xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Actually, Pewa is currently at 179.5W. So does that mean they'll issue it earlier?
CPHC has issued the last advisory, so JMA must issue the first warning at 06Z.
WTPA44 PHFO 180230
TCDCP4
TROPICAL STORM PEWA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012013
500 PM HST SAT AUG 17 2013
AFTER A BURST OF ORGANIZATION EARLIER TODAY...THE DEEP CONVECTION
AROUND PEWA HAS ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE RAGGED THIS AFTERNOON...AND
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME CONSTRICTED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF
THE STORM. THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE ONCE AGAIN
3.5 ACROSS THE BOARD...SO THE INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 55 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/11. THE GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED AROUND A FORECAST TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AS PEWA
REMAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL HIGH THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME MIXED SIGNALS THAT MAKE THE INTENSITY
FORECAST QUITE CHALLENGING. THE CIMSS ANALYSES INDICATE THAT PEWA IS
STARTING TO FEEL INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FROM THE UPPER
LOW DROPPING SOUTH NEAR 20N 174E. THERE IS PROBABLY ALSO SOME
INTERACTION OCCURING WITH THE DISTURBANCE A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE
NORTHEAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CYCLONE IS NOW ENTERING A VAST
AREA OF HIGHER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND WARMER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...REACHING 29.5C ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING THAT IN ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO...THE UPPER LOW WILL
START TO WEAKEN AND PULL NORTHWESTWARD...BUT NOT FAST ENOUGH TO
RELIEVE THE SYSTEM FROM INCREASING SHEAR. THUS...ANY INTENSIFICATION
SHOULD BE GRADUAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE IT HALTS. THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY INTENSIFICATION COULD RESUME IN THE LONGER RANGE
IF PEWA CAN OVERCOME THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES AWAY FAR ENOUGH FOR ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO BUILD OVER THE
SYSTEM...AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS AND NAVGEM. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE
STUBBORN WITH THE UPPER LOW IN PEWA/S PATH...WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY
BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.
PEWA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE BY 06Z...
AND THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER. THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY THE RSMC
TOKYO. FOR U.S. INTERESTS...SEE THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE
U.S. NWS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE GUAM AND DOD WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0300Z 11.8N 179.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 12.8N 178.8E 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 13.9N 176.7E 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 15.2N 174.6E 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 16.5N 172.2E 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 19.3N 168.0E 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 21.9N 163.8E 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 24.9N 159.3E 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD
