WPAC: PEWA - Tropical Storm

[jaguarjace]

[hurricanes1234]

The following is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution, including Storm2k.org. For official information, please see the NWS products.

I know this may be a little far-fetched, but considering that the discussion stated that Pewa is over warm water and low wind shear for the next couple days at least, what is the likelihood of rapid intensification?

[Meow]

The following is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution, including Storm2k.org. For official information, please see the NWS products.

I know this may be a little far-fetched, but considering that the discussion stated that Pewa is over warm water and low wind shear for the next couple days at least, what is the likelihood of rapid intensification?

Pewa may have to face an enemy first on Sunday: JMA

[brunota2003]

JMA loves under forecasting things haha I like the name, makes me want to make laser noise! Pewpewpee!

[Spin]

Pewa may have to face an enemy first on Sunday: JMA

That's funny!

For some reason this intensity forecast reminds me of that one in first advisories for Erin, but I hope Pewa won't backfire.

init 16/1500z 10.2n 173.5w 35 kt 40 mph
12h 17/0000z 10.8n 175.1w 40 kt 45 mph
24h 17/1200z 11.4n 177.2w 45 kt 50 mph
36h 18/0000z 12.2n 179.6w 50 kt 60 mph
48h 18/1200z 13.0n 177.8e 50 kt 60 mph
72h 19/1200z 15.0n 172.5e 45 kt 50 mph
96h 20/1200z 17.0n 167.0e 40 kt 45 mph
120h 21/1200z 19.0n 162.0e 35 kt 40 mph

Still, it's quite interesting to see a storm form in this part of the Pacific, no matter the intensity.

[hurricanes1234]

The following is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution, including Storm2k.org. For official information, please see the NWS products.

Remains at 35 knots.

CP, 01, 2013081618, , BEST, 0, 96N, 1740W, 35, 1005, TS,

This is the best 40 mph storm I've ever seen. It has a well-defined outflow and banding features, and its overall appearance is compact and impressive. If I just took a glimpse at this storm without knowing, I would have guessed that its winds were 60-65 mph.

[beoumont]

Might be having some Fujiwara goin' on with this and the possibly developing system to the ENE. The big one in all likelihood will swallow up the little one.

[Hurricanehink]

Might be having some Fujiwara goin' on with this and the possibly developing system to the ENE. The big one in all likelihood will swallow up the little one.

Reminds me of Alika and Ele in 2002.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PEWA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012013
1100 AM HST FRI AUG 16 2013

BASED ON MICROWAVE PASSES JUST BEFORE 1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF
PEWA...PRONOUNCED /PEH-VAH/...WAS ADJUSTED SOUTH IN THE RUNNING
BEST TRACK. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM THE FIX AGENCIES CAME IN WITH 35
KT ACROSS THE BOARD SO THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
PACKAGE. CLOUD TOPS FROM LAST NIGHT/S BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER HAVE STARTED TO WARM A BIT BUT A NEW BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER DEVELOPED IN THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. PEWA HAS GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND THE CIMSS ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK VERTICAL
SHEAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR PEWA IS 280/12 KT...OR TOWARD THE WEST. A
GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE OBJECTIVE AIDS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE AND HAS BEEN NUDGED SOUTH A
BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE ADJUSTMENT IN THE INITIAL
POSITION.

ALONG THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND ITS CURRENT VALUE NEAR 28C AND OCEANIC
HEAT CONTENT WILL BE INCREASING. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR AT THIS
POINT WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE AFTER PEWA CROSSES THE DATELINE AND APPROACHES AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW. BASED ON THESE FACTORS...THE CURRENT PACKAGE CALLS FOR
PEWA TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY AT AROUND 36 TO 48 HOURS THEN WEAKEN.
THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS CLOSE TO THE HWRF
TREND. IF THE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH BEYOND 72
HOURS...PEWA MAY WEAKEN MUCH FASTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 9.7N 174.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 10.1N 176.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 10.8N 178.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 11.5N 178.6E 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 12.2N 176.2E 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 13.5N 171.2E 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 15.0N 166.0E 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 17.5N 161.0E 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

[hurricanes1234]

If Pewa does manage to absorb 90C, will it result in the storm intensifying? Or will it be detrimental to Pewa?

[beoumont]

Might be having some Fujiwara goin' on with this and the possibly developing system to the ENE. The big one in all likelihood will swallow up the little one.

Reminds me of Alika and Ele in 2002.

There were two in 1990 like this as well in the E. Pac; I think one of them was named Hernan. I have the satellite loop on file somewhere.

If Pewa does manage to absorb 90C, will it result in the storm intensifying? Or will it be detrimental to Pewa?

If I recall the previous instances, the answer to both questions was no.

[Kingarabian]

Wow. Two CPAC systems in a non El-Nino year?!

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Storm Pewa

[Yellow Evan]

]Might be having some Fujiwara goin' on with this and the possibly developing system to the ENE. The big one in all likelihood will swallow up the little one.

Reminds me of Alika and Ele in 2002.

There were two in 1990 like this as well in the E. Pac; I think one of them was named Hernan. I have the satellite loop on file somewhere.

Hernan and Iselle.

[Yellow Evan]

Wow. Two CPAC systems in a non El-Nino year?!

Ever heard of 2000 PHS? It had 2 storms form in the AOR and Daniel almost hit Hawaii

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Hope this does not end like PAKA!

[hurricanes1234]

Up to 45 knots!

CP, 01, 2013081700, , BEST, 0, 99N, 1749W, 45, 1004, TS,

[Meow]

Hope this does not end like PAKA!

But Paka was super powerful.

[beoumont]

]Might be having some Fujiwara goin' on with this and the possibly developing system to the ENE. The big one in all likelihood will swallow up the little one.

Reminds me of Alika and Ele in 2002.

There were two in 1990 like this as well in the E. Pac; I think one of them was named Hernan. I have the satellite loop on file somewhere.

Hernan and Iselle.

Now it appears there might be a third circulation forming near 158 and 13. No telling what is going to happen. Should be interesting to watch. If there are three interacting will it be a Fujiwoogiwara? Fujiguadalajara?

The current Water Vapor loop gives the appearance that all three are under one elongated E-W upper ridge. Below, is a visible shot, of course.

[Kingarabian]

To be clear, not only are future conditions hostile for Pewa (JMA), but Tropical Storm Pewa is already under hostile conditions... The CPHC.