Tropical Wave in NW Caribbean/Yucatan (Is Invest 95L)

[floridasun78]

Is this one of the modelled EPAC storms?

what talking about??

[Gustywind]

8 PM Discussion.


A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N67W TO
10N66W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
MOISTURE MAXIMUM ACCORDING TO SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

[Gustywind]

2 AM Discussion.


TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N68W TO 22N68W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM
ACCORDING TO TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM 10N-23N
BETWEEN 62W-68W. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A WEAK 700 MB
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF THE SW
NORTH ATLC IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE WAVE
AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 67W-
70W.
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 68W AND A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS THE
SE CARIBBEAN REMAINS FOCAL POINTS FOR THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY.

[Gustywind]

8 AM Discussion.


TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N72W TO 24N70W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM
ACCORDING TO TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM 14N-23N
BETWEEN 64W-70W. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A WEAK 700 MB
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND
PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 68W-72W.
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 71W AND A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM
12N69W TO 17N65W REMAIN FOCAL POINTS FOR THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 65W-
68W.

[nautical wheeler]

Nice little blow up of convection for a change. Let's see if it holds up.

[cycloneye]

Looks interesting. By the way the tail end has dumped over 5 inches in Patillas, PR in the SE part of island.

[RL3AO]

OMG THERES A THUNDERSTORM IN THE CARIBBEAN!

[nautical wheeler]

OMG THERES A THUNDERSTORM IN THE CARIBBEAN!

And there's a thread about it.

[Gustywind]

Looks interesting. By the way the tail end has dumped over 5 inches in Patillas, PR in the SE part of island.
http://oi39.tinypic.com/2cqfv5k.jpg

Thanks for this info . 5 inches... that's a lot !

[floridasun78]

that area dont look tropical i bet part ull and tropical wave in that area

[ROCK]

it's tropical...some low level rotation is on the western edge of the convection....you can see some inflow of the low level clouds...however there is some monster shear nearby...

might be what developes in the extreme BOC as shown with the EURO, GFS and CMC...IDK...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[ROCK]

RAMM has a floater on it

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[gatorcane]

Well this is the time of year all blobs need watching.

I know the NAVGEM was sending this WNW with alot of land interaction and was developing it in the Bahamas but that was a couple of days ago and has since dropped that solution. None of the models are doing much with it.

[nautical wheeler]

Definitely some shear or something that's hindering development and inflow on the northern side - not sure - but the "southern" side looks pretty healthy to my novice eyes. Not a lot of Northern or Western component yet to the inflow. I'm thinking we should see those clouds over the Haitian mountains begin to get sucked into the convection at some point if there is indeed rotation. It certainly looks tropical and appears to have some guts to it.

Just an amateur here wanting something to look at.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[baytownwx]

What Larry Cosgrove stated about this TW on facebook

[beoumont]

This blow-up along an existing easterly wave, if it persists, would have a chance to develop if the 200 mb. high in the central Caribbean does not move steadily westward as is forecast; or if the high expands eastward as it moves. Development genesis is not that uncommon in northerly flow aloft; but it only continues if the disturbance soon gets under more diffluent flow, or creates its own "hat" (upper high).

Below is 18z 200 analysis:

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD:

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM N OF
HISPANIOLA AT 21N70W TO THE COAST OF NW VENEZUELA AT 11N71W
MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE
MAXIMUM ACCORDING TO SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A
LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 66W-71W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 70W-73W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
N VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 70W-74W.

[ROCK]

This blob is using the monsoon trof down over SA to drawn in some mid-level moisture. You can see it on the RAMM floater visble the streaming thickening of clouds from the south moving towards it. Yes, I know clouds have warmed but its DMIN and the thing is still kicking. Thats got to count for something....

go blob go!!

[gatorcane]

We see some low-level vorticity with this wave this evening, on the western side of the blob:

[tropicwatch]

Really has blown up, wonder if they will give an Invest number in the next TWO or at 7am?