ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[wxman57]

Very interesting. This was from 21 hours ago:

https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/36811 ... 49/photo/1

@wxbrad 21h
.@NHCDirector Are we experimenting with tracks for #Invest areas or was this a internal test sent out? Curious.

@NHCDirector 2m
.@wxbrad This year NHC is experimenting in house with track/intensity forecasts for disturbances with high chance of formation.

Do we know what this is about?

At one of the hurricane conferences I attended last spring, maybe the National Hurricane Conference, one of the NHC presenters mentioned that the hurricane center was experimenting with issuing tracks on disturbances. They've also been experimenting with 7-day tracks in-house for several years. The 7-day track may go operational in 2014-2015. Tracks on disturbances, if ever, beyond that time frame.

[Sanibel]

Mexican dry air on the WSW half +.

[southerngale]

Long time lurker here - finally deciding to ask a question...

If the "wake depression" the NWS out of New Orleans mentions does head towards the LA coast, what kind of wind velocity would be expected? I see mention of rainfall events, but nothing about wind speeds.

Welcome to Storm2k! And feel free to ask any questions you might have.

[Bailey1777]

wxman57 forget models member opinions and all that....just your professional take....does this mess even make td?

[wxman57]

wxman57 forget models member opinions and all that....just your professional take....does this mess even make td?

I think it will. But it appears that LLC is dissipating. Definitely moving SW now, something we've seen many times. Look for a new center to form farther north closer to the convection.

[Bailey1777]

ok thanks as always.i thought i saw that sw shove also.

[Stormcenter]

The ingredients are coming together. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html

[GCANE]

Seeing a notable pressure drop on the BOC Buoy

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_met.php?s ... _label=CDT

[GCANE]

Seeing a notable pressure drop on the BOC Buoy

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_met.php?s ... _label=CDT

A little more sustained winds as well

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_met.php?s ... _label=CDT

[GCANE]

Water vapor filling in on the west to south sides.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html


IMHO, good chance DMAX breaks the inversion tonight and convection kicks off.

[HurriGuy]

Is it my eyes or do I see a new LLC forming closer to convection? Seems like thr one we've all been watching is starting to dissolve. Opinions?

[Stormcenter]

Interesting observation.

Is it my eyes or do I see a new LLC forming closer to convection? Seems like thr one we've all been watching is starting to dissolve. Opinions?

[pcolaman]

Looks indeed like a center relocation to me...

[wxman57]

Is it my eyes or do I see a new LLC forming closer to convection? Seems like thr one we've all been watching is starting to dissolve. Opinions?

That's what I said in my post above.

[USTropics]

Looks like that persistent ULL may have finally become rain filled.

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?res=4km&chnl=wv&domain=amr&size=large&period=2880&incr=30&rr=900&satplat=goeseast&overlay=off&animtype=flash

[HurriGuy]

Sorry wxman57...should've looked before I typed. I definitely see what you are seeing though.

[Stormcenter]

I missed that too.

Sorry wxman57...should've looked before I typed. I definitely see what you are seeing though.

[Portastorm]

Gang, I posted this request earlier and am doing it again ... please, please, PLEASE use the "URL" command in the little windows above the text box when you are going to include a link to another website. It's simple. You click on that URL box and all you have to do is paste your link between the two URL commands. Thank you.

[Javlin]

wxman57 forget models member opinions and all that....just your professional take....does this mess even make td?

I think it will. But it appears that LLC is dissipating. Definitely moving SW now, something we've seen many times. Look for a new center to form farther north closer to the convection.

Using USTropics link did we just see a transition of an ULL?

[bella_may]

NWS New Orleans thinks a wake depression is on the way? We had one come through here in the spring and it was really gusty for several hours....MGC

OH boy I remember that. I believe there were 60-70 MPH winds at the surface in some places.