ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[wxman57]

TD soon anybody?

Not in the Gulf of Mexico.

[HurriGuy]

Still hoping for rain here in LA

[gatorcane]

Lots of dry stable air across the Western Gulf, Mexico, and Texas. Our system looks more like a frontal boundary now as some have mentioned. Not looking like we are going into late August out across the GOM today.

[jaguarjace]

Saved WV loop of the GOM

[northjaxpro]

This is just an elongated, sheared mess in the Gulf of Mexico. I am believer of never say never in the tropics. However, I don't see anything developing out of this folks. Just a soaking rain event for portions of the Northern Gulf Coast.

[HouTXmetro]

Now we see why the models split the energy. The ULL is still Evident and Vis Satellite still shows the LLC buried in the BOC. Convection is also increasing around our old naked swirl so this should be interesting.

[ROCK]

yes it looks frontal as I said last night it doesnt look tropical.....however the LLC has now formed convection that is being pulled off to the NE. That naked LLC is the main LLC of 92L. No evidence of another one forming more to the NE.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _early.png


guidance still thinking 92L will go into MX or STX....heres hoping for STX.....

[HurriGuy]

I live in Southeastern La and while we are looking good on drought monitor, the rain has not been as frequent lately. Ponds are getting low. This big plunge of dry air...will the jet stream keep this from totally invading the GOM and lift back up eventually? I see our rain chances have gone up nicely for the next 2 days.

[wxman57]

No more LLC that I can find.

['CaneFreak]

Nothing to see here. Time to move on to the next one. Unless a piece of energy breaks off from the trough as the trough lifts out, this thing is not going to develop. I think chances for TC formation in the next 48 hours will be reduced down to 20 % or even 10 % at 2 pm and in 5 days maybe 20 or 30 % tops.

[stormy70]

I am in south Alabama across from Mobile and it has been raining since last night. I took my child to cross country practice this morning at the high school at 5:45am and the roads were starting to flood a bit. I have been out since we got home at 8:30 but it is still raining.

[Dean4Storms]

There is some lower level clouds streaming into convection up around 26N 90.5W, could be the 850mb Vort the GFS has been advertising heading for MS/AL border. Look just to the left of the convection at the lower level clouds moving counterclockwise from NW curling in. Not saying this is an LLC, but an area of vorticity maybe that needs monitoring. Buoy to the east has South winds with gusts up to 30kts.

Maybe more like 26N 91W

Also much better look from the NASA high resolution satellite look at 1km.

[HurriGuy]

There is some lower level clouds streaming into convection up around 26N 90.5W, could be the 850mb Vort the GFS has been advertising heading for MS/AL border. Look just to the left of the convection at the lower level clouds moving counterclockwise from NW curling in. Not saying this is an LLC, but an area of vorticity maybe that needs monitoring. Buoy to the east has South winds with gusts up to 30kts.

Maybe more like 26N 91W

Also much better look from the NASA high resolution satellite look at 1km.

Can you post a link?

[Dean4Storms]

Look at this.... North wind at 56kts??? To the north of where I pointed out!

Holy Chit!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42362

[Dean4Storms]

My first thought is that this has to be a bad reading, but I don't know.

[Dean4Storms]

A wake low maybe?

['CaneFreak]

Bogus reading. Look at the observation before that. Must have got hit by a wave or something and just came back on.

Look at this.... North wind at 56kts??? To the north of where I pointed out!

Holy Chit!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42362

[Dean4Storms]

Yep, see that now. It just updated at 11:30am with no wind speed reading. Wonder if it was hit by lightning or something. Strange one!

['CaneFreak]

Lightning? Wow. Never thought of that one. Good idea.

Yep, see that now. It just updated at 11:30am with no wind speed reading. Wonder if it was hit by lightning or something. Strange one!

[Dean4Storms]

Check this buoy pressure and winds last few hours....


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42360