Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Alyono]

My thoughts...


maybe a 2001 type season... but nothing hyperactive at this point

still could have several hurricanes

[Fego]

I can't believe the amount of people that are declaring this entire season a non-entity.

Did you know that this is JUST the beginning of the ramp-up? Did you know that September is the busiest month? Did you know that there have been plenty of seasons where August was average to below average and September ended up being a record-breaker?

Remember that we do NOT have an El Niño this year. This factor is very much the MAIN factor that precludes development in seasons. There's been LOTS of neutral years that didn't really get going until September. One strong storm forming early in the season does not guarantee a strong season, the same way that lots of weak systems early on DO NOT indicate the season will be weak.

The Atlantic tropics are known to do a 180 degree turn in 2-3 days time. I've seen this plenty of times. Even if we don't see an above-average August, I will fear for September. Mark my words.

Hey, glad to read you again. I was wondering if everything was ok with you. Btw, your words are marked.

[SouthFloridian92]

For some reason, I find it hilarious that the season has been so quiet. I find myself laughing when I read these threads.

[MGC]

I for one is starting to have my doubts that my forecast numbers are going to be met. We will have to have an hyperactive next couple of months...possible but I doubt it......MGC

[caneman]

I remember that year well. Gabrielle hit us I believe the day after 9/11. Was Gabrielle in fact upgraded to a Hurricane? The link show it as a 80 mph Hurricane. At the time - it was listed as a 70 mph T.S.

[Sanibel]

Gabrielle was something because it came right after 9-11 and was like an addition to the shock. I remember tracking it. It started as hovering low pressure over west Florida that migrated out over the Gulf, developed, and turned back around towards us. I remember the blue lightning of transformer pops and the giant wind surges followed by lapses one after the other. That was a tree-shaker here mostly.


That thunderstorm complex west of Key West looks like it has a tiny spin.

[cycloneye]

Here is what Dr Jeff Masters has to say about the 2013 Atlantic season so far and how he sees things in the next few weeks.

We've had five named storms so far in the Atlantic this year, which is more that average for this point in the season. Usually, the fifth named storm does not arrive until August 31. However, we are well behind average for the arrival of the season's first hurricane, which usually occurs by August 10. The season's second hurricane usually arrives by August 28. It is questionable if we will see the season's first hurricane by that date, given the current lack of activity, the dry air moving across the Tropical Atlantic, and the lack of model predictions for tropical storm formation this week. Still, I'm not willing to downgrade the seasonal forecasts for above-average activity yet, as we are still three weeks away from the usual September 10 peak in activity, and the Atlantic is capable of getting very active in a hurry.

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, I didn't realize that we are well behind average of the season's first hurricane. That's interesting. I agree with him though that we don't want to downgrade the forecasted numbers, quite yet. Although I think if we get no additional storms in the next week and 1/2 , THEN it will be time......We'll see.....

[NDG]

My thoughts...


maybe a 2001 type season... but nothing hyperactive at this point

still could have several hurricanes

Very good analog year, IMO, regarding how that season also had dry stable air in the Atlantic.

[gatorcane]

Africa seems to be lacking waves/disturbances looking at the sat images from the continent today, not what you would expect as we head into late August. Still plenty of time for things to change as we head towards the peak of Sept 10th.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

This is the Preliminary Global Hazards and Benefits Outlook from NOAA for this and the upcoming week. They think things may start to change by next week in the MDR in terms of tropical cyclone activity.



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[RainbowAppleJackDash]

This is the Preliminary Global Hazards and Benefits Outlook from NOAA for this and the upcoming week. They think things may start to change by next week in the MDR in terms of tropical cyclone activity.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

And that's why we'll see a Humberto come the 31st. BUT...
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I was reading CSU aug. 15-31 update. They said we are going in phase 1-2 of the MJO. I have no idea what the heck that means but it's suppose to be a more favorable enviroment in the tropics. So far I haven't seen that occuring. Anyone like to elaborate on that subject.

[ninel conde]

I was reading CSU aug. 15-31 update. They said we are going in phase 1-2 of the MJO. I have no idea what the heck that means but it's suppose to be a more favorable enviroment in the tropics. So far I haven't seen that occuring. Anyone like to elaborate on that subject.

i dont see it either

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I was reading CSU aug. 15-31 update. They said we are going in phase 1-2 of the MJO. I have no idea what the heck that means but it's suppose to be a more favorable enviroment in the tropics. So far I haven't seen that occuring. Anyone like to elaborate on that subject.

The MJO, or Madden-Julian Oscillation, is a wave of either enhanced lift and precipitation -- the upward pulse -- or decreased lift and sinking air -- the downward pulse -- that travels across the globe every month or so. It [the upward pulse] is a good kicker for tropical cyclone development because it suppresses stable air and lowers pressures. Specific regions of the world are broken into Octants -- 2 and 3 denote the Indian Ocean, 4 and 5 denote the Maritime Continent, 6 and 7 denote the West Pacific, and, most importantly, Octants 8 and 1 denote the East Pacific and Atlantic. Currently, a downward pulse of the MJO is located across the Atlantic...and has been for most of this season. However, an upward pulse of the MJO is currently amplifying in the West Pacific and aiding in the development of the monsoonal monster otherwise known as Tropical Storm Trami. This MJO pulse will be propagating eastward over the next few days, and should begin to have an impact on the West Atlantic by early next week. It will encompass the central and eastern Atlantic, as well as Africa, for the peak of the season. This is a VERY favorable setup for activity in the Atlantic.

@TropicalTidbits 7m
We're only 1 or 2 dud waves away from a period during which almost every strong wave off Africa should try to develop. Big September coming.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I think CSU thought the timing of the moist MJO would be now. I guess it's hard to figure the timing or magnitude of these pulses as they move around the earth. Look out Sept. if it verifies.

[Kingarabian]

So I guess forecasters are banking big on September?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I think it should be stated that SAL is not the issue this year. There have been outbreaks, yes, but with a weaker trade wind belt and moist flow off Africa, the issue seems to be strictly stable air. And that stable air is likely due to two reasons...the expansive high we've seen this season and the lack of a substantial upward MJO pulse. Once we get the latter next week, stable air should be less of an issue.

[CrazyC83]

We should have a poll on how many storms will form in September.

I'm going all in and saying we break a record with 9 named storms - including 5 hurricanes and 2 majors.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

We should have a poll on how many storms will form in September.

I'm going all in and saying we break a record with 9 named storms - including 5 hurricanes and 2 majors.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Poll for September will be up on Saturday 24th so get ready to vote.