WPAC: Tropical Storm Trami (12W) (Maring PAGASA)

[Hurricane_Luis]

I'm going with 98W, JMA has a depression and now the JTWC has issued a TCFA.

99W has the same conditions.

They might be upgraded to tropical storms at the same time.

[Meow]

JTWC estimates 12W will be a typhoon and very close to 13W.



WTPN32 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WARNING WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161951ZAUG13//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 21.3N 124.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 124.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 21.0N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 21.3N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 21.8N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.8N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 24.0N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 25.1N 125.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 25.8N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 124.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 361 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
170000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND
180300Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 161951Z AUG 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 162000). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13W (THIRTEEN)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WTPN32 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 20.6N 125.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 125.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 20.3N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.7N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 21.4N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 22.2N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 23.4N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 24.6N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 25.5N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 125.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 382 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
170600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND
180900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


WDPN32 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 382 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING, YET SLIGHTLY ELONGATED, LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION
AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS
ALSO EVIDENT IN A 170332Z TRMM 37GHZ MICROWAVE. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE MSI AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR TO
LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 30 KNOTS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES DUE TO THE
CONSOLIDATING STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
AXIS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (05 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TD
12W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TD 12W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING RIDGE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36 THE STEERING
INFLUENCES WILL BECOME WEAK AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN
TWO STEERING RIDGES, THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND A
BUILDING RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 48, THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND ALONG WITH MOTION INDUCED BY DIRECT
CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) WITH NEIGHBORING TD 13W, SHOULD DRIVE THE
SYSTEM WEST. TD 12W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH, THE
PROXIMITY AND INTENSITY OF TD 13W COULD CREATE A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A LOWER INTENSITY FORECAST.
C. TD 12W IS EXPECTED CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH TD 13W IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS, AND EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO EACH OTHER BY TAU 120. SLOW
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THESE TWO SYSTEMS
CONSOLIDATE AND REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SPREAD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF TD 13W, AND THE DCI, AS TWO DIFFERENT SCENARIOS HAVE BECOME
CLEAR. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CONTINUED DCI WHILE SOME
SEEM TO INDICATE THAT TD 12W WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION IN
THIS SCENARIO AND CALL FOR TD 13W TO WEAKEN AS TD 12W CREATES AN
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST DUE TO THIS.//
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

I made a update on this storm and its sister to the north. Really quite interesting. What will happen!?

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHd1nl6Bt3c[/youtube]

[vrif]

JTWC track with 13W overlaid.


edit: 13W is up to 96 hour forecast, and 12W is up to 120 hour forecast

[vrif]

OSCAT pass

[vrif]

Upgraded to TS TRAMI

WTPQ20 RJTD 180000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1312 TRAMI (1312) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180000UTC 20.5N 127.3E FAIR
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 190000UTC 20.7N 128.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 200000UTC 22.6N 127.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 210000UTC 24.0N 123.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

[jaguarjace]

JMA track of Trami

[vrif]

Here is the prognostic reasoning

WTPQ30 RJTD 180000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 1312 TRAMI (1312)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 180000 UTC IS FAIR.
TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TS WILL RECURVE WITHIN 24 HOURS FROM 180000 UTC.
TS WILL MOVE EAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH-NORTHWEST.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

[vrif]

JTWC forecasts TRAMI will be up to 60 knots

[Typhoon Hunter]

HKO much more bullish on intensity, also tracking close to N Taiwan:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

19th August 0800HKT Severe Tropical Storm 90km/h
20th August 0800HKT Typhoon 120km/h
21st August 0800HKT Typhoon 130km/h

[phwxenthusiast]

looks like convection is starting to rebuild over the LLCC; maybe that shear is starting to relax...

[mrbagyo]

looks like convection is starting to rebuild over the LLCC; maybe that shear is starting to relax...

yeah.. but the same can't be said for 13W.. now i'm wondering if we'll still have a Fujiwara...

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 373 NM
SOUTHWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ON
THE EASTERN EDGE OF IMPROVING DEEP CONVECTION AS WELL AS A LARGE
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 172327Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE CLEARLY REVEALS THE LLCC JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE
EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND AGAIN SHOWS THE STRONG BANDING
FEATURE TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. ADDITIONALLY, A
180044Z ASCAT METOP-B IMAGE CONFIRMS THE INITIAL INTENSITY WITH 25
TO 30 KNOT WIND BARBS SURROUNDING A CLEARLY DEFINED LLCC. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW, NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, HAS LIMITED THE OUTFLOW AND
SLIGHTLY INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS)
LEVELS. TD 12W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TD 12W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STEERING RIDGE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 24, THE
STEERING INFLUENCES WILL WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE POSITIONED
BETWEEN TWO STEERING RIDGES, THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
AND A RIDGE BUILDING JUST NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 48, THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE AND SHOULD ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. TD 12W IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO FILL AND
CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS
THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TD 12W IS EXPECTED TO
REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 12W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THEN
BEGIN TO WEAKEN, DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
NORTHERN COAST OF TAIWAN AND THE EAST COAST OF CHINA THEREAFTER.
ALTHOUGH DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
CYCLONIC TURN BACK TO THE WEST, THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXTENT AND SPEED OF THE TURN. DUE TO THIS LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS,
THE FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Trami might eat up 13W....

[RobWESTPACWX]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vvK8kBzfzsY[/youtube]

My video update for today. Plus below warnings from JMA and JT. Im happy 13W is dead though. Good riddance on these two storms giving me a headache!

[vrif]

WTPQ20 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1312 TRAMI (1312)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180600UTC 20.5N 127.6E FAIR
MOVE E 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 190600UTC 21.2N 128.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 200600UTC 22.7N 127.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 210600UTC 24.1N 123.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


WTPQ30 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 1312 TRAMI (1312)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 180600 UTC IS FAIR.
TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TS WILL RECURVE WITHIN 24 HOURS FROM 180600 UTC.
TS WILL MOVE EAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH-NORTHWEST.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

[vrif]

OSCAT pass

[mrbagyo]

TRAMI keeps pullin' those monsoon rains... MANILA is now under RED RAINFALL WARNING...


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[euro6208]

this is such a large monsoon type system, i won't be surprised if something else develops from it's outer periphery...