Tropical Wave in NW Caribbean/Yucatan (Is Invest 95L)

[cycloneye]

No mention at 2 PM TWO.

[floridasun78]

their may be thinking same thing going affect td ERIN going affect this wave

[CrazyC83]

their may be thinking same thing going affect td ERIN going affect this wave

It's lower in latitude and seems to be pretty much clear of the SAL, but would be very slow. Could be a Caribbean issue or an EPAC issue.

[cycloneye]

It has to detach from ITCZ to then have a better chance.

['CaneFreak]

Agreed and the vorticity structure is such that this is not a rapidly developing system.

It has to detach from ITCZ to then have a better chance.

[Gustywind]

2 PM Discussion.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W TO THE SOUTH OF
22N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE.

[floridasun78]

2 PM Discussion.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W TO THE SOUTH OF
22N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE.

wave look good to me i see alot storm with it http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/ir4-l.jpg

[Gustywind]

Floridasun78, let's wait and see if this verifies even if NHC forecast do not expected too much action from this twave ( for the moment). Anyway, strong showers and tstorms could reach the Leewards this week end. Something to keep an eye on as usual.

[floridasun78]

Floridasun78, let's wait and see if this verifies even if NHC forecast do not expected too much action from this twave ( for the moment). Anyway, strong showers and tstorms could reach the Leewards this week end. Something to keep an eye on as usual.

have your weather office say any thing about rain coming from this wave?

[cycloneye]

We expect plenty of rain in PR from this wave.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED AROUND 50
WEST LONGITUDE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
MONDAY. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
ITCZ WHICH WILL CREATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA. LATEST SJU-GFS PROGNOSIS SOUNDING ARE INDICATING PW VALUES
WILL INCREASE UP TO 2.25 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...UNDER A
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW BETWEEN 0-3KM LAYER. THESE FACTORS...WILL
COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...BETWEEN MONDAY AD WEDNESDAY NEXT
WEEK. KEEP INFORMED ON LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE HOW THIS
SITUATION EVOLVES.

[Gustywind]

Floridasun78, let's wait and see if this verifies even if NHC forecast do not expected too much action from this twave ( for the moment). Anyway, strong showers and tstorms could reach the Leewards this week end. Something to keep an eye on as usual.

have your weather office say any thing about rain coming from this wave?

Yeah they said that wet weather conditions should spread on us this week end till Tuesday. Should it verifies too.

[cycloneye]

Low pressure added at 18z surface analysis.

[floridasun78]

Low pressure added at 18z surface analysis.

so low with wave

[colbroe]

Looks like thunder storm activity is on the increase.

[Gustywind]

8 PM Discussion.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM 21N51W TO 10N52W AND MOVES
WESTWARD NEAR 15-20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW
THE WAVE CONTINUE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT
AT THE LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER...METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT
WHICH IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.

[floridasun78]

8 PM Discussion.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM 21N51W TO 10N52W AND MOVES
WESTWARD NEAR 15-20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW
THE WAVE CONTINUE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT
AT THE LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER...METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT
WHICH IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.

i dont understand their say DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT
WHICH IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION put i see storms increase with wave

[Gustywind]

8 PM Discussion.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM 21N51W TO 10N52W AND MOVES
WESTWARD NEAR 15-20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW
THE WAVE CONTINUE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT
AT THE LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER...METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT
WHICH IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.

i dont understand their say DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT
WHICH IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION put i see storms increase with wave

On thing is sure monitor it

[Gustywind]

Looks like the low added in the previous surface analysis has weaken and do no exist.

8 AM Discussion.


TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N56W TO
10N56W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA
OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR DEEP CONVECTION.

[Gustywind]

2 PM Discussion.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W TO THE SOUTH OF
22N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N
TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

[floridasun78]

their add low again on map 1011 low east leedwards here link to map http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/USA_latest.gif