EPAC: IVO - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep942013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201308190029
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 94, 2013, DB, O, 2013081900, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP942013
EP, 94, 2013081900, , BEST, 0, 120N, 1040W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

Thread that was the topic for this area at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115461&hilit=&p=2332687#p2332687

[Yellow Evan]

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.

[hurricanes1234]

Are there any models that support major hurricane status?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Not major cane but GFS makes it a hurricane and tracks close to Baja California.

[Cyclenall]

Are there any models that support major hurricane status?

The phrases "Major Hurricane" and "2013" go together like oil and water. I don't expect any for a long time.

[supercane4867]

00Z GFS has Ivo southwest of Baja by 96HRs



Edit:Fix for mistake

[cycloneye]

Fishing time -.-

http://i.imgur.com/BIOwjpc.png

That is for the first 94E cycle system in June (See timestamp) The present 94E still has no models as ATCF has not made an update.

[Yellow Evan]

Fishing time -.-



That is for the first 94E cycle system in June (See timestamp) The present 94E still has no models as ATCF has not made an update.

That's Cosme

It's not gonna go out to sea IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

Are there any models that support major hurricane status?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

CMC did briefly IIRC. Don't think I ever mentioned it.

[Yellow Evan]

Formation of Ivo



Solid



Near BCS.



Not as close as past runs.



gone

[cycloneye]

11 PM PDT TWO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
HAVE INCREASED A LITTLE THIS EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.

[hurricanes1234]

When are they releasing the floater?

[Hurricane_Luis]

When are they releasing the floater?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/94E/94E_floater.html

[tolakram]

Euro has this close to the coast in 144 hours.

[Yellow Evan]

Ivo merging with an invest (likely eventually gonna be called 95E)



Drawing up moisture right into NV.

[Yellow Evan]

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD.

[CrazyC83]

The EPAC looks to be ready to go into overdrive. Heck, even ex-94L could be a player down the road in this basin. I wouldn't be surprised to see 3 or 4 named storms here in the next couple weeks.

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND
THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.

[Yellow Evan]

The EPAC looks to be ready to go into overdrive. Heck, even ex-94L could be a player down the road in this basin. I wouldn't be surprised to see 3 or 4 named storms here in the next couple weeks.

I think 2 sounds right. Maybe 3. Chance it could only be 1 IMO, chance we could get 4.

[cycloneye]

5 PM PDT.


A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.