Tropical Wave just off African Coast (Is Invest 94L)

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Really nice rotation and increasing its thunderstorm activity as it prepares to emerge from Africa
http://tropicaltidbits.com/satellite/images/eatl_ir.gif

[somethingfunny]

Saved image at 14:00 UTC. Notice the big circulation around 10.5N just behind the convection.

http://oi40.tinypic.com/2ekkxl0.jpg

Is that circulation surface-based or upper-level? Seems like an odd location, I'm also noticing the image is from early afternoon in West Africa and it's just firing up two or three individual thunderstorms.

[cycloneye]

Saved image at 14:00 UTC. Notice the big circulation around 10.5N just behind the convection.

http://oi40.tinypic.com/2ekkxl0.jpg

Is that circulation surface-based or upper-level? Seems like an odd location, I'm also noticing the image is from early afternoon in West Africa and it's just firing up two or three individual thunderstorms.

Here is the saved image at 21:00 UTC. Notice the circulation is filled with convection.

[somethingfunny]

The area emerging off the coast now is definitely a broad rotation though perhaps not closed off. Its' convection seems to be waning as it emerges, as more convection (maybe diurnal) blossoms on the second circulation, in southern Mali. It will be interesting to see how these competing circulations interact; any tropical development would likely be slow.

[cycloneye]

This system ends up near Bermuda on the 18z GFS. What is down there is another story.

[SFLcane]

Large impressive wave..good bet for out next named storm in a few days.

[TheStormExpert]

The big question is will it stay far enough south and continue on a westward track a some time to be able to avoid to cooler SST's and stable air, or will it take a very similar track as Erin and head WNW right into the cooler SST's and stable air? If it develops quickly like Erin did I would assume it would take the same kind of track as Erin.

[TheStormExpert]

Large impressive wave..good bet for out next named storm in a few days.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/satellit ... atl_ir.gif

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/satellit ... tl_vis.gif

Wow! What a big circulation, could this help it fight off some of the unfavorable conditions like stable air in it's life?

[Gustywind]

That's a very strong circulation! Very interresting to see how this disturbed weather reacts once it come entirely offshore...

[cycloneye]

Important to note that this system is 3-4 degrees more south in latitude than the wave that spawned Erin emerged.

[alienstorm]

The main one is the one to the southeast, could make argument for a TD already. GFS is taking it to the west and then Northwest out to sea.

[TheStormExpert]

I thought I heard on here several times before that the GFS tends to underestimate ridging?

[HurricaneDREW92]

Latest:


Looks to be good for code yellow @ 8am.

[ninel conde]

it will have alot of dry air issues behind erin.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... vmid&time=

[cycloneye]

It has been designated pouch 23L by the investigation group.

P23L
10N, 6W
700 hPa


ECMWF: Very distinct pouch for the first day while over west Africa. As P23L leaves Africa, it becomes elongated SW-NE in the monsoonal fashion, with the northeastern end eventually becoming the dominant portion and depicted as a distinct pouch again at 84 hours.

GFS: Distinct pouch the entire five days. Tracks a bit north of west, but not as much as ECMWF. GFS does not show as much SW-NE monsoonal elongation as in ECMWF; however, the pouch center is erratic on Days 4-5.

UKMET: Distinct, smooth track. Faster than EMCWF and GFS. Also gains latitude.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013/P23L.html

[HurricaneDREW92]

Wouldn't it be East Atlantic, now

CMC shows interesting scenario for this wave



But then again, it's the CMC

[Gustywind]

Wouldn't it be East Atlantic, now

CMC shows interesting scenario for this wave



But then again, it's the CMC

Yeah, surely an optimistic scenario on this run. Given its location much souther than the previous one, it's always suspcious. Plenty of time to watch it , wait and see.

[Hurricaneman]

Wouldn't it be East Atlantic, now

CMC shows interesting scenario for this wave

http://imageshack.us/a/img15/2724/kth8.jpg

But then again, it's the CMC

Yeah, surely an optimistic scenario on this run. Given its location much souther than the previous one, it's always suspcious. Plenty of time to watch it , wait and see.

The GFS has almost been just as robust so it does bear watching in the long run


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[HurricaneDREW92]

Wouldn't it be East Atlantic, now

CMC shows interesting scenario for this wave

http://imageshack.us/a/img15/2724/kth8.jpg

But then again, it's the CMC

Yeah, surely an optimistic scenario on this run. Given its location much souther than the previous one, it's always suspcious. Plenty of time to watch it , wait and see.

The GFS has almost been just as robust so it does bear watching in the long run


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Far too early out but this reminds me of Irene in 2011. The date And potential track. Disclaimer below.

[cycloneye]

Introduced as a wave with low pressure (South of 10N) at 18z analysis.