ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

I see three possible scenarios:

1) The dry air just comes in, rushes in and devours the system before it has a chance to develop. Any deviation north in the track or significant slowdown would lead to such.

2) 94L develops rapidly and closes off an LLC in the short term. However, that would likely circulate more dry air into the storm and also result in a more poleward track quickly like Erin to a quick demise in the SAL.

3) The system stays low (near 10N) and remains basically what it is now for the next 48 hours. Beyond 40W lies a more conducive air mass, and it would have a chance at sustained development then.

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[Gustywind]

Anybody notice that?
Curiously... no appearence of 94 L on SSD positions? Matter of time? Maybe my eyes are deceving me?

[Gustywind]

New Tropical Wave in the Eastern Atlantic
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-v ... 1683763362

August 18, 2013; 5:44 PM
Erin weakened on Sunday, however a new tropical wave has moved into the eastern Atlantic and will produce showers around the Cape Verde islands Sunday night into Monday.

[northjaxpro]

I see three possible scenarios:

1) The dry air just comes in, rushes in and devours the system before it has a chance to develop. Any deviation north in the track or significant slowdown would lead to such.

2) 94L develops rapidly and closes off an LLC in the short term. However, that would likely circulate more dry air into the storm and also result in a more poleward track quickly like Erin to a quick demise in the SAL.

3) The system stays low (near 10N) and remains basically what it is now for the next 48 hours. Beyond 40W lies a more conducive air mass, and it would have a chance at sustained development then.

.

That is a pretty good assessment of the situation with 94L. There is sill a lot of dry and stable air just north of the system, and if I was a betting man, I would take your #2 scenario to unfold. This has been happening all season long to this point, and I don't foresee any immediate changes with this sitution within the next 3-4 days.

94L may help to finally scour out the dry and stable air mass at the very least though for the other waves coming off Africa within the next week or so.

[LaBreeze]

Another fish possibly?

[ninel conde]

it looks like it dried up in the last few hours

[abajan]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 19 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED BETWEEN THE
WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DIMINISHED
EARLY TONIGHT. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ...

Formation potential diminishing with each successive outlook.
Man, what on earth is going on with the Atlantic? Is it really August 19th or July 19th?

[ninel conde]

besides the dry air killing 94L there is a strong upper low south of the azores that is a huge roadblock to any wave.

[Gustywind]

8 AM Discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N26W TO A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 14N27W
TO 20N24W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BROAD 700 MB TROUGH S OF 17N BETWEEN 15W-32W AND IS LOCATED
WITHIN A BROAD LOW-LEVEL MONSOONAL GYRE FROM 07N-20N BETWEEN 20W-
37W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS
TIME.

[cycloneye]

No more mention.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 19 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[floridasun78]

nhc kill that invest

[cycloneye]

And then the ultimate dagger.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al942013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201308191132
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

[Gustywind]

A bit surprising, is the SAL is always deep, hindering for the moment the conditions for this twave? Maybe there's others factors but that's amazing to see this morning .
Let's wait and see how this twave reacts as it moves further west.

[ninel conde]

8 AM Discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N26W TO A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 14N27W
TO 20N24W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BROAD 700 MB TROUGH S OF 17N BETWEEN 15W-32W AND IS LOCATED
WITHIN A BROAD LOW-LEVEL MONSOONAL GYRE FROM 07N-20N BETWEEN 20W-
37W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS
TIME.

NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS
TIME.

story of the season.

[Gustywind]

Off topic, looks like another of SAL episode is in vicinity of this twave and expanding west meaning ( maybe )why NHC has back off the probalities?. So not very favorable conditions ahead of ex 94L...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... plitE&time

[Riptide]

Outrageous (considering forecasts), about time to close the books on a busy season and hope for something more moderate.

[wxman57]

This one was dead when it was started. Perhaps they were just running some tests.

[Gustywind]

Update

Michael Lowry, Hurricane Specialist, The Weather Channel

Aug 19, 2013 5:39 am ET

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

- No organized tropical systems in the Atlantic

- Tropical disturbance off Africa (Invest 94-L) facing adverse conditions ahead

Atlantic Basin

Otherwise, it's lights out on Erin in the eastern Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center issued its last forecast on Erin earlier today as very dry air extinguished the few remaining storms over Erin's center.


A new disturbance that recently emerged from the coast of Africa (Invest 94-L) is facing similar prospects as dry air and strong northeasterly winds keep development odds low.


Elsewhere, there are no signs of tropical development across the Atlantic for at last the next few days.

[Gustywind]

8 PM Discussion.


A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N25W TO 16N28W TO 08N29W MOVING W
AT 15 KT. A 1007 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
12N29W. THE WAVE IS LOCATED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A AN AREA OF
MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS NOTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE
AT THIS TIME.