WPAC: PEWA - Tropical Storm

[Yellow Evan]

Hope this does not end like PAKA!

But Paka was super powerful.

GFDL is on drugs. But you get this with every dateline storm. See also: Ioke 06.

Now a look the rest of the guidance:




Not as bad here.

[Yellow Evan]

To be clear, not only are future conditions hostile for Pewa (JMA), but Tropical Storm Pewa is already under hostile conditions... The CPHC.

the JMA is light years better than the CPHC. However, the JMA is a bit like the EPHC - it's Dvorak scale is screwed.

[Yellow Evan]

Now it appears there might be a third circulation forming near 158 and 13. No telling what is going to happen. Should be interesting to watch. If there are three interacting will it be a Fujiwoogiwara? Fujiguadalajara?

That's a 92E. It's always been there. Currently at near 0%.

[Meow]

the JMA is light years better than the CPHC. However, the JMA is a bit like the EPHC - it's Dvorak scale is screwed.

JMA’s scale is good. It does not make Megi 903 hPa.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Hope this does not end like PAKA!

But Paka was super powerful.

Paka took about a week to reach Cat 1 status and was a very disorganized system in the Central Pacific.

[Meow]

Paka took about a week to reach Cat 1 status and was a very disorganized system in the Central Pacific.

So Pewa may also reach peak intensity in the northwest Pacific. We should worry about JMA.

[Yellow Evan]

the JMA is light years better than the CPHC. However, the JMA is a bit like the EPHC - it's Dvorak scale is screwed.

JMA’s scale is good. It does not make Megi 903 hPa.

Well, the JMA is IMO better than PASAGA ill tell you that much. But my point is the JMA has issues with intense storms. I doubt Pewa will get that intense though.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

the JMA is light years better than the CPHC. However, the JMA is a bit like the EPHC - it's Dvorak scale is screwed.

JMA’s scale is good. It does not make Megi 903 hPa.

Well, the JMA is IMO better than PASAGA ill tell you that much. But my point is the JMA has issues with intense storms. I doubt Pewa will get that intense though.

Obviously, as a Filipino, PAGASA is very inaccurate and always underestimates storms. I can't rely on it anymore.

[Yellow Evan]

[Meow]

JMA is so excited.



WWJP25 RJTD 170000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 170000.
WARNING VALID 180000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
EXPECTED NORTHERLY WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 15N 175E 17N 180E 07N 180E 09N 175E 15N 175E
FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
...
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM PEWA : SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING (WTPA24 PHFO).

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PEWA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012013
500 PM HST FRI AUG 16 2013

EARLIER TODAY...PEWA HAD A RATHER IMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION HAS DEGRADED SOMEWHAT AND THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BECOME RAGGED. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE A
CONSENSUS 2.5...A 2040 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED WHAT APPEAR TO BE
RELIABLE 40-45 KT WINDS TO THE NE AND E OF THE CENTER. THUS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING SET TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11. THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD WITH
TIME...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP PEWA ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED NORTH
A BIT WITH THIS CYCLE AND THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE CHALLENGING. IN THE SHORT TERM...
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. PEWA
IS OVER WARM SSTS OF 28C AND WEAK SHEAR...WITH INCREASINGLY WARM
WATER AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE ENTIRE FORECAST PATH.
HOWEVER...AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS...PEWA WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE
EFFECTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 23N 173E. INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED OVER THE SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD HALT
INTENSIFICATION...THEN INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING. HOW MUCH WEAKENING
WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 10.1N 175.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 10.5N 176.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 11.6N 179.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 12.4N 178.4E 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 13.4N 175.9E 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 15.0N 171.0E 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 17.0N 166.5E 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 20.0N 162.0E 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

[Yellow Evan]

IMO the CPHC is too gradual with weakening.

[beoumont]

50 mph on latest advisiory with satellite showing what appears to be an eyewall developing?

[jaguarjace]

Afternoon thunderstorm towers popping up in Pewa.

[supercane4867]

GFDL is on drugs. But you get this with every dateline storm. See also: Ioke 06.

This is what GFDL had for Ioke back in 2006

[mrbagyo]

trmm pass...

[Yellow Evan]

GFDL is on drugs. But you get this with every dateline storm. See also: Ioke 06.

This is what GFDL had for Ioke back in 2006

That was initialized incorrectly.

[Yellow Evan]

50 mph on latest advisiory with satellite showing what appears to be an eyewall developing?

I'd go with 55 knts.

Here is my forecast
Now 55 knts
12hr 60 knts
24hr 65 knts
36hr 75 knts
48hr 65 knts
72hr 35 knts
96hr toast

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

50 mph on latest advisiory with satellite showing what appears to be an eyewall developing?

I'd go with 55 knts.

Here is my forecast
Now 55 knts
12hr 60 knts
24hr 65 knts
36hr 75 knts
48hr 65 knts
72hr 35 knts
96hr toast

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Why do you forecast this to rapidly weaken? I'd say its peak intensity would be 85 kts.

[Yellow Evan]

50 mph on latest advisiory with satellite showing what appears to be an eyewall developing?

I'd go with 55 knts.

Here is my forecast
Now 55 knts
12hr 60 knts
24hr 65 knts
36hr 75 knts
48hr 65 knts
72hr 35 knts
96hr toast

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Why do you forecast this to rapidly weaken? I'd say its peak intensity would be 85 kts.

Increased shear, though it's partially me being use to EPAC storms weakening rapidly.