Global model runs discussion

[HurrMark]

12Z shows zilch until the very last day of the month, when a weak TS may form off the African coast (which appears to quickly go into fishie land).

I am with Alyono...it would not surprise me to see nothing until September. This could be the quietest August since 1997. There is virutally no moisture anywhere to work with, and while things should be ramping up, it is as dead as a doornail.

I wonder if SAL is as important if not more important than El Nino for storm activity. It is quite amazing that only a decade ago, no one outside those in research had even heard of SAL (and even today, it is not as widely known as El Nino). I also wonder if there is SAL data for 1997. There was plenty of shear that year, but I wonder if SAL had some contribution.

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC shows a Cape Verde system moving W to WSW southwest of the Cape Verde Islands at 240 hours:

[CrazyC83]

What about storms of non-tropical origins coming off the CONUS, could any of them threaten to develop?

[Hammy]

I see that as Aug 30 gets closer that the GFS has dropped the storm its been showing for that date.

[tolakram]

GFS at 312 hours (September 1st)

[ninel conde]

What about storms of non-tropical origins coming off the CONUS, could any of them threaten to develop?

not likely unless the east coast flood pattern ends fast and a high locks in over new england.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at end of run.

[USTropics]

The 0z GFS, NAVGEM, and CMC are showing a decent easterly wave exiting Africa in ~90 hours.

[cycloneye]

Last frame of 06z GFS shows a hurricane close to Leewards. This will change every 6 hours as the long range timeframes always do. The only thing consistent by GFS is showing this TC in different forms of tracks and intensity in past runs.

[otowntiger]

Last frame of 06z GFS shows a hurricane close to Leewards. This will change every 6 hours as the long range timeframes always do. The only thing consistent by GFS is showing this TC in different forms of tracks and intensity in past runs.

http://oi44.tinypic.com/s5k96g.jpg

Wow!!! is that 16 days out?? I didn't realize we had models that tried to prognosticate that far in advance. I'm sure its about like throwing a handful of darts at a map, blindfolded.

[Hammy]

I see something on the 24th as well. Am I actually seeing the GFS showing something within four days for once?

[gatorcane]

Look what the 12Z GFS is showing 159 hours from now..develops much sooner than this. Could be a real system to track:

[Hammy]

I think this is the first time it's shown a decent intensity storm within 3-4 days for two consecutive runs in quite awhile.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS has run. We do see a storm it develops but it looks very fishy. This is how the run ends below. Nothing else out there for the next 16 days (September 5):

[Alyono]

the GFS develops 2 storms, possible canes. The first forms in 5 days in the E Atl, but gets too far north too quickly and weakens. By the time it reaches the islands, it's a wave again

[gatorcane]

Yeah I did miss that one. Here at 288 hours you can see them both. There is the one approaching the Northern Leewards and weakening and the one further east recurves into fishland. This is far out there so the tracks and whether they even form will change in subsequent runs:

[Fego]

Weakens like this, over PR, but we are talking about 312 hours. Too much unreliable, though is the second run with that scenario.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Blown Away]

Yeah I did miss that one. Here at 288 hours you can see them both. There is the one approaching the Northern Leewards and weakening and the one further east recurves into fishland. This is far out there so the tracks and whether they even form will change in subsequent runs:

The low near the islands is the one that has waivered in intensity, but the track has continued on a general WNW track across the Atlantic and now near/over NE Caribbean islands...06z GFS had this low a lot stronger...

[Riptide]

Definitely two "cream of the crop" systems on the 12z GFS, and way before 384 hours.

[Alyono]

Now... I also do not believe the GFS

Convective feedback from the monsoon trough yet again most likely. CMC shows no development