ATL: ERIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: Re:

#201 Postby Spin » Fri Aug 16, 2013 1:44 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:What makes you think this is any more than a 35 mph TD? What makes you think they are so uncertain on the intensity forecast? :hmm:

Spin wrote:IMO NHC is likely very uncertain on Erin's intensity. They have Erin as a tropical depression next five days without any change in strength.

INIT 16/1500Z 16.9N 32.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 17.9N 34.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 19.1N 36.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 19.9N 38.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 20.2N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 21.1N 44.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 23.5N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 25.5N 52.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

:oops:

Sorry, I've been unclear and I didn't mean to bash the NHC. I do think that Erin is now a 35 mph TD, but I also think it's quite unlikely for it to stay for five days at a same intensity so the forecast might be a compromise solution or such. I didn't mean to bash the NHC.
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#202 Postby Gustywind » Fri Aug 16, 2013 1:49 pm

Latest SSD numbers. Quick decreasing trend...


DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
16/1800 UTC 17.4N 32.8W TOO WEAK ERIN
16/1145 UTC 16.7N 31.4W T1.0/1.5 ERIN
16/0545 UTC 16.0N 30.0W T1.5/2.0 ERIN
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#203 Postby Gustywind » Fri Aug 16, 2013 1:50 pm

2 PM Discussion.


ERIN HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN IS NEAR 16.9N 32.1W AT 16/1500 UTC.
THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 870 KM/470 NM TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. ERIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST 15
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40
KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 29W AND 34W.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#204 Postby HurricaneDREW92 » Fri Aug 16, 2013 2:04 pm

If it stays weak, will it move further west? Thanks.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#205 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 16, 2013 2:09 pm

17:45Z (earlier today)

Image
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#206 Postby HurricaneDREW92 » Fri Aug 16, 2013 2:12 pm

Erin 4hrs ago:

Image

Now:
Image

Not much but convection IS popping.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#207 Postby Hammy » Fri Aug 16, 2013 4:21 pm

nice area of convection has blown up in last two hours.

Image
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#208 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 16, 2013 7:42 pm

Back to TS in 00z Best Track.

AL, 05, 2013081700, , BEST, 0, 182N, 340W, 35, 1006, TS
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#209 Postby Hammy » Fri Aug 16, 2013 8:01 pm

Are they waiting until it crosses 35W to put the floater on 30 minute intervals?
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Re:

#210 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 16, 2013 8:05 pm

Hammy wrote:Are they waiting until it crosses 35W to put the floater on 30 minute intervals?


I think that is the plan.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#211 Postby HurricaneDREW92 » Fri Aug 16, 2013 8:08 pm

cycloneye wrote:Back to TS in 00z Best Track.

AL, 05, 2013081700, , BEST, 0, 182N, 340W, 35, 1006, TS

Yeah looks to have strengthened a wee bit :D
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#212 Postby Gustywind » Fri Aug 16, 2013 8:23 pm

Back to 1.0 numbers...


16/2345 UTC 18.2N 33.6W T1.0/1.0 ERIN
16/1800 UTC 17.4N 32.8W TOO WEAK ERIN
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#213 Postby Gustywind » Fri Aug 16, 2013 8:25 pm

8 PM Discussion.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 17.7N 33.3W AT 16/2100
UTC OR ABOUT 545 NM W-NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W-NW
AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB AND THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUST TO 40 KT.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED...SAHARAN DRY AIR
INTRUSION TO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE ONE OF THE
FACTORS ACTING TO REDUCE IT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N-NW OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN
32W-34W. SEE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
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#214 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Aug 16, 2013 8:30 pm

DMax underway that is increasing convection?
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#215 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 16, 2013 9:34 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 16 2013

...ERIN IS A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 34.5W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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#216 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Aug 16, 2013 9:43 pm

Ship data finds it is a tropical storm - 40 kt sustained wind from a ship. Likely a bit high but still supports 35 kt. Most likely in the BT that period of a tropical depression will be upgraded up to a storm, since there isn't any real change in the satellite presentation.
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#217 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 17, 2013 8:07 am

Latest SSD numbers. Slight increase.


17/1145 UTC 19.5N 35.2W T1.5/1.5 ERIN
17/0545 UTC 18.6N 35.0W T1.0/1.0 ERIN
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#218 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 17, 2013 8:19 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
500 AM AST SAT AUG 17 2013

...ERIN STILL A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 35.6W
ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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#219 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 17, 2013 8:19 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171135
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 17 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERIN...LOCATED WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI
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#220 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 17, 2013 8:20 am

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS CENTERED NEAR 18.9N 35.6W AT 17/0900 UTC
OR ABOUT 690 NM W-NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 13
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUST TO 45 KT. PLEASE SEE
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CONVECTION
IS N OF THE EXPESED LOW LEVEL CENTER THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 33W-
36W.
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