2013 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

Juliette/Kiko



Larger system here



Weakening, but Wali is forming in CPHC AOR (or Ana if 91C will form)

[Yellow Evan]

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH LITTLE
OR NO DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD.

[hurricanes1234]

With the CPAC on steroids right now, possibly due to the MJO, could that be moving into the EPAC for the last week of August?

Yes, that is expected to happen. So the eastern half of the basin will be on steroids

So this may be the 2013 version of last year, when Hurricanes Daniel, Emilia and Fabio all formed in an 8-day period. Maybe we'll see something similar to this, no?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hurricane_Luis]

And to the west of 94E this:

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH LITTLE
OR NO DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD.

[Yellow Evan]

With the CPAC on steroids right now, possibly due to the MJO, could that be moving into the EPAC for the last week of August?

Yes, that is expected to happen. So the eastern half of the basin will be on steroids

So this may be the 2013 version of last year, when Hurricanes Daniel, Emilia and Fabio all formed in an 8-day period. Maybe we'll see something similar to this, no?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think 2 storms is more likely, not 3. And they IMO, won't be as strong.

But wtf at the CPHC AOR, 3-C has formed, 3rd system in like 5 days.

[hurricanes1234]

Yes, if this really does occur, it will bring the 2013 Pacific hurricane season to life. However, as you rightfully pointed out, they may just end up being two weak systems or Category 1s. So even after this, our strongest storm may still be tiny Henriette. Or, they could intensify further and become one or two major hurricanes. The latter seems a lot less likely, given the current trends. I would give it a 10-15% chance of this happening.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Yes, if this really does occur, it will bring the 2013 Pacific hurricane season to life.

It's been alive for quite awhile. Including CPAC storms, we are on to the fastest 10-named storm start since 1994.

[CrazyC83]

The CPAC is on fire right now, when was the last time so much activity so fast?

[cycloneye]

5 PM PDT TWO.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH LITTLE
OR NO DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD.

[Kingarabian]

CrazyC83, that could be the system that forms in the eastern part of the CPAC.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: CrazyC83, that could be the system that forms in the eastern part of the CPAC.

???

Anhow, you know what time of day it is. Yep, model fix time.




4th Fujiwara of the year? This year is the year of Fuiwara's



Yo Kiko, you just wanna be a tropical storm. Fine with me.



Oh, now you wanna be a real system. :rolls:



Entering shut down mode?



CMC, really:P



Okay, a little better.

[hurricanes1234]

Thanks so much for the model fixes. Seems to me like that 986 mbar low might probably just be a small 75-80 mph hurricane. But I do understand where you're coming from, after all, it'll be nice to finally see something strong, especially those harmless storms for the fishes!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Thanks so much for the model fixes. Seems to me like that 986 mbar low might probably just be a small 75-80 mph hurricane. But I do understand where you're coming from, after all, it'll be nice to finally see something strong, especially those harmless storms for the fishes!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It won't be a harmless storm for the fishes. That storm the CMC shows if it were to continue beyond 240 hours, it would slam into Baja. 94E could affect land as well.

[gatorcane]

Appears to be getting active again in the EPAC while the Atlantic continues to remain DEAD as far as the tropics are concerned.

It's like an el nino year (so far) without an actual el nino

[Yellow Evan]

I was looking at http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml, but it seems that most seasons that are at borderline La Nina state (we are somewhat close at cold neutral) during the summer months, actually are not that inactive in the EPAC. 2008 was at -0.5 at MJJ and -0.3 at JJA and got 17 storms. 2000 was at -0.6 in JJA and and got 19 storms. 1985 was at -0.5 (borderline La Nina) and got 24 storms. So, am I on to something here? Or am I going insane? Because this is the only thing I can think of for the increased activity (as I've said, this is the fastest 10 storm start since 1994 counting the CPAC storms).

Disclaimer: The posts (in this case it's a theory) in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the CPC and NWS products.

[Ntxw]

I think we are over thinking ENSO here on EPAC/CPAC activity . It is enso neutral which means not El Nino or La Nina so really it could be active or inactive nothing that points either which way. Stuff like the MJO and Kelvin waves play a bigger role, which I have yet to fully understand in seasons like this.

[Yellow Evan]

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD.



Another CPAC invesT?



Juliette appears to form slowly (no TC here)



Further east than in past runs, but Juliete is here.



GFS, you are being sent home. You are drunk How in the world in a day does the storm go OMG LETS TURN EAST when you are near Sinaloa.



Kiko=boring. I doubt this will materialize IMO, it's common for models to show stuff in the EPAC in the long range.

[Yellow Evan]

I did not post earlier as none of the models looked interesting.



Disturbance of what become Juliete



Neat little storm. Looks a bit like Jimena 09, not at that destruction level of course.



A little weaker.



Unfourtanetly intensifying



Classic



A little weaker



Falling apart.



Bye

[hurricanes1234]

This is just my ameteur opinion, but this system may become a Category 2, if the model is saying that the lowest pressure is below 978 mbar. What model is this, and what is the lowest pressure in the picture above the 978 mbar one? I can't see the lowest pressure here, is it 974 mbar?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

This is just my ameteur opinion, but this system may become a Category 2, if the model is saying that the lowest pressure is below 978 mbar. What model is this, and what is the lowest pressure in the picture above the 978 mbar one? I can't see the lowest pressure here, is it 974 mbar?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Read the image It says so on the top, right? As for intensity, it is the mid-range and pressures with models don't always correspond to intensity. Above that, I can't tell, it got cut off.