 kt ASCAT pass (which might have been transient?)

[Spin]

One thought: maybe the name was wasted and Erin was never more than a tropical depression? Dvorak never got above T2.0, and the only data supporting an upgrade was a 33 kt ASCAT pass (which might have been transient?)

I think this may be considered in the reanalysis as well.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

IMO NHC is likely very uncertain on Erin's intensity. They have Erin as a tropical depression next five days without any change in strength.

INIT 16/1500Z 16.9N 32.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 17.9N 34.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 19.1N 36.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 19.9N 38.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 20.2N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 21.1N 44.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 23.5N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 25.5N 52.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

['CaneFreak]

What makes you think this is any more than a 35 mph TD? What makes you think they are so uncertain on the intensity forecast?

IMO NHC is likely very uncertain on Erin's intensity. They have Erin as a tropical depression next five days without any change in strength.

INIT 16/1500Z 16.9N 32.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 17.9N 34.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 19.1N 36.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 19.9N 38.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 20.2N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 21.1N 44.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 23.5N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 25.5N 52.5W 30 KT 35 MPH