It's Late August, Will We See 13/8/3 By November 30th?
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Re: It's Late August, Will We See 13/8/3 By November 30th?
The Indian Ocean is cooler than normal which lowers the potential waves in Africa which eventually get to the Atlantic. I think that is also part of the equation besides the dry air in the Atlantic.
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ninel conde
Re: It's Late August, Will We See 13/8/3 By November 30th?
Hurricane_Luis wrote:Hurricane_Luis=20/7/4 )Final ACE:160
I doubt it, I'd Probably put it down to 9/2/1 ACE: 85
close to mine. i dropped to 9/2/0. i see no end to the dry air and no sign of a positive MJO. i dont know what CSU or bastardi are seeing. we need a huge pattern change. we need to see a huge cold front sweep this non stop rain off the east coast for good. my best analog year would be 1993 where the rain never ended in the central states.
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HurricaneDREW92
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Re: It's Late August, Will We See 13/8/3 By November 30th?
ninel conde wrote:Hurricane_Luis wrote:Hurricane_Luis=20/7/4 )Final ACE:160
I doubt it, I'd Probably put it down to 9/2/1 ACE: 85
close to mine. i dropped to 9/2/0. i see no end to the dry air and no sign of a positive MJO. i dont know what CSU or bastardi are seeing. we need a huge pattern change. we need to see a huge cold front sweep this non stop rain off the east coast for good. my best analog year would be 1993 where the rain never ended in the central states.
For me 13/3/2. We have until Novem 30, technically speaking
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Re: It's Late August, Will We See 13/8/3 By November 30th?
I don't see any numbers like that at all. My question is could this be the year without a hurricane (Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf)? 
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gatorcane
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Re: It's Late August, Will We See 13/8/3 By November 30th?
ninel conde wrote:Hurricane_Luis wrote:Hurricane_Luis=20/7/4 )Final ACE:160
I doubt it, I'd Probably put it down to 9/2/1 ACE: 85
close to mine. i dropped to 9/2/0. i see no end to the dry air and no sign of a positive MJO. i dont know what CSU or bastardi are seeing. we need a huge pattern change. we need to see a huge cold front sweep this non stop rain off the east coast for good. my best analog year would be 1993 where the rain never ended in the central states.
Not sure about 1993 but I can see 2001 being a close analog. For one reason SST anomalies across both EPAC and Atlantic basin are very close to what we saw back then at this very same time (see "Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies" thread). Plus that season saw a late start as far as hurricane formation is concerned where it took until September to get our first hurricane.
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