WPAC: Tropical Storm Trami (12W) (Maring PAGASA)

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Storm Trami

[vrif]

ASCAT pass through the eye. Also, CWB has sent recon into TRAMI.

[vrif]

OSCAT pass of TRAMI's left portion

[vrif]

Upgraded to STS

WTPQ20 RJTD 191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1312 TRAMI (1312) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191800UTC 20.1N 128.1E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM SOUTH 90NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 201800UTC 23.2N 125.9E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 211800UTC 25.3N 122.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 221800UTC 26.4N 116.7E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[Alyono]

seems as if a rainband has caused significant flooding in Manila

[mrbagyo]

large but partially exposed circulation



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Alyono]

satellite data show it is nearly a typhoon. Last multi-platform analysis had 59 KT of wind

[mrbagyo]

exposed

[Pleasing05]

^ Isn't circulation exposure usually a sign that the storm MAY weaken?

starting to move now. hoping it moves fast, monsoon rains are killing us here in Manila

[RobWESTPACWX]

This radar timelapse tells the story about the extreme floods in Manila.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tIZ9mMXbQYE[/youtube]

[euro6208]

direct hit for taipei...

1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 013
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 21.9N 128.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N 128.5E


WDPN32 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (TRAMI) WARNING NR
13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 279 NM
SOUTHWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE, ON A 192121Z SSMIS
IMAGE AND RECENT POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD, AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. TS 12W IS MAKING A POLEWARD-TO-
WESTWARD TURN AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCES SWITCHES FROM A
STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED EAST OF THE SYSTEM A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE EAST CHINA SEA AND WESTERN JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 12W IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD AS THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM SWITCHES TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GENERALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THE JGSM,
COAMPS-TC, GFDN, AND JAPANESE ENSEMBLE DEPICT A WESTWARD TRACK THAT
LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF A GFS/NAVGEM/ECMWF/UKMET MODEL
GROUPING. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE STEERING RIDGE AND STRONG
EASTERLY STEERING FLOW TO THE NORTH, THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE
SOUTHERN MODEL GROUPING AND LIES JUST SOUTH AND AHEAD OF THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE CURRENT FORECAST,
THE CURRENT MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AND PREVIOUS FORECASTS, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. TS 12W IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS STRONG WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND
PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER OFFSET PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. PASSAGE OVER LAND AFTER TAU 36 WILL
HALT THE INTENSIFICATION TREND AND RESULT IN DISSIPATION AFTER THE
SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL IN CHINA.//
NNNN

[vrif]

OSCAT 0355Z pass.

[vrif]

CWB recon data for Trami are out.
http://typhoon.as.ntu.edu.tw/DOTSTAR/en ... .php?id=66

Code: Select all

NO.   TIME   Longitude   Latitude   DIST   WD   WS   MBL   WL150
1   2013/08/19 10:13:48   125.3   23.4   486   344   ---   9.1   9.5
2   2013/08/19 10:27:54   126.6   22.5   320   354   ---   7.9   7.7
3   2013/08/19 10:38:49   127.5   21.7   199   034   ---   8.3   7.5
4   2013/08/19 10:52:19   128.9   22.3   243   102   ---   8.5   8.2
5   2013/08/19 11:20:19   131.9   23.0   476   140   ---   9.4   9.8
6   2013/08/19 11:33:10   131.0   22.1   341   141   12.6   10.1   10.2
7   2013/08/19 11:42:42   129.9   21.6   226   122   ---   12.4   11.7

[Pleasing05]

cloud coverage is just unbelievable

[vrif]

Oscat 1452Z pass. Large wind field around Trami.

[phwxenthusiast]

looks like Trami's making a run at typhoon status... radar representation is becoming better by the hour, although it hasn't translated at the surface winds yet (Miyako reporting around 50kph sustained)... better outflow and warm OHC, i think a high-end Cat 1 is still possible in the next 12 hours...



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[phwxenthusiast]

looks like the center tracked over (or just north of) Miyakojima--it recorded a pressure of 968hPa...

[RL3AO]

looks like the center tracked over (or just north of) Miyakojima--it recorded a pressure of 968hPa...

Very close to typhoon status, if its not there already.

[Alyono]

I would say this is a typhoon for sure now.

Also, that rainband is STILL producing flooding rainfall for Manila

[vrif]

I am not sure if JMA will further upgrade Trami.

WTPQ20 RJTD 210000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1312 TRAMI (1312)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210000UTC 25.2N 124.4E GOOD
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 240NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 220000UTC 26.7N 118.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 230000UTC 27.8N 114.5E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =