Convection off SW FL

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ScottNAtlanta
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Convection off SW FL

#1 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Mon Aug 19, 2013 2:03 pm

Been noticing a blow up of convection off SW FL. There looked like there was some spin prior to the blow up. Pressures are high in the area but there was a sharp wind change (NE to SE) when the center passed. Any thoughts?
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Re: Convection off SW FL

#2 Postby TexWx » Mon Aug 19, 2013 2:06 pm

I've been watching this for a bit also....
It appears to be truckin' though.
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#3 Postby JGrin87 » Mon Aug 19, 2013 2:09 pm

I was starting to wonder why this was not being discussed. Convection has grown rapidly and looks impressive.
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Re: Convection off SW FL

#4 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Mon Aug 19, 2013 2:10 pm

Not sure if the spin I saw earlier moved with the convection or just died out, but there is very little shear in that area of the gulf.
Key West long rage radar still has some of it

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes
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#5 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Aug 19, 2013 2:26 pm

Not really seeing anything that would indicate a surface low yet. Although it is an impressive area of showers.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg
Last edited by tropicwatch on Mon Aug 19, 2013 2:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Convection off SW FL

#6 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 19, 2013 2:27 pm

It's the time of year when such blobs need monitoring. None of the models develops it, and they're probably correct. But we don't know how it was initialized by the models. Nothing else to watch out there...
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#7 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 19, 2013 2:29 pm

I think it is some convection firing along the northern part of a wave axis that was passing through Cuba and FL Straits yesterday.
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#8 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Aug 19, 2013 2:48 pm

Need to keep an eye on this overnight, if the convection persists we might have something brewing.
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Re: Convection off SW FL

#9 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 19, 2013 2:52 pm

Could spin up, could poof from the same hostile conditions that crushed 92L.


Does appear to be a flare-up on a weak wave and moving too quickly to develop - but the season is ripe so who knows...
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#10 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 19, 2013 3:08 pm

These homebrew storms seem to have been my thinking all along the next week or so for anything; a frontal boundary right off the east coast is often a tropical trigger.
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#11 Postby RainbowAppleJackDash » Mon Aug 19, 2013 3:10 pm

Yeah! OH YESH. This might become fernand gabby or humberto by next week :D but I don't want a landfall!
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#12 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Aug 19, 2013 3:27 pm

It's worth watching. IMO
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#13 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Aug 19, 2013 3:32 pm

Nothing else to watch. :)
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Re: Convection off SW FL

#14 Postby JGrin87 » Mon Aug 19, 2013 3:34 pm

Novice question/observation confirmation - On the edges of the convection, I see, what appears to me to be, outflow. Is my observation correct? If so, what positive effective does outflow have on system formation?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rgb.html
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Re: Convection off SW FL

#15 Postby otowntiger » Mon Aug 19, 2013 3:35 pm

TexWx wrote:I've been watching this for a bit also....
It appears to be truckin' though.
which direction is it truckin'?
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Re: Convection off SW FL

#16 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Mon Aug 19, 2013 3:42 pm

Looks like convergence and divergence are increasing. There is also 850 vorticity showing up on the CIMSS analysis that wasnt there when I originally posted
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#17 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 19, 2013 4:00 pm

Here is the 850MB (low-level) vorticity map showing some vorticity with this area:

Image
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Re:

#18 Postby JGrin87 » Mon Aug 19, 2013 4:23 pm

gatorcane wrote:Here is the 850MB (low-level) vorticity map showing some vorticity with this area:

Image


what does vorticity suggest? I'm sorry, I'm new to this.
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Re: Re:

#19 Postby USTropics » Mon Aug 19, 2013 4:34 pm

JGrin87 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Here is the 850MB (low-level) vorticity map showing some vorticity with this area:



what does vorticity suggest? I'm sorry, I'm new to this.


It essentially means the amount of potential 'spin'. In this case, 850mb would be the low level vorticity.
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Re: Convection off SW FL

#20 Postby HurricaneDREW92 » Mon Aug 19, 2013 5:43 pm

What will we see at the 8pm TWO? Perhaps 0%? :D
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