WPAC: Tropical Storm Trami (12W) (Maring PAGASA)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Trami (12W) (Maring PAGASA)
WTPN32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 20.2N 127.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 127.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.6N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.7N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.0N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 24.0N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 25.4N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 26.0N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 26.4N 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 127.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 378 NM SOUTHWARD
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 01C (PEWA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Trami (12W) (Maring PAGASA)
what is this??? an eye? dry slot ? or something...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Trami (12W) (Maring PAGASA)
seems like an eye...rapid intensification going on???
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
And the NESDIS/SSD guys
TXPQ27 KNES 181525
TCSWNP
A. 12W (TRAMI)
B. 18/1432Z
C. 19.9N
D. 127.4E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A CENTRAL COLD COVER (CCC) WHICH
DOES NOT ALLOW FOR A DT. PT=2.5. MET=2.5. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN POSITION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SCHWARTZ
Different pattern, same result.
TXPQ27 KNES 181525
TCSWNP
A. 12W (TRAMI)
B. 18/1432Z
C. 19.9N
D. 127.4E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A CENTRAL COLD COVER (CCC) WHICH
DOES NOT ALLOW FOR A DT. PT=2.5. MET=2.5. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN POSITION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SCHWARTZ
Different pattern, same result.
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- mrbagyo
- Category 5
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Trami (12W) (Maring PAGASA)
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
WTPQ20 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1312 TRAMI (1312)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181800UTC 20.5N 127.8E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 191800UTC 22.5N 128.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 201800UTC 24.8N 125.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 211800UTC 25.9N 119.9E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1312 TRAMI (1312)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181800UTC 20.5N 127.8E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 191800UTC 22.5N 128.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 201800UTC 24.8N 125.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 211800UTC 25.9N 119.9E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Trami (12W) (Maring PAGASA)
JTWC's 21Z track and prog.
WDPN32 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (TRAMI) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 402 NM
SOUTHWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN EXPANDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS. A RECENT 181455Z OSCAT PASS
INDICATES THE LLCC HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWARD IN A RELATIVELY POOR
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD RANGE FROM
35 TO 45 KNOTS, WITH THE CURRENT INTENSITY SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE
AT 40 KNOTS, AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OSCAT
PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
REMAINS VIGOROUS, WITH A TUTT CELL DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST OF TS
12W STARTING TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR REMAINS AT MODERATE LEVELS (15 TO 20 KNOTS) FROM THE NORTH BUT
HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF DECREASING IN THE PAST THREE HOURS AS THE TUTT
CELL TRACKS WESTWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TS 12W IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST OF
TS 12W. BY TAU 24 A BUILDING STR TO THE NORTH WILL DOMINATE THE
STEERING PATTERN, TURNING THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. IMPROVING UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALLOW FOR THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO 75 KNOTS BY
TAU 72. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE SOME LAND INFLUENCE WITH TAIWAN AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLAND AROUND TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 12W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTH. THE INTENSITY
WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL WITH CHINA AROUND TAU
84. ALTHOUGH DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
CYCLONIC TURN BACK TO THE WEST, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT AND SPEED OF THE TURN AS THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. DUE TO THIS LARGE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS, THE FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
12Z model track
WDPN32 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (TRAMI) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 402 NM
SOUTHWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN EXPANDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS. A RECENT 181455Z OSCAT PASS
INDICATES THE LLCC HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWARD IN A RELATIVELY POOR
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD RANGE FROM
35 TO 45 KNOTS, WITH THE CURRENT INTENSITY SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE
AT 40 KNOTS, AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OSCAT
PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
REMAINS VIGOROUS, WITH A TUTT CELL DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST OF TS
12W STARTING TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR REMAINS AT MODERATE LEVELS (15 TO 20 KNOTS) FROM THE NORTH BUT
HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF DECREASING IN THE PAST THREE HOURS AS THE TUTT
CELL TRACKS WESTWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TS 12W IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST OF
TS 12W. BY TAU 24 A BUILDING STR TO THE NORTH WILL DOMINATE THE
STEERING PATTERN, TURNING THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. IMPROVING UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALLOW FOR THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO 75 KNOTS BY
TAU 72. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE SOME LAND INFLUENCE WITH TAIWAN AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLAND AROUND TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 12W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTH. THE INTENSITY
WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL WITH CHINA AROUND TAU
84. ALTHOUGH DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
CYCLONIC TURN BACK TO THE WEST, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT AND SPEED OF THE TURN AS THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. DUE TO THIS LARGE
SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS, THE FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
12Z model track
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Re:
Alyono wrote:where did you get that EC ensemble map from. That, I believe, is only available on the pay site. Or is there another source for the information?
It is on NOAA's site. http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.php
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Trami (12W) (Maring PAGASA)
An eye is perhaps forming?
edit: First VIS of the day
edit: First VIS of the day
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WTPQ20 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1312 TRAMI (1312)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 20.1N 128.0E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 200000UTC 22.7N 128.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 210000UTC 24.9N 124.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 220000UTC 26.0N 119.1E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Trami (12W) (Maring PAGASA)
JTWC's 3Z track and intensity
Is it logically possible to further intensify after entering the Taiwan Strait
Is it logically possible to further intensify after entering the Taiwan Strait
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Storm Trami (12W) (Maring PAGASA)
That would suggest it would peak above 75kts between 21/00z and 22/00z prior to making landfall on Taiwan and have weakened to 75kts whilst hitting China. That's how I interpret that map.
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WTPQ20 RJTD 190300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1312 TRAMI (1312)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190300UTC 19.7N 128.1E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 200300UTC 22.4N 127.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 210000UTC 24.9N 124.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 220000UTC 26.0N 119.1E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1312 TRAMI (1312)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190300UTC 19.7N 128.1E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 200300UTC 22.4N 127.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 210000UTC 24.9N 124.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 220000UTC 26.0N 119.1E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =
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WTPQ20 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1312 TRAMI (1312)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190600UTC 19.7N 128.1E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 200600UTC 22.7N 126.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 210600UTC 25.0N 123.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 220600UTC 26.5N 118.1E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1312 TRAMI (1312)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190600UTC 19.7N 128.1E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 200600UTC 22.7N 126.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 210600UTC 25.0N 123.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 220600UTC 26.5N 118.1E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =
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- senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 42
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
Tropical Storm Trami (Philippines name Maring) is now beginning to track north-northeast as it transitions from a eastward moving cyclone to a westward moving cyclone. Meanwhile, Trami is enhancing the Southwest Monsoon, bring heavy rainfall and flooding throughout portions of Luzon. Media reports from the Philippines are indicating at least three deaths have occurred from the cyclone as well as several injuries, mainly due to vehicular accidents. As Trami moves away from the Philippines, it would threaten the Miyako and Yaeyama Islands as possibly a severe tropical storm before threatening Taipei, potentially as a typhoon. Atmospheric conditions favor slow strengthening, but the models lose confidence as it approaches Taiwan–this may be significant as the strongest winds are expected to be on the north side of Trami. A slight shift toward the north would save Taipei from a landfall and typhoon-force winds. By Thursday, however, Trami should make landfall Fujian or Zhejiang province in eastern China.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7-vk9Gw_p8[/youtube]
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7-vk9Gw_p8[/youtube]
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