Convection off SW FL

[ScottNAtlanta]

Been noticing a blow up of convection off SW FL. There looked like there was some spin prior to the blow up. Pressures are high in the area but there was a sharp wind change (NE to SE) when the center passed. Any thoughts?

[TexWx]

I've been watching this for a bit also....
It appears to be truckin' though.

[JGrin87]

I was starting to wonder why this was not being discussed. Convection has grown rapidly and looks impressive.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Not sure if the spin I saw earlier moved with the convection or just died out, but there is very little shear in that area of the gulf.
Key West long rage radar still has some of it

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

[tropicwatch]

Not really seeing anything that would indicate a surface low yet. Although it is an impressive area of showers.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg

[wxman57]

It's the time of year when such blobs need monitoring. None of the models develops it, and they're probably correct. But we don't know how it was initialized by the models. Nothing else to watch out there...

[gatorcane]

I think it is some convection firing along the northern part of a wave axis that was passing through Cuba and FL Straits yesterday.

[Dean4Storms]

Need to keep an eye on this overnight, if the convection persists we might have something brewing.

[Sanibel]

Could spin up, could poof from the same hostile conditions that crushed 92L.


Does appear to be a flare-up on a weak wave and moving too quickly to develop - but the season is ripe so who knows...

[CrazyC83]

These homebrew storms seem to have been my thinking all along the next week or so for anything; a frontal boundary right off the east coast is often a tropical trigger.

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

Yeah! OH YESH. This might become fernand gabby or humberto by next week but I don't want a landfall!

[Stormcenter]

It's worth watching. IMO

[Tireman4]

Nothing else to watch.

[JGrin87]

Novice question/observation confirmation - On the edges of the convection, I see, what appears to me to be, outflow. Is my observation correct? If so, what positive effective does outflow have on system formation?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rgb.html

[otowntiger]

I've been watching this for a bit also....
It appears to be truckin' though.

which direction is it truckin'?

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like convergence and divergence are increasing. There is also 850 vorticity showing up on the CIMSS analysis that wasnt there when I originally posted

[gatorcane]

Here is the 850MB (low-level) vorticity map showing some vorticity with this area:

[JGrin87]

Here is the 850MB (low-level) vorticity map showing some vorticity with this area:

what does vorticity suggest? I'm sorry, I'm new to this.

[USTropics]

Here is the 850MB (low-level) vorticity map showing some vorticity with this area:

what does vorticity suggest? I'm sorry, I'm new to this.

It essentially means the amount of potential 'spin'. In this case, 850mb would be the low level vorticity.

[HurricaneDREW92]

What will we see at the 8pm TWO? Perhaps 0%?